Today we are going to look at the corner outfield position over the next few years and how it could possibly play out or the Reds. Jay Bruce is locked up through 2017 (team option for 2017), so he isn’t likely going anywhere. Left field though is currently held down by Ryan Ludwick, but he could be a free agent after the 2014 season (though he does have a mutual option for the 2015 season). While it may seem a bit similar to the State of the Farm series, the purpose here is to look at the current Reds and the contract status of the players at each position and get into potential internal replacements for when those current Reds contracts expire.
Expires after the 2014 season: Ryan Ludwick (possibly)
As noted above, Ryan Ludwick has a mutual option for the 2015 season, and it is probably going to be picked up unless he just completely falls apart. The buyout is $4.5M and they could keep him at for $9M. With his shoulder injury there is a chance they could let him walk as some guys don’t return to form or even close to it after injuries like that, but with what it would cost to keep him versus letting him walk, it is a safe bet that he will return for 2015.
Potential corner outfielders to come up during or after the 2014 season: Josh Fellhauer, Donald Lutz, Yorman Rodriguez and Bryson Smith.
The two favorites here have to be Donald Lutz and Yorman Rodriguez due to their placement on the 40-man roster. Lutz spent time on the bench for the Reds last season due in large part to the Ryan Ludwick injury leaving the Reds short handed (as well as another injury). Yorman Rodriguez has less time in the upper levels than anyone on the list, but he also has the biggest tools of the guys on the list. Josh Fellhauer has spent the most time in Triple-A in his career, but he is also mostly a platoon player who has seen most of his playing time over the last two seasons come solely against right handed pitchers. Bryson Smith has spent two half seasons in Pensacola over the last two seasons, losing half this past year to injury.
Most likely to take over: Yorman Rodriguez
It is a bit of a toss up between Rodriguez and Lutz here, but I think in the long run Rodriguez has a better chance because of his defense. While Lutz is a solid defender in left, Rodriguez is simply a better fielder who at this point in his career can still play some center field. At the plate, both guys have things they need to improve upon, which is why I lean with the defensive advantage to make this pick.
Wild card pick: Bryson Smith
Smith would be a bit of a wild card to take over, but he has shown good contact rates, good defense and good speed in his minor league career.
Expires after the 2015 season: Ryan Ludwick
As noted above, Ludwick could become a free agent after the 2014 season but with the amount of his buyout, it seems likely that it gets picked up by both parties and he returns for his final year in 2015.
Potential corner outfielders to take over after the 2015 season: Juan Duran, Phillip Ervin, Kyle Waldrop and Jesse Winker.
Juan Duran is the only player on this list that is currently on the 40-man roster, but I am not sure that he is the most likely option even with that giving him a notch up over the rest. Duran made improvements in 2013, but he still has several parts of his game that need big improvements. With that said, he has some tools to work with including the biggest power potential in the organization. Kyle Waldrop spent his season in Bakersfield where he showed off his power with 57 extra-base hits. Phillip Ervin was drafted in 2013 but he is as polished as a draft pick comes, so pushing him that quickly may be doable after hitting .331 with power in his first season. Jesse Winker followed up an outstanding 2012 with another strong year in Dayton where he hit 16 home runs while hitting .281.
Most likely to take over during or after the 2015 season: Phillip Ervin
I think it is likely a toss up between Ervin and Winker here and realistically whoever is ready first could get the spot. I went with Ervin for much of the same reason I went with Rodriguez above, while both Ervin and Winker have good bats that project similarly, Ervin like Rodriguez gets an edge defensively because at this point in his career he can still play center which gives him big range in the corners, while Winker is a solid defender the defensive edge gets Ervin the nod here.
Wild card pick: Juan Duran
Juan Duran seems like the longest bet of the group because he is still working on so many aspects of his game, but if he continues to improve at the plate and can hone his defensive tools and turn them into skills, he has a chance to stick.
For more from this series, click here.