Coming into the 2014 season the Reds top prospect in the system was RHP Robert Stephenson. Fast forward three months and things haven’t changed much in terms of who is the top prospect in the system, though things haven’t been smooth sailing for Stephenson. The 21-year-old right hander has a 4.24 ERA in 87.0 innings pitched for Pensacola to go along with 45 walks and 87 strikeouts.
His home and road splits have also been quite strange during the season. Let’s take a look at them.
| Split | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB | K | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Home | 3.54 | 48.1 | 34 | 9 | 23 | 55 | 1.18 | 11.2% | 26.7% |
| Away | 5.12 | 38.2 | 35 | 1 | 22 | 32 | 1.47 | 12.8% | 18.6% |
Two things really jump out. First, nine home runs allowed at home and just one on the road. Second is the big boost in strikeouts at home, or well, more accurately the lack of strikeouts on the road. The home runs can be explained for the most part. We know that left field and left-center in Pensacola are an absolute launching pad because of how the wind comes off of Pensacola Bay and pushes the ball out. There is probably some small amount of luck going into it, but it’s not a surprise at all that the ball is flying in Pensacola more than it is on the road. The lack of strikeouts on the road is more interesting and honestly not something that is easily explained.
Numbers aside, what is the scouting information behind his 2014 season so far? There is some stuff that is the same and some things that are a little bit different. Let’s take a look.
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Fastball | The bread and butter pitch for Stephenson is still in that 93-98 MPH range that touches 100 at times. He has brought out a two-seamer every now and again in the 91-93 MPH range, but usually goes with the 4-seamer at the higher velocity.
Curveball | This is where we see some differences from last year, sort of. In the early part of last year, Stephenson threw a bigger breaking curveball, but as the season reached the midpoint and later in the season it became a shorter breaking ball. This season it is back to being a big breaking ball with more break to it.
Change Up | A pitch he doesn’t go to as often as the others, but it has improved this season over last year. It will come in from 84-89 MPH depending on the day. At times it can still be a bit too firm.
Other | The stuff is pretty similar from 2013 to 2014. The results simply aren’t and the biggest reason for that has been control. When Stephenson was on top of his game last year he had fastball command and solid control of his offspeed stuff. This season he has shown iffy fastball control and has really struggled to throw the offspeed stuff, particularly the curveball, for strikes. It has led to a big increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts as more hitters are able to sit on his fastball than they were able to do in the past.
Stephenson is going to need to find better control off the breaking ball than he has shown here in 2014. His fastball control could also use some improvement. Both have taken a step backwards from where they were in 2013, though once he came back from his hamstring injury in 2013 the control wasn’t quite what it was before the injury and it’s been another step back in 2014. He has been the second youngest pitcher in the league to make more than four starts this season, so it’s understandable that he has had some struggles. With that said, I don’t think the struggles have as much to do with him adjusting to the level with opposing hitters being better as much as it has to do with things he is well within control of.
Coming into the season I had thought he was likely to be ready by the later part of the 2014 season, but the control issues have been a big problem for the right hander and pushes his timetable back a little bit, to some point in the 2015 season and that is only if he can find a way to throw more strikes.
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