ESPN’s Keith Law released his farm system rankings yesterday, shoving the Reds to the back half of the league at #17. Today he released his Top 100 prospects in the game and had just two Reds on the list.
Law ranked Jesse Winker at #40 in all of baseball. Law seems to love his plate approach and thinks he will be an elite on-base machine in baseball and hit 20 homers. It’s a strange ranking for someone with that profile if that’s what he actually believes. Four players in baseball had 20 HR and a .390+ OBP last season. Winker’s a left fielder, so I get that, but he’s projected to be an elite level bat by Law in his write up – you’d think a higher ranking would be in order.
Robert Stephenson came in at #49 on the list. Law says he’s got #1 potential with the big fastball and curveball combination but he’s not a fan of the change up (I believe, and apparently everyone else does from the national scene that it’s quite a bit better than Law does) and questions whether he’s a future starter or reliever. The control is a concern for Law, and that’s understandable. Stephenson will have to throw more strikes moving forward, but he’s shown that he can do that in the past.
Michael Lorenzen, nor Raisel Iglesias would made the list (Editors note: Law does not include Raisel Iglesias as a prospect for some reason, so he was not eligible for the list), which are the two other Reds prospects that I’d imagine will show up on other national lists if the Reds have others make them (even though I’m clearly the low man on the Iglesias totem-pole – I just need to see him work as a starter before ranking him ahead of guys I know can start – but that hasn’t stopped others from ranking him highly among the teams prospects).
Winker’s ranking seems to be about where I’d expect to see him on other lists. I doubt he’s outside of the Top 50 on any of the national lists, but I’d be surprised to see him inside the Top 25 on them as well (he gets dinged for being a left fielder). Stephenson being at #49 seems low to me and I think it will be the lowest of his national rankings. Law seems to hold a belief on Stephenson that you just aren’t reading elsewhere (mostly about that change up, which gives Law a thought that he is a reliever – no one else is talking like that). I’d look to see him in the 20-40 range on the other national lists when they come out.