In this weeks minor league notebook we are going to look at outfielder Aristides Aquino and reliever Carlos Contreras.
Aristides Aquino
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After having a huge season in 2014 with the Billings Mustangs, the outfielder has gotten off to a relatively slow start with the Dayton Dragons. He’s hitting .231/.295/.282 through 11 games. It’s incredibly early and the numbers don’t really mean much. Last season, despite the strong season, his aggressiveness at the plate was apparent. In 2014 he had just 15 walks and 66 strikeouts, a rate that suggests he was very aggressive or that he had some problems with pitch recognition. It was very obvious that when he hit the ball, he made it count. But the underlying question was would his approach/pitch recognition work at the next level. It’s still early, so we can’t be sure, but we can look at the approach so far.
I was able to go back and chart four games worth of at-bats for Aquino. He went one-for the four games, so the results on that basis simply aren’t good. But we are more interested in looking at his approach here and for that, we don’t need to see hits to know the approach. He swung at 58% of the pitches he saw, which in itself is pretty aggressive and would rank among the most aggressive rates in all of Major League Baseball if we simply looked at the percentage of pitches swung at. Small sample size – of course – but in this span there was a whole lot of swinging.
It didn’t take opposing pitchers long to figure out he will expand the zone. They began going to fastballs and breaking balls outside of the zone with regularity and even breaking balls in the zone. Aquino struggled on most of them, but absolutely crushed one – but sent it just foul. Overall, at least from what I’ve seen thus far this season, he’s going to need to make big improvements on breaking pitches both in terms of laying off of them and in hitting ones that are in the zone. He’s going to be 21-years-old on Wednesday, so while he’s still young, he’s not THAT young either. There’s time to make the improvements, but they will be key to his future. Pitchers are noticing they can get him out on them already and he’s going to have to make the adjustment.
While there’s plenty of negative above, there’s a lot to like as well. When he hits the ball, he really hits the ball. He’s lean, with room to add some more muscle, his bat is quick and he gets good leverage on his swings. He’s got plenty of speed to work with and he’s got a strong arm in the field. The bat is what he’s known for though, and it’s something that’s going to need some work moving forward. His pitch recognition skills aren’t strong at this point in his career and as he continues to face better pitching – particularly pitchers who can throw the ball where they want, it’s going to be a struggle without improvement in realizing what pitch is coming sooner and being able to lay off of the ones well outside of the zone.
Carlos Contreras
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen has had plenty of troubles this season, as you likely already know. Everyone seems to be looking to Louisville for help and right now, looking at the stats, one guy stands out from the group. Carlos Contreras has a 1.69 ERA in 5.1 innings with one walk and 10 strikeouts.
The numbers are outstanding. Contreras was in the big leagues last season, but he struggled with his control, walking 17 batters in 19.1 innings, but also struck out 19 batters. He flashed plenty of stuff, but the control simply wasn’t there.
One walk this season and 10 strikeouts in 5.1 innings is a big step up from his past. Of course it’s an extremely small sample size (there’s that phrase again).
To this point in the season the stuff is still very present, throwing 92-94 and touching 96 (he touched 98 in the big leagues last season). The curveball can still be a good pitch and his change up is still very good looking.
The control, however, is still a concern. While there is only one walk and 10 strikeouts in the stat line, the numbers don’t tell the story. He’s really struggled to throw strikes with all of his pitches. Even when he is throwing strikes he’s commanding the strikezone poorly, missing his spots very often.
While the numbers are nice and shiny, if he came to the Major Leagues with the same stuff and control, it would likely be a repeat of what we saw last season. When he throws strikes, he could be successful, but it’s not going to happen enough for him to be an upgrade right now.
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