Entering the 2015 season Robert Stephenson was ranked as the top prospect in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. That ranking didn’t come without a concern or two. In the 2014 season, while he showed top end stuff, he had his struggles as well. His walk rate was higher than you’d like to see and his ERA and home run rate weren’t good. The latter two things were related, and I do think that the right hander just ran into trouble in a homer friendly ballpark in Pensacola. The Blue Wahoos pitching staff allowed 60% more home runs at home than on the road, and that’s been the story since the park opened. If we look at the road numbers for Stephenson in 2014 we see he allowed just five home runs in 71.2 innings. That takes away concerns, at least for me, on the home run issues following him. That leaves the issue of the walks. 74 walks in 136.1 innings is simply too many walks.
Fastforward to the 2015 season and we’ve seen two starts for the fireballing right hander. The bad news is that his ERA is 6.55 through the two starts. The good news is that the right hander has four walks and sixteen strikeouts in 11.0 innings pitched with just one home run allowed. Obviously the ERA is going to need to come down, but it’s going to really come down if he continues along with what he’s been able to do thus far. On the season he’s allowed 15 base runners and eight of them have scored. That leaves his stranded runner rate at just 47% so far this season. The average rate is 72%. When that normalizes, that ERA is going to drop and drop significantly.
With a walk rate of 8.7% so far, it’s a big drop off from the 12.3% rate he had in 2014. His strikeout rate is also up from 2014, jumping up from 23.3% to 34.8%. It’s a very small sample size of just two starts, but to this point in the season the Reds top pitching prospect has shown an improved walk rate and an improved strikeout rate. Only an incredibly low strand rate is making his quick start look rough. The underlying signs all point to a strong start. Being able to keep up the lower walk rate and much higher strikeout rate aren’t given, but the early results are good to see.