The Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List is officially completed. If you somehow missed it, you can see the list here (or at the top of the site under Prospect Rankings). With all that comes along with a prospect list, there are certainly tons of questions from everyone. I’ve answered plenty of questions in the comments sections of the articles, but now that the entire list is out, there may be questions about why someone is ranked somewhere else compared to another guy or why someone wasn’t ranked in the Top 25.
That’s where this article comes into play. From the time I hit publish until 6pm, I will be taking questions on the list from everyone. The format will be to leave a comment below and I will answer it here in the actual article (and delete it from the comments section once I’ve done so). I won’t be sitting at the computer the entire time, but will be checking in quite often to answer all of the questions.
Anyways, let’s get to it. Ask away.
Justin: Where would K.J. Franklin rank nowadays? He improved slightly this season.
I have him ranked at #30. He showed plenty of improvements during the season at the plate. He cut the strikeout rate some, improved the walk rate some and hit for a lot more power. There’s still some work to do, but he took a step or three in the right direction offensively. Defensively he looks like he’s going to be limited to first base moving forward, which dings his value a little bit.
Tom Gray: 2015 results aside, which are the two most baseball “talented” Reds MiLB prospects? One position player (OF, INF, C) and one pitcher (SP or RP).
I’ll assume that you are referring more to a guys raw abilities rather than current skillset which may have provided a guy with better numbers in 2015. For the position guys I’d have to say it comes down to a guy like Yorman Rodriguez, Junior Arias or Taylor Sparks. All three guys have above-average tools in several categories, big arms, good runners, some power potential. Ultimately, I think I will take Rodriguez, but all three are in the conversation and if someone else picked one of the other two, I wouldn’t argue much. For pitchers, I will give a starter and a reliever. Zack Weiss is an easy call on the relievers. While he may not have the best single pitch among any of his pitches, he’s throwing three quality pitches and has a fourth offering as well, and he can throw strikes. For a reliever, it’s tough to match that. The starters make things a bit tougher. Amir Garrett is clearly the most athletic of the bunch, which probably isn’t a surprise to anyone. Other guys are offering more pitches than he is, which could put them in the conversation. I’d probably say Garrett has the most upside, but it’s not by a whole lot over a few other guys.
Sam: What’s the outlook for Nick Howard and Jon Crawford?
For Nick Howard, it’s scary. While I haven’t looked very long, a scout I talked with while I was in Florida brought up that he can’t remember anyone ever recovering from such a bout of control problems. I certainly couldn’t recall it happening, but I didn’t look for all that long either. I’ve heard that it was more of a mental thing than a mechanical thing, but nothing from anyone with the Reds was saying much about it either, so I can’t be for sure exactly what was going on there. With Crawford, it’s scary in a different way. He essentially was shut down three different times this season with arm problems. That usually leads to something long term.
Greg: Seems that Blandino has above avg on-base ability and the skills that drive that are the probably the key to his future as a mlb regular – how does that skill play moving forward as pitchers get better? By the way, Travieso is pitching today on TV on MLB network
He seems to understand the strikezone fairly well, and that will certainly help him adjust to more advanced pitchers. He’s had some struggles at the Double-A level and is out to a rough start in the Arizona Fall League. We are working with a limited sample size here, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. With that said, I’ve always been a little lower on his bat than the general consensus, but I think he’s got a chance to hit enough to be a solid every day second baseman.
With Travieso, he’s no longer listed as the starter – Dylan Bundy is. On the AFL website they are still promoting it as Travieso, but their official twitter account listed Bundy less than an hour ago. Hopefully Travieso is following him in the game so we can get a good look.
Billy: 1) Which players (if any) in the system still have the upside to be MVP/Cy Young contenders if things break well for them? 2) Where did Barrett Astin fall in your rankings? He was very good in the first half, but struggled with control in the second half once bumped up to Pensacola. I expected to see him at the tail end of the top 20. Was he in consideration for the top 25? 3) There are a few position players at Billings that I thought were intriguing – Trahan, Bell, and Medina – that did not make your list. Were any of them under consideration and what should we expect of them in the future?
Billy is going with the three question format…. he’s been around for a while and knows the rules even when I didn’t post them. From the offensive side of things, I don’t know that anyone has that true “best player in the league” MVP kind of thing going on. But, I could see a few guys getting the “Jimmy Rollins” MVP where they put up a strong season on a winning team and take the award. Jesse Winker falls into that category. Phillip Ervin could do that. Maybe Yorman Rodriguez or Aristides Aquino. Taylor Sparks perhaps.
Barrett Astin fell outside of my 30. He wasn’t really considered for me in this range. I was really impressed with how much movement his fastball gets, but there just wasn’t enough in the overall package to rank him quite this highly.
For me, Reydel Medina was the one from those three that had the most going in the conversation. With that said, he’s clearly the most raw and unskilled of the bunch. He’s just got that loud power tool, where as the other two simply don’t have a tool anywhere close to that. Trahan and Bell were both considered, but fell just outside of the top 30.
Greg: Doug you noted in one of your comments that Zack Weiss has 4 pitches; so why’s he a reliever not a starter ( I can guess)? How did he get those 90 Ks in 63 innings?
I’d imagine that he doesn’t have the stamina to go 6-7 innings would be the reason that he’s in the relief role. The strikeouts came from all of his stuff. He mixes things up well, though he does lean more FB/SL than a true 4-pitch mix. That’s going to happen though when you’re able to dominate like he did. You simply aren’t throwing enough pitches to truly mix in everything as often as someone who is facing a few more batters.
citizen54: Where do you think the Reds’s farm system ranks in comparison to that of other teams? I would think with Tyler Stephenson as your no 10, the system isn’t too shabby.
I will say this much: I am probably going to be the low man on the totem pole when it comes to ranking Stephenson. I don’t think that my opinion on him is any different than anyone else, just that I’m higher on a few other guys than the consensus probably is. I think the Reds system is probably in that 8-12 range. They’ve got a few Top 100 guys and there’s some good depth too.
WVRon: If you can take off your analyst hat for a minute, is there a guy or two in the system that you hope makes it for personal reasons? For me, it’s Reydel Medina.
That’s a good one. For me it would be Mason Felt. After all that he’s been through, it would be really great to see him make it.
Norwood Nate: Going back to 2010 the Reds have had some pretty high picks every year (1st 2 rounds) not pan out (yet). Rahier, Gelalich, Franklin, Howard, Rosa, and LaMarre have all had significant adjustment issues, or have simply been busts. That’s 6 out of 14 picks. Is this a concerning pattern? A scouting issue? Or is this simply the luck of the draft?
I think it’s just a bit of luck and some risk taking. There’s always risk in the draft. It’s certainly not a sure thing. I don’t think it’s a scouting issue, because they’ve been successful before and after the second round. While it seems there may be something going on, it’s probably simply a random thing that just appears as a pattern.
RedsKoolAidDrinker: Without doing the notes as you did with the Top 25, can you give us #26 through whatever? 25-35 would be awesome.
I only ranked to 30, but it went Strahan, Kahaloa, Arias (the CF), Luis Gonzalez and Franklin. Others in that same range of conversation: Paulson, Mardirosian, Mejias-Brean, Elizalde, O’Grady, Daal, Lopez and Trahan.
Greg: Doug what kept Blake Trahan off your list?
For me he simply looks too much like a utility guy at this point. He’s certainly in the conversation in the 25-40 range though.
GCoch: Doug, the Reds have invested a lot of time and money into both Juan Duran, and Yorman Rodriguez. I believe both are at the end of the line as far as minor league free agent eligibility, yet neither seems MLB ready. Do you see the Reds giving up on them both or will they both make the 25-man roster this year?
As far as I can tell by the rules, Rodriguez is out of options and has to stick to the 25-man roster in 2016. I think he’s ready to contribute, but maybe not in an everyday role just yet. But, he’s always been one of those guys that tends to struggle at first, then make the adjustment. Duran should still have one option left and he needs it a lot more. His bat and defense are both nowhere near ready for the big leagues right now. I could see them deciding to try and pass Duran through waivers after next season unless he makes big improvements somewhere in his game in 2016.
The Duke: 1) Outside of Santillan, who made the top 25, in what order do you like the following rookie league pitchers: Ian Kahaloa, Andrew Jordan, Alexis Diaz, Isaac Anesty, Connor Bennett. 2) How far off was Sebastian Elizalde? I see him as a good future 4th OF/Chris Heisey type that might surprise if he is ever given a chance to start for a stretch. 3) What do you think the odds are of Zach Weiss making the Reds bullpen out of spring training? I think it happens.
- Kahaloa, Diaz, Jordan, Anesty.
- Not too far off. You could include him in that 21-25 range and I wouldn’t take an issue with it. I think he’s probably more of a platoon type, and at a corner, but there’s nothing wrong with that.
- 20%. It wouldn’t surprise me if he makes the team by any stretch, but I think they will send him to Louisville.
Billy: Of your top 25, who do you see losing their rookie eligibility this upcoming season? The Reds have the #2 pick in the draft. Without knowing the player, how they will perform, etc., where would you expect that pick to be ranked relative to this group of 25? (Or to put it a bit differently… You’d be disappointed if that pick shows up lower than where on this list?)
Robert Stephenson, Jesse Winker, Yorman Rodriguez, John Lamb (who literally needs to record one out), Jon Moscot, Zack Weiss. If the player taken #2 overall in the draft isn’t one of the two best prospects in the system, it’s either a very bad thing, or a very good thing.
Cam: 1. What’s the updated outlook on Kyle Waldrop/ how confident do you feel in him making adjustments with the approach? 2. After his rookie debut, is the concern level on Antonio Santillan’s delivery still the same or is there more or less confidence that the issues can be worked out? 3. When you finished the rankings, which player surprised you the most by where they ended up?
- I think he can improve on what he did in 2015, that’s for sure. But how much, I’m not too sure. I don’t think he’s an every day guy without big improvements and I’m not sure they are coming. If he’s a platoon guy though, that will work.
- It was cleaned up some, but there’s still work to do.
- Keury Mella. When I started the rankings I had the idea that he was in that 6-8 range, but he wound up falling when I really began comparing him to the other guys.
Donny: During the minor league season i noticed Shedric Long was playing second base. Did the Reds put him a second base because of his bat and didn’t want to wait for him to develop as a catcher ? In The Arizona rookie league, how does Andrew Jordan stack up to Santillan and Kahaloa as far as pure stuff ? Over the last couple of years the Reds have moved a player or two from rookie Arizona to Dayton. Do you see that trend continue for the 2016 season and who ?
I don’t think it was really either of the two things with Long. I think they just felt he was a better fit at second base. That his bat played so well in extended spring and then in Dayton was just icing on the cake. He’s a little behind Kahaloa and quite a bit behind Santillan, who has one of the better 1-2 combo’s in the system when looking simply at raw stuff. I don’t think we see it much this upcoming year unless there are injuries that open up a spot (like we saw this year that led to Gonzalez making the jump, and then there was the Rahier suspension that opened up the spot for LaValley). The Mustangs team was pretty strong with talent and some guys will look to return to Dayton from the 2015 squad.
swayback8: I’m interested in Blake Trahan. MLB.com has him ranked 8th in their top 30 prospects list for the Reds. What is it that they’re seeing in him that you do not see?
I’m honestly baffled by that ranking. They’ve got him ranked ahead of two guys the Reds decided were both better (drafted higher and paid more money), as well as Cody Reed. You try to make sense of that one. Looking at the scouting report, they seem to buy into his defense being quite a bit better than the reports I’ve gotten on it (and ones that I’ve read other places too). As I said above, I think he profiles a lot more like a utility guy than an every day guy.
Greg: Doug have you heard anything promising about the Cristian Olivo the Reds big intl signing from July 2nd
He’s got tools to work and I’m a fan of the bat speed he’s showing. He’s already a pretty big guy, so how much more he grows will be worth keeping an eye on as much more size will likely push him to a corner outfield spot.
Rick in Boise: 1) Who is/are your nephews’ favorite Reds minor leaguer? I’m thinking that while you give a player specific ranks, some have a wider range of potential (ceiling & floor) so… 2) Who has the highest ceiling relative to their current rank? (who has the potential of really blowing up??) 3) Who has the widest spread between potential ceiling and floor? (Who is the hardest to predict?)
- One just turned 2-years-old and the other just turned 6-months, so they don’t really have favorites yet.
- Jose Lopez, Antonio Santillan, Aristides Aquino, Jose Siri, Junior Arias
- It’s pretty similar to the same list above. Santillan, Aquino, Siri – those guys all could fail to make it out of A-ball.