Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects: OF Juan Duran

For all 2016 Prospect Ranking Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out one a day over the offseason).

After getting six at-bats in spring training with the big league club, that included a home run and three RBI, Juan Duran would miss the first half of the season and some of the second half. He would spend 1o days rehabbing with the Arizona League Reds to end the month of June, crushing the youngsters in the league, hitting .391/.464/.739 with four extra-base hits in seven games.

When July rolled around his short rehab stint ended and he would join the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos. In his first two games, Duran didn’t miss a beat, going 3-6 with a double, walk, two runs and an RBI. Things would slow down the rest of that first week, going just 3-16 with a double and seven strikeouts. The next week saw his slump continue as he had hits in just two games of the six that he played. All three of his hits on the week went for extra-bases, but he hit just .150 in 20 at-bats. The tall right hander turned things around in the third week of the month, racking up hits in five of the six games, going 8-24 (.333) with three doubles and a home run. Things would carry forward for the rest of the month, going hitless in just two of the final nine games as he smacked six more doubles and hit .333 in 36 at-bats. For July he would hit .293/.336/.475, showing off plenty of power with 13 doubles, a triple and a home run. He did strike out 37 times with just seven walks in 110 plate appearances though.

August picked up right where July left off. Duran went 3-5 with two doubles and he drove in four runs. That would put an end to his hot streak though as he would go 2-17 the rest of the week (.118). That slump carried over into the following week with a pair of 0-4’s to start things off, but he would rebound by going 5-16 (.313) with two homers the rest of the second week. Things went south once again in the third week as the outfielder managed just three hits in 18 at-bats (.167), though two of the hits went for extra-bases. After going 1-12 to start the fourth week of August, Duran finished things out strong by going 5-13 with a home run and driving in six runs. The final eight games of the season were solid as he would go 8-33 (.258) with two walks, a triple and a home run. He finished out the final 31 games of the season hitting just .225/.250/.408 with five walks and 51 strikeouts in 128 plate appearances.

For Juan Duran, the story remained mostly the same as it’s been for a while now. He’s struggled to make contact, striking out in 37% of his plate appearances in 2015, but when he does make contact he makes sure it counts. He was more of a doubles machine in 2015 than a home run guy, but he racked up 25 extra-base hits in just over 200 at-bats.

Scouting Report

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Hitting | Duran is never going to hit for average. His strikezone is simply too large and he struggles to make contact within it. He hits the ball hard, and can do so to all fields, but there’s just too many holes for him to ever carry even a decent average.

Power | This is where he shines, with 80 raw power. He’s got mammoth home run power when he runs into a baseball. It’s the best raw power in the system, by far.

Running | Duran doesn’t get out of the box quickly, but once he gets going in a straight line he can really move. He’s put up above-average times to first base from home, but when he’s got to round the bases, or even in the field when he has to change directions, his lack of coordination slows him down some.

Arm | Something that isn’t talked about much with Duran, but he’s got a plus throwing arm. It’s not always the most accurate arm, but it’s plenty strong.

Defense | Easily his worst tool. While his defense has improved over the past few years, there’s no way that he could be placed in the field in the Majors right now. He struggles with the routine play far too often in the outfield and still has problems catching balls while on the run.

If he were in the American League, the write up would probably be a little bit better. You can dream on his power, but that’s about the only thing useful in his game right now with everything else being very far from it. He’s got a big arm in the field, but his defense is so bad that it goes to waste. He’s got straight line speed, but loses some of it when he’s not moving in a straight line on the bases or in the field. He strikes out entirely too frequently to hit for any sort of average. If he can take steps forward in making contact and in the field, there’s a small chance he could grind out some sort of big league career, but the 2016 season will be the last one in which he has options available to him and that’s going to work against him in a big way.

Spray Chart

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