Reds Top 25 Prospects Update: 1-5

All week long I’m going to unveil the Cincinnati Reds midseason update of the Top 25 prospects. Every day will have five new additions to the list as we work through things until Friday’s completion. Let’s jump right on into things.

1. Cody Reed | LHP | Previous: #5

The first two starts of the big league career for Cody Reed haven’t exactly gone as smooth as he’d like, but that doesn’t change what he’s done in the first half of this season. The left hander jumped to Triple-A to begin 2016 and performed well, striking out 63 batters in 64.2 innings with just 17 walks. He’s shown the same kind of stuff that he had last year, but taken it to better hitters and gotten quality results. Stock: Up

2. Jesse Winker | OF | Previous: #2

The 2016 season hasn’t been the greatest one for Jesse Winker. He’s currently on the disabled list with a wrist injury for Triple-A Louisville. He’s hitting .286 and his on-base percentage is sitting at .381. The lefty has walked one more time than he’s struck out and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his entire career. The one thing that’s been a struggle this season has been hitting for power. Winker is slugging just .367 – but he’s still arguably the best hitter in the system and certainly the one most ready to step into the big leagues. Stock: Slightly down

3. Nick Senzel | 3B | Previous: College

The Cincinnati Reds drafted Nick Senzel 2nd overall in the 2016 draft, so he’s got no professional experience in the past and very little professional playing time since being drafted less than three weeks ago. He’s already one of the more advanced bats in the system and should move quickly through the minors. He doesn’t seem to have a weakness in his game and stands out in several areas.

4. Robert Stephenson | RHP | Previous: #1

It’s been both a good and tough season for Robert Stephenson. He’s reached the big leagues, making two starts for the Cincinnati Reds this season and holding his own. Most of his season has been spent in Triple-A where he’s posted a 3.93 ERA. He’s struggled to consistently find the strikezone, walking 40 batters with 60 strikeouts. That’s a rate that must improve if he’s going to have success at the next level. Stock: Down

5. Amir Garrett | LHP | Previous: #4

Left hander Amir Garrett jumped out to a great start in 2016, dominating in Double-A over his first five starts of the season, walking just six batters with 32 strikeouts in 29.2 innings while posting a 1.52 ERA. Things have slowed down some since then, particularly with his control as he’s walked 28 batters in the 53.0 innings since then while striking out 50. He was just promoted to Triple-A last week, where he’s made one start so far. Stock: Up

*disclaimer* Despite Amir Garrett dropping from #4 to #5 on the list, his stock is up. I believe he’s a better prospect today than he was coming into the season, and on an overall prospect list in the minor leagues he would rank higher than he did coming into the season. He just hasn’t moved up in the Reds rankings despite that as Cody Reed jumped ahead of him and the addition of Nick Senzel pushed him down a spot.

Scouting Reports

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1. Cody Reed | The biggest weakness for Cody Reed right now is that while he can usually find the strikezone, he doesn’t find the spot that he wants nearly as often. His biggest strength is that he’s got swing-and-miss stuff and generally throws strikes. His slider is a plus pitch and his fastball has above-average velocity where it sits and plus velocity at the top of it’s range.

2. Jesse Winker | The biggest weakness, at least this season, has been the lack of power hitter. If he hadn’t shown power in the past, this would be a bigger concern overall. Still, the lack of power in the first half is still concerning on some level. Despite the lack of power output, he’s still shown himself to be the most advanced bat in the system. Triple-A pitchers haven’t figured out a way to get him out, even if they have limited his power output.

3. Nick Senzel | The biggest weakness for Nick Senzel right now would probably be his current home run power. He’s more geared towards line drives than generating loft with his swing right now. The power is likely to come as he continues to mature. His advanced plate approach and pitch recognition skills should allow him to hit for a high average and get on-base at a high rate.

4. Robert Stephenson | The biggest weakness for Robert Stephenson is his inability to consistently find the strikezone. He’s got the best pure stuff of any starter in the entire system, but isn’t able to use it at times as he struggles with finding the zone. His fastball velocity is up a little bit from last year, and his curveball and splitter still both show up as plus pitches at times. He’s still got the potential to be a true #1 pitcher, but without improvements in his ability to throw strikes whether or not he can even remain a starter at all is in question.

5. Amir Garrett | Similar to Robert Stephenson, Amir Garrett’s control can be an issue at times. His walk rate on the season looks ok-ish, but it’s trending in the wrong direction this season and was already something he needed to improve on coming into the season. He really struggled to repeat his mechanics in his first Triple-A start, much worse than I’ve ever seen from him. On the flip side, he’s been able to jump from A-ball to Double-A and continue to really miss bats. His fastball velocity is above-average for a lefty but he doesn’t really reach back for plus velocity too often. He’s shown improvements with his change up, but it’s still an offering that will need to improve to work at the big league level as his arm still slows down when throwing the pitch some. His slider is among the best in the system and will already play at the big league level when thrown near the strikezone.

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