Amir Garrett ranks as the lone Cincinnati Reds prospect in the Baseball Prospectus Midseason Top 50 update. The list does come with some caveats though: No one in the Major Leagues is eligible for the list even if they still have prospect eligibility and no 2016 draft picks are eligible. That’s wiped out several prospects from ranking on the list who otherwise would. That likely includes the Reds Cody Reed and Nick Senzel.
Amir Garrett finds himself as the #37 overall prospect on the list. Here is what they have to say for him:
Why he’ll succeed: If the big fastball, plus slider, and in-progress change combine with Garrett’s athleticism, the mix of skills could push him toward the top of the rotation.
Why he might fail: The change might never get to “useful”, in which case he becomes a two-pitch left with a nasty slider, which sounds a lot like a reliever.
That sounds much like the same scouting reports we’ve heard on Garrett for a while now. It’s generally been all about the change up development. The pitch has taken a step forward this year, and he’s more confident in throwing the pitch today than he has been in the past, but it’s still a pitch that needs plenty of work.
When it comes to the performance for the Reds left hander, he’s been quite dominant at times in 2016. He began the year in Double-A Pensacola and posted a 1.75 ERA in 13 games and 77.0 innings. His April was outstanding, though he slowed down some after that – particularly when it came to his walk rate (4.3% walk rate in April – 11.8% since).
Still, despite allowing more walks, he’s continued to keep opponents off the board. He’s made three starts in Triple-A for the Louisville Bats. His ERA in those three starts in 2.89 and he’s got 10 walks and 12 strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched.
In total the big lefty has a 1.98 ERA this year in 95.2 innings. He’s allowed just 59 hits and has 38 walks to go with 90 strikeouts. Much like the 2015 season, Garrett has been one of the best, if not the best performing starter in the organization.