Jay Bruce is on the trading block and it seems that talks have just picked up according to Jerry Crasnick:
The #Reds have picked up the pace on Jay Bruce trade discussions. They’re talking to at least 4 clubs. Seeking a top prospect in return.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 26, 2016
That last sentence is key. Seeking a top prospect in return. Read it. Believe it. Jay Bruce currently has the 28th best OPS in baseball among the 161 qualified hitters. He’s one of the better power hitters in baseball this season (and has been in the past as well, with the exception being the 2014 and 2015 seasons). He also has a friendly team option for the 2017 season as long as he continues to perform at somewhere near the same pace he’s been at this season. The value should be there for a contending team that needs a bat to help push them over the top, and the Reds seem to believe that’s worth a very good prospect.
The question is, do other teams believe that? If they do, then great. But if they don’t, what do the Reds do? They shouldn’t just trade him for the best offer if the best offer isn’t any good. Bruce isn’t a free agent unless the team wants him to be. If the offer isn’t there, then keeping him and trying again in the offseason, or even next June or July could be an option for the organization. There’s some risk involved given that last July 30th we saw Bruce with an .824 OPS and by the end of the season he was nearly 100 points lower than that after a major slump over the final eight weeks of the season.
There’s also been talk, at least among some fans, that the team should consider extending Jay Bruce. He’s locked in through 2017 as things sit now. He’s going to be 30 next year, meaning he’s only got one crack at free agency. He’s not going to take a 3-year deal, or at least it’s very unlikely he will. So you’re looking at signing a guy into his mid 30’s who has had a knee problem and is already a corner player. That usually doesn’t work out well. It would also put the Reds in the same position that they are in now with Brandon Phillips, giving a player 10-and-5 rights and letting the player dictate everything if the organization decides it’s time to move on.
The other possibility is to keep Bruce if the offer for trade isn’t very strong, and to decline the option for 2017 and let Bruce become a free agent. That will cost the team $1M for the buyout, but they can also make a qualifying offer (which he’d almost assuredly decline – testing the free agent waters after his best season, while hitting free agency at 30) and picking up the additional draft pick. It’s very, very likely that the Reds will have another high end draft pick next year, and assuming the June draft rules stay roughly the same as they are now (the CBA is up after the season, so there could be some changes), then the organization could utilize their money well in the 2017 draft and possibly add a prospect or two that would be a bit further away than what was offered this week, but provide more value in the long run. Of course, that comes with it’s own set of issues. The first one would be the money involved, both in the buyout to Bruce and in the money spent signing the players. Players that are just drafted are also going to be both further away and less likely to be something than players who are closer to the Majors (at least in most cases).
At the end of the day, the Cincinnati Reds have options with Jay Bruce and those options give them leverage. If a team isn’t going to ante up what they are asking for, then they can absolutely turn away and look at options B, C and D.