For Robert Stephenson the 2016 season probably couldn’t have started out better from a personal standpoint. The right hander’s first start of the year came at the big league level on April 7th against the Philadelphia Phillies. He picked up the win with a solid outing, allowing three earned runs in 5.0 innings. The next start came in Louisville where he allowed just one run in 6.0 innings and had seven strikeouts. The 23-year-old returned to Cincinnati for another start on April 19th against the Rockies where he allowed a run in 7.0 innings and picked up another victory. He would return to Louisville for a while after that, finishing up the month of April with 12.0 innings, allowing just two runs with six walks and 13 strikeouts.
May was a bit of a struggle for Robert Stephenson. In the first three starts of the month he walked as many batters as he struck out, 12, in 17.1 innings. In the final two starts of the month the walk rate dropped some, handing out just five in 14.0 innings, but he had just eight strikeouts in that span as well. After April’s 2.10 ERA and a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio things went south in May. The ERA jumped up to 4.31 in 31.1 innings with 17 walks and 20 strikeouts.
June, much like May, was a struggle. In the first four starts of the season he had a 5.31 ERA with more walks, 13, than strikeouts, 12, in 20.1 innings pitched. The month would end on a solid note as he picked up the win against Rochester, striking out eight batters with three walks in 6.0 innings. That last start pushed his strikeout-to-walk ratio for the month to 20-to-16 and dropped his ERA to 5.13. It wasn’t a strong month overall and his control was an issue.
After a nice start to end June Robert Stephenson carried that into July with two walks and seven strikeouts on the 1st of July. The next two starts were a mixed bag. The righty kept runs low, giving up just four runs in 12.1 innings and he had 12 strikeouts, but he also walked nine batters in that span. On the 23rd he had allowed three runs in 6.0 innings without a walk and he had seven strikeouts. He couldn’t carry that control forward the next time out as he walked six batters in 3.2 innings and allowed seven runs. Prior to that final start, July had gone well (2.96 ERA, 11 walks, 26 strikeouts in 24.1 innings) – but the last start really crushed the rest of the month as his ERA jumped to 4.82 with 17 walks and 30 strikeouts in 28.0 innings pitched.
The first three starts of August were a mixed-bag. Each start lasted 6.0 innings with the first and third each coming with just two earned runs allowed. In those two starts he combined for just two walks and 11 strikeouts. The middle start was rough as he allowed six runs on 10 hits and three walks with just two strikeouts in 6.0 innings. The fourth start of the month was a real clunker as he allowed six runs in just 2.0 innings with four walks. He rebounded well in the final two starts, combining for just three runs in 13.0 innings. He did walk six batters but also added in 14 strikeouts. The two rough outings really shaped the entire month as they blew his ERA up to 5.18 and had 14 walks with 30 strikeouts.
After two big league starts in April he was recalled by the Reds in September. His first start back was a good one as he fanned nine batters with just one walk in 5.1 innings where he allowed two runs. He had some struggles the rest of the way, allowing 19 runs in 19.2 innings with 14 walks and 18 strikeouts to go along with five home runs allowed over the final five starts.
Consistency was an issue in 2016 for Robert Stephenson. He couldn’t find the strikezone often enough and it kept him from really dominating for any period of time during the season. He would flash those outings, but often followed them up with ones where he would really struggle. It got to the point where his manager in Louisville grew tired of the inconsistencies and called him out publicly for not making the adjustments asked of him. The upside is still very high for the right hander, but the longer he struggles to throw strikes the more you begin to hear people talk about throwing him into the bullpen.
| Level | IP | H | ERA | HR | BB | K |
| Lou | 136.2 | 115 | 4.41 | 17 | 71 | 120 |
| Cin | 37.0 | 41 | 6.08 | 9 | 19 | 31 |
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Robert Stephenson Scouting Report
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Fastball | While it’s not at the velocity that it used to be, often sitting in the upper 90’s, he’s given up some velocity to improve control (to mixed results) but also picked up some life on the pitch. It now generally works 92-95 MPH and still touches the upper 90’s at times. He averaged 94 MPH with the pitch in his eight big league starts this year.
Splitter | A few years ago Stephenson scrapped his change up for a splitter and the difference was drastic. Almost immediately the pitch began to show itself as an above-average offering and it’s improved since. It’s a plus offering that works in the mid-80’s that has hard, late sinking action to it.
Curveball | It’s a power curveball that works in the low 80’s that’s worked it’s way from his second to third offering over the past few seasons. It’s an above-average offering when it’s on, though it can still be inconsistent at times.
When it comes to Robert Stephenson it’s all about his ability to throw strikes. When he’s able to do that, he’s got three above-average to plus offerings to work with and can pitch very well regardless of the level that he’s at. Unfortunately he’s too often unable to do that and falls behind hitters, which makes his pitch selection more predictable and overall more hittable. There have been times in the past few seasons where he’s gone on runs where he threw strikes for long periods of time, only to lose it and struggle with it again. Being able to find that again, and maintain it, is the key for the future for Stephenson. With it he projects near the top of a rotation. Without it he may wind up in the bullpen where the control problems may be limited somewhat. There are plenty of other quality arms breathing down his neck at this point for a rotation spot, though, so he’s going to need to start showing that improvement and soon or he may find himself on the outside looking in on a rotation spot in Cincinnati.
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