The Cincinnati Reds picked up Richie Shaffer on Friday afternoon and with Christmas coming up over the weekend, we didn’t dive too deep into how he could help the team.
As noted on Friday, he’s got experience playing first base, third base, left field and right field. While that’s not the sexiest defensive profile, he’s able to play multiple positions. For a bench player, that alone does add some value. Of course, it’s the offensive help that we all tend to talk about.
He had some real struggles offensively in 2016, but the year prior to that he performed quite well. In 2015 he split the year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting an .897 OPS with 54 extra-base hits in 108 games. His time in Triple-A was even better, where he hit .270/.355/.582 for Durham. Unfortunately, he returned there in 2016 and saw his OPS drop .242 points.
If Richie Shaffer is not going to return to where he was in 2015, then he’s going back to Triple-A. He has one option remaining, so he could head to Louisville if he’s not ready to perform. However, if he can return to that 2015 form where he showed off big time power and that led to him hitting enough despite high strikeout totals, where can he fit in for the Reds?
He would certainly help fill out the bench with something that they’ve been missing since the days of Xavier Paul – a legit power option as a pinch hitter. In 2016 he performed better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. That isn’t something that’s been the case throughout his career though, performing better against like handed pitchers in past seasons. In the Major Leagues, in very small sample sizes, he’s hit right handers quite well (.884 OPS in 62 plate appearances – but with 21 strikeouts) and really struggled against lefties (.577 OPS in 80 plate appearances – with 29 strikeouts).
Power has been one of the calling cards for Richie Shaffer since he was drafted. Using the MLBFarm.com spray charts to look at his career (dating back to 2013), he’s been overwhelmingly a pull-power hitter.
As you can see above, all but six of his home runs have gone to his pull side. His doubles chart is also heavy to his pull side, but he does spread that around a little bit more. Great American Ballpark boosts power, particularly to right field, but it also helps out in left. While the ballpark may help his power some, it may effect his average. The small outfield gaps tend to take away a few hits along the way.
Richie Shaffer puts the ball in the air often. I his career he’s had a groundball rate of just 36%. That’s both good and bad. Fly balls go for outs more often than ground balls. On the flip side of that, fly balls go for extra-base hits far more frequently, too. There’s a give-and-take. In Great American Ballpark, when fly balls work, they can really work. But, as we’ve seen at times with Jay Bruce, another big fly ball hitter, when they don’t go over the fence, things can get ugly, quickly.
While the position flexibility could be useful in certain situations, if Richie Shaffer is going to really help the Cincinnati Reds moving forward, it’s very likely going to be from power production. That could play well in Great American Ballpark and he could pepper the left field seats. He’s likely going to need to cut down on his strikeout total though, and there’s some concerns over how he declined in 2016 despite repeating Triple-A.
With an option remaining, the Reds can take their time if they want to and don’t have to force him into a role if he’s not quite ready. There’s some intriguing things going on here, and there are some similarities to Adam Duvall. Bigger strikeout rates, some good pop to work with, and a corner player. Duvall had fewer strikeouts in the minors, but also had a significantly lower walk rate and didn’t really have that down year that Shaffer had in 2016. There are a lot of potential outcomes, but having a Duvall like season wouldn’t be completely outlandish, though there’s plenty of risk that he could provide very little as well.