When Brandon Finnegan was drafted out of college there was a decent split among evaluators on whether or not he was a starter or a reliever. That continued after the draft when the Kansas City Royals used him as a starter in the minor leagues, but kept recalling him to the Major Leagues and using him as a reliever.
Once acquired by the Cincinnati Reds in the Johnny Cueto trade in 2015, the organization said they planned to use him as a starter. And they have. Brandon Finnegan made 35 starts for them at the big league level over the last two seasons. In 2016 he posted a 3.98 ERA in 172.0 innings for the club over 31 starts. That came with 84 walks and 145 strikeouts in that span. He was solid, but unspectacular over the course of the full season.
He was, however, a much different pitcher in the second half. In 13 starts after the All-Star break he posted a 2.93 ERA in 70.2 innings. That came along with 31 walks and 72 strikeouts. Let’s take a quick look at the splits between the 1st and 2nd half for the lefty:
| Split | ERA | IP | HR | BB% | K% | K/BB |
| 1st Half | 4.71 | 101.1 | 18 | 12.0% | 16.6% | 1.38 |
| 2nd Half | 2.93 | 70.2 | 11 | 10.6% | 24.6% | 2.32 |
The difference, almost across the board, is massive. In both the first half and second half his home run rate was a problem. The walk rate in the second half was also a tad higher than you’d like to see. It did however take a step in the correct direction.
It was those second half improvements that led to Fangraphs writer Eno Sarris to say this in his Ten Bold Predictions for 2017 article earlier today about Brandon Finnegan:
The Reds will find their ace in Brandon Finnegan
Here’s why Finnegan is worth swinging for the fences, though. His above-average velocity four-seamer (for a lefty) has good ride (+2/3 inch) that sets up everything else. His slider has always been his best pitch, and gets good results. And, after learning a new grip from Dan Straily, Finnegan’s changeup was the most improved change of the second half. That change helped his four-seamer gain a ton of whiffs, too, so Finnegan could find himself fiddling with that fastball mix and getting even more out of his stuff than he did when he finished the season white-hot and left the league in his wake.
When looking at just the second half of the season, his strikeout rate of 24.6% would have been the 15th best among qualified starting pitchers. That would fall between Jon Lester and John Lackey. It would rank ahead of David Price, Jake Arrieta and Cole Hamels. When we look at his strikeout%-walk% he takes a step backwards. The walk rate was high at 10.6%. That leaves his 14.0% rate ranking 36th. Pitchers like Jake Arrieta and Cole Hamels are just ahead of him between the 14-15% mark.
While it’s worth noting that Eno Sarris says the Reds will find their ace, I’m not so sure he’s referring to Finnegan as an actual ace. I’d venture to guess that he isn’t. There’s only 10-15 guys that most would say are truly “ace caliber” pitchers in baseball. Maybe less depending on who you ask.
The strikeout rate absolutely helped out in the second half. It went from below-average in the first half to well above-average in the second. If Brandon Finnegan is going to take that next step though, he’s going to have to cut the walk rate down. August was the only month in which he had a walk rate under 10.5%. August was the only month in which his strikeout%-walk% was better than 7.6%. His home run rate could also use some help as he’s given up a very high rate of homers.
Brandon Finnegan is still quite young. He won’t turn 24-years-old until the second week of the regular season. He’s younger than Robert Stephenson. He’s younger than Amir Garrett. He’s 1 day older than Cody Reed. To put it bluntly – he’s still developing into the pitcher he’s going to become. We saw glimpses last year. We saw improvements as the year went on. It’s very unlikely he’s a finished product at this point.
With all of that said, there’s still plenty of work to be done before he’s likely to pass up Anthony DeSclafani as the top pitcher on the Reds staff. It would be great if that were to happen. And it wouldn’t be a large surprise if it happened, either. But for now, there’s still several areas of needed improvement for Brandon Finnegan before he’s entering that conversation. Hopefully the 2017 season shows more steps forward, like we saw from the left hander in 2016.