Chris Okey was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds out of Clemson with their 2nd round pick, 43rd overall, last season. After a slow start in Billings he was moved up to Dayton where he played in 42 games for the Dragons. He hit .243/.323/.432, showing off plenty of power potential. After catching nearly every day since February, he seemed to wear down late in the year and he struggled in August.
His strikeout rate was on the high side, but his walk rate was solid and he hit for plenty of power, even with the slump in August. I ranked him as the #11 prospect in the Reds organization following the season and wrote this about his power in the scouting report:
This is where Chris Okey could shine. He’s got above-average power potential, with 20-25 home runs not being out of the question in a couple of years.
Between batting practice and games, when he hit the ball, he really hit the ball. It was easy to see that he had pop in his bat. I felt very comfortable in those observations.
This season, things haven’t gone nearly as well for Chris Okey. As I write this he is hitting .175/.252/.238 for the Advanced-A Daytona Tortugas. He’s hit just three doubles, a triple and one home run. While the Florida State League is well known to keep power down, that’s a different level of power outage for the catcher who has shown big pop in the past.
There are a few things we can see statistically that could be leading to the problem. First, his strikeout rate is up from last year. It’s only up 3% points, but it was already too high. He’s striking out 32% of the time he steps to the plate this season. Generally speaking, you want to see that rate below 25%, even for power hitters. Less contact means less opportunities to hit the ball hard, and for power.
The contact issues though, probably aren’t what’s been leading to the power outage. As noted, he’s only striking out slightly more often than he did last season when he showed plenty of pop. The big thing, at least statistically, is his batted ball profile. Last season with Dayton he hit a ground ball 33% of the time. That meant plenty of balls hit in the air, and we know that most extra-base hits come on non-ground balls. Maybe you’ve read about players working on increasing their launch angles to hit for more power (Yonder Alonso worked on it over the winter and has already nearly doubled his career high in a season for home runs in just 39 games played).
Hitting the ball in the air more doesn’t work for everyone. If you can’t hit the ball hard, then hitting it in the air won’t benefit you. But, Chris Okey is a guy that can hit the ball hard, so fly balls are generally a good recipe for success. This season, however, he’s not hitting the ball in the air. His ground ball rate is at 46.3%, up significantly from the previous year.
Another thing that jumps out when you look at the stats is that he’s hitting the ball to the opposite field significantly more. Let’s take a look at how his outfield spray chart compares over the last two seasons:
| To | 2017 | 2016 |
| LF | 8.5% | 18.9% |
| CF | 12.2% | 25.0% |
| RF | 24.4% | 15.2% |
As a right handed hitter his pull side would be to left field. He’s hitting the ball to left and center significantly less often than he was a year ago. He’s also going to right field significantly more often than he was last season.
The last thing is that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is down from .319 in 2016 to .259 in 2017. That will probably correct itself some as the season goes along, sneaking towards the .300 mark. When we couple the low BABIP, a small increase in his strikeout rate, a bunch of ground balls and a seemingly no-pull at all approach, it all adds up, at least statistically to possibly explain what’s been the cause for the big decline in offensive production for Chris Okey.