Nick Senzel is the Cincinnati Reds top prospect. He’s played third base every single day he’s been on the field since the Reds drafted him. That’s been 182 games at third base as he’s blown through the Minor Leagues. He’s hit a combined .315/.393/.514 in 797 plate appearances over the previous two seasons, reaching Double-A.
Eugenio Suarez is the Reds third baseman, and they’ve seemingly made that clear. He’s under contract for the next three seasons. In 2017 he had a breakout season on both sides of the ball. In the field he provided outstanding defense. At the plate he hit 25 doubles and 26 home runs while posting a .367 on-base percentage.
C. Trent Rosecrans wrote an article at The Athletic on Thursday afternoon about Nick Senzel and where he could play, since third base doesn’t seem to be open. While we’ve known for a while that Senzel was going to work on shortstop, among several positions, there hasn’t been much talk that suggested the Reds were going to really give it a look. Dick Williams, however, said this on Thursday about the Reds top prospect and the position:
“He’s expressed a desire to do it and it makes sense for us — we’ve always said you let people play themselves off the premium spots,” Williams said on Thursday. “There’s no reason to think he shouldn’t get some time there and show us what he can do.”
Now, there’s a lot of stuff in the article that’s worth checking out, so go read it all. But, let’s focus on Nick Senzel and shortstop. First, we need to address the position as it currently sits. Jose Peraza has the job right now. In 2016 just about everything went right for the then 22-year-old. He hit .324 and stole 21 bases in 72 games played. Last season just about everything went wrong for the then 23-year-old. He hit .259 with a .297 on-base percentage, and his power dropped off, too. He also only stole two more bases despite playing in twice as many games.
If Jose Peraza is going to be the 2016 version of Jose Peraza, and provide solid defense at shortstop over a full season, then the Reds may not have a shortstop problem in the long run. But, if Jose Peraza is going to be the 2017 version, then the Reds will have a problem. As I covered earlier this week in the State of the Farm: Shortstop article, the organization isn’t exactly thriving with shortstops that are close to the Major Leagues right now.
With all of that said, let’s start exploring what Nick Senzel and the shortstop position mean. First, we need to look backwards. In college Senzel played second base in his freshman and sophomore seasons. In his junior season he slid over to third base – but late in the year he did spend a handful of games at shortstop. On April 19th he began the game at third base, but regular shortstop Max Bartlett went down with an injury and Senzel slid over to shortstop. He would remain there for the next ten games before Bartlett returned.
At the time of the move, Nick Senzel was arguably the top prospect in the draft. Scouts were at every game, watching him play, evaluating his talent. Very few scouts thought, at the time, that he could handle shortstop at the Major League level. His manager at Tennessee, Dave Serrano, echoed similar thoughts to C. Trent Rosecrans earlier this week. With that said, while it’s the minority opinion, some thought that there was a chance it could work as long as he hit as expected. The trade off for some defense would be worth the boost in offense.
And that is likely what it is going to come down to. Nick Senzel is a very good athlete, so it’s not inconceivable that he could be a shortstop. When you look at his size, he’s not “too big” for shortstop. He’s listed at 6′ 1″ and 205 lbs. Jose Peraza, for example, is listed at 6′ 0″ and 196 lbs. Carlos Correa is 6′ 4″ and 215 lbs. Corey Seager is 6′ 4″ and 220 lbs. You get the point. But, he’s spent 10 games at shortstop since he left high school, and usually when that happens, there’s a reason for it.
Maybe, hopefully, everyone just missed the boat. If you think about the kind of hitter that Nick Senzel projects to be, a guy who could hit for a high average, get on base, show plenty of pop – at shortstop, that’s an All-Star every single year. Being able to add that kind of bat to the lineup would do wonders. And, of course, the Reds are going to add his bat to the lineup regardless, but being able to add it there, while keeping second base open for another quality hitter – be it Scooter Gennett, Shed Long, Alex Blandino, Dilson Herrera – would be huge.
But, it’s going to come down to the defense more so than the offense. Shortstop is arguably the most valuable position on the field outside of catcher. Defense matters there more than offense. There are limits on how much you can sacrifice on both sides at the position, but teams historically have been willing to give up a lot more offense at the position than defense at the position.
When we look at the crop of Major League shortstops in 2017, for the most part, it’s a well-rounded bunch. Most guys provided good value on the bases, and of course, as shortstops, overall provided strong defense. Some of them could really hit, too. But let’s focus on the defense. While they are all good fielders when compared to everyone, when we look at comparing them to just the rest of the shortstops, there’s going to be some good and some bad.
Heading to the Fangraphs leaderboards and looking at the most valuable shortstops in 2017 it’s a mixed bag in terms of how the best guys provided their value. As a group they mostly provided good value on the bases, and some of them could really hit. Only three of the 29 shortstops provided negative defensive value – but, that includes the positional adjustment, which is rather large for shortstops.
When we look at the group and compare them only to the other shortstops in Major League Baseball, that’s where we see just how the good, solid, and bad defenders stack up in terms of overall value. Inside of the Top 10 there were only three guys who were below-average defenders according to UZR/150 among shortstops. Carlos Correa, Elvis Andrus, and Xander Bogaerts. Correa was the worst among that group at -3.7, ranking 22nd overall. Bogaerts and Andrus ranked 18th and 21st.
Carlos Correa, at least compared to other shortstops, wasn’t exactly a strong defender. He was below-average, though not by a large amount. But he was still ranked as the third most valuable shortstop in baseball because he can absolutely rake. Elvis Andrus hit quite well in 2017 and like Correa, was able provide plenty of value – he was a 4.1 WAR player, which is roughly the value of an All-Star in most seasons. Bogaerts didn’t hit quite as well as the other two, but was still the 9th most valuable shortstop and provided 3.2 WAR despite being a slightly below-average defender at shortstop.
So, how much value can a shortstop give up on defense and still be a quality player if they hit well? Quite a bit. You probably can’t be the worst defender among the group, but you can be below-average. Take Jean Segura for example, he ranked as the 26th worst defender at shortstop in 2017 at -5.5 UZR/150. Despite that he was worth 2.9 WAR (2.0 is considered to be league average for a starter). That’s a fairly valuable player and would have been the 4th most valuable position player for the Reds last season – falling between Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett. Segura was valuable, though, because he can hit a little bit. He posted a .300/.349/.427 line.
Nick Senzel projects to be a better hitter than Jean Segura was in 2017. He also projects to provide more baserunning value, at least compared to what Segura provided last season. If there’s a chance that Senzel could be the level of defender that Segura was at shortstop, according to UZR/150 – which was among the worst in the league, but not the worst, then this whole Nick Senzel to shortstop thing could possibly work.
The one concern, though, is that even if that is the level of defense that he plays, is it something that the Cincinnati Reds would be willing to “live with” given their young pitching staff? Those extra outs made by a stronger defender could be of value beyond just the specific value to your shortstop. It would mean fewer pitches, and fewer stressful pitches made by your pitching staff.
There’s a whole lot that goes into this kind of decision. It’s not just about Nick Senzel. It’s about him, and it’s about Jose Peraza. And it’s about Scooter Gennett, and Shed Long, and Dilson Herrera, and Alex Blandino. It’s also about Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, Luis Castillo, Brandon Finnegan, Sal Romano, Robert Stephenson, Amir Garrett, Tyler Mahle, and the guys that could pitch out of the bullpen. As I noted the other day, I think that how the Reds use Nick Senzel this spring is the biggest story involving one player in Goodyear.
If by some stroke of genius and circumstance it works out that he’s capable of playing shortstop, it could be a franchise altering kind of move. It may be a long shot kind of hope, but at least we are going to get to see it in action. That beats some past plans that the organization talked about trying but never put into action on the field.