The guys over at MLB Trade Rumors has released their estimates for the arbitration numbers for 2019. The Cincinnati Reds have seven players that are due for arbitration raises.
Scooter Gennett is due the most money. That’s unsurprising, he’s put together back-to-back All-Star caliber seasons since being acquired on waivers from Milwaukee. He made $5.7M in 2018. According to MLB Trade Rumors, he’s going to nearly double that and get $10.7M in 2019.
Billy Hamilton, who made $4.6M in 2018, is due a moderate raise, too. He’s projected to be paid $5.9M in 2019. Unlike Gennett, Hamilton hasn’t exactly torn it up on the field. He’s been the starting center fielder since 2014, but has yet to really have a season where he’s been any sort of threat offensively.
Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, and Curt Casali are also all due raises. The biggest is to Jose Peraza, who will be going from league minimum to a projected $3.6M. In total, those players are projected to get raises of nearly $8M.
For the Cincinnati Reds, this is where things get interesting. They’ve said that payroll will be at an “all-time high” for 2019. That, of course, doesn’t tell us much. Just that it’s going to be more than $115-118M, depending on which figure you believe was the previous high. The payroll in 2018 was $101M. If the team is going to use the free agent market, and pay market prices for production, then they are going to need to spend a whole lot more than $120M to be competitive.
That means that the Reds may need to be more creative. Perhaps it means using prospects to acquire players in trade to improve the team, and make those acquisitions of players be those who aren’t yet making big dollars. That will be expensive in terms of prospects, though.
Another option could be to trade the two guys getting the most money in arbitration. While Scooter Gennett has been a very good player for the Cincinnati Reds, he’s probably close to replaceable, today. Nick Senzel is one of the best prospects on the planet. He also happens to be very capable of playing second base. And for the next three years he’ll make about $1.7M combined because baseball is set up to pay young players nothing, and pay old players with declining skills a boatload. The trade market hasn’t seemed to be strong for Gennett if you’re to believe the rumors. Still, there’s got to be some value for a middle infielder who can OPS .870, even if there are some other flaws in his game.
And then there’s Billy Hamilton. The Reds haven’t shown much confidence in anyone else being able to play center field every day. If they were to trade Hamilton, and I do believe there’d be some market for him, they’d have to likely find someone outside of the organization to play center in 2019. And maybe 2020 depending on the development of guys like Taylor Trammell, Jose Siri, and TJ Friedl. There’s even a chance, that unlike Scooter Gennett, the Reds could non-tender Billy Hamilton and allow him to become a free agent.
While we don’t know exactly what the Reds are planning to spend on payroll in 2019, it doesn’t seem that anyone is thinking it’s going to be a lot more than $120M. That’s not exactly leaving a ton of money to spend on improving the club versus 2018. But if the team replaces Gennett with Senzel, that saves $10M. And if they move on from Hamilton, it’s another $6M. Whether that means you just go out and get a few free agent starting pitchers. Or whether it’s a combination of spending in free agency and trading for someone who is making money, it gives the Reds many more options for improve for 2019 where they would theoretically have $35-40M to work with for 2019 instead of just $15-20M.