On Thursday afternoon at Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen held his prospect-oriented chat. There was a rather interesting question from a reader:
Connor Joe makes the leap to become a Max Muncy type hitter, yes or no?
: Not that crazy but I do think he’s a good sleeper.
Max Muncy plays for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2018 he played in his first full season at the Major League level and was 27-years-old. He was hardly young, and didn’t exactly seem like a guy who would break out. Muncy didn’t even get a single plate appearance in the Major Leagues in 2017. He then made the Dodgers squad in mid-April and never looked back. The left-handed hitter went out and hit .263/.391/.582 with 35 home runs in 137 games played.
Connor Joe doesn’t exactly have the power that Max Muncy showed in 2018. But neither did Max Muncy prior to 2018. Muncy had a career slugging percentage of .438 in his Minor League career. And outside of his 93 games in the California League, his single season high in home runs was 12, which he had in 2017 as a 26-year-old in 109 Triple-A games.
What gets interesting here is that both Max Muncy and Connor Joe have been in the Los Angeles Dodgers system in the last two seasons. Both played with their Triple-A affiliate, too. That gives us a good numbers comparison to look at.
Now, there need to be a few things pointed out here. Max Muncy’s season was in 2017, while Connor Joe’s was in 2018. Muncy also had just over twice as many plate appearances. Joe began his season in 2018 in Double-A, hitting .304/.425/.554 in 57 games played. Muncy was 26 at the time of his season, while Joe was 25 for his.
With that out of the way, the two seasons were pretty similar. Connor Joe walked a lot, but not as much as Max Muncy did. He also made a lot more contact. He hit for a bit more power, too. Not shown in these numbers is the fact that Joe, like Muncy, hadn’t shown much power earlier in his career. He’s slugged just .398 in his Minor League career and had never hit more than 5 home runs in a single season prior to last years 17.
There are certainly some interesting similarities between the two guys. Both had late-minors career break-outs. Both had above-average walk rates. They are both similarly sized, too. Both are listed at 6′ 0″ and within 5 lbs of each other. Connor Joe is a right-handed hitter, while Max Muncy is a left-handed hitter.
Fangraphs did not rate Connor Joe in their Reds Top 32 prospects. They did, however, note him in the “Huge Power, Tough Defensive Profile” section. Here’s what they wrote about him in their Rule 5 Draft write up:
The Reds will be Joe’s fourth team in two years as he has been shuttled around from Pittsburgh (which drafted him) to Atlanta (for Sean Rodriguez) to the Dodgers (for cash) during that time. Now 26, Joe spent 2018 split between Double and Triple-A. He’s a swing changer who began lifting the ball more once he joined Los Angeles. Joe is limited on defense to first and third base, and he’s not very good at third. He has seen a little bit of time in the outfield corners and realistically projects as a four-corners bench bat who provides patience and newfound in-game pop.
Prior to the 2018 season Connor Joe wasn’t exactly a ground ball machine, but he wasn’t a fly ball guy, either. His ground ball rate through the 2017 season in the Minor Leagues was 46%. In 2018 with the Dodgers between Double-A and Triple-A that rate dropped to 38%. With that he began to show more power. Depending on where you look for your scouting information you will see Joe’s power listed as somewhere between average and slightly above-average. Let’s just call it 20-home run pop by splitting the middle-ish. In a full year of Great American Ballpark, perhaps that plays up some.
With that said, it’s tough to envision a scenario where Connor Joe gets a full season of playing time for the Cincinnati Reds. He’s mostly been a first baseman or third baseman. He’s not playing over Joey Votto or Eugenio Suarez. There’s also been talk that he could possibly play some corner outfield, too. It’s tough to see where he plays over anyone that currently looks to be in that spot.
With some position flexibility, Connor Joe could play a little bit of everywhere and rack up some plate appearances. Still, there won’t be THAT much playing time available for him to put up Max Muncy kind of numbers unless there are multiple injuries throughout the season. He simply is too far down the depth chart at too many positions.
That doesn’t mean that he’s not still rather intriguing. He is. But he’s far more likely to get 150 plate appearances in 2019 for the Cincinnati Reds than he is to really break out. It’s just going to be so tough to see how he could get the required playing time to make that happen.
On paper, Connor Joe sounds like a good bench player. He has a good approach at the plate. There’s some pop in his bat. He can play a little bit of everywhere on the corners, and even behind the plate in an absolute pinch. You never know how a guy will perform as a pinch hitter until they get into that role and do it. Some guys can carry over things in a limited role, while some guys struggle in it. Time will tell how it plays out. He’ll first have to make the roster out of spring training. But he so there’s more than a few things to like here.