Dan Syzmborski and Fangraphs have released the ZiPS projections for the Cincinnati Reds. They are actually pretty strong, projecting the Cincinnati Reds, as they stand today, as a sort-of playoff contender.
I’m actually surprised how well the Reds come out in the ZiPS projections – my gut was telling me low 80s, but the very rough ZiPS estimates puts them in mid-80s (that may change in full sim which takes into account depth).
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) February 1, 2019
Let’s start off with a few points to make. First, click the link above and check out the entire projection. Second, let’s note that this is a projection, not a prediction. This is not someone’s opinion. This is what an algorithm based on historical past data about players says is most likely to happen based on how these players, and ones similar to them in the past, have performed at similar ages.
That’s out of the way now. Let’s take a look at what the ZiPS projection system says about a few of the Cincinnati Reds prospects. And what better place to start than with Nick Senzel?
Despite the system believing that he won’t play anywhere near a full season, it still projects him to be the 6th most valuable position player on the team – ahead of Jose Peraza and Jesse Winker (who also doesn’t have a full-season of time projected for him). ZiPS projects him for a .267/.335/.447 line with 1.9 WAR this season in 333 plate appearances.
It’s Senzel that everyone feels comfortable with being the rookie who is going to log real, useful playing time. And he’s also the one that projects the best, which isn’t surprising. He’s an elite prospect and has spent time in Triple-A where he performed well. But are there are any other guys who could be useful in 2019 for the Reds from the prospect group?
Jose Siri is the position player with the second best projection in terms of WAR from the rookies. At the plate the system thinks he’ll struggle to hit or get on base. But ZiPS thinks there’s going to be power and he’ll steal a bunch of bases. His defensive value is set at 0, which I will argue for a while that is lower than it should be by quite a bit. His offensive line of .225/.272/.408 isn’t good in the slightest. But 41 extra-base hits and 23 steals in 448 at-bats certainly would play.
Top 10 prospects Tyler Stephenson and Taylor Trammell have both yet to see a pitch in Double-A. Because of that, the likelihood of them having a quality projection in the Major Leagues for 2019 are very, very small. Players simply don’t make that leap often. In terms of WAR, they are at 0.1 and 0.0 for the year.
When we look at the pitchers we see plenty of guys who the system just doesn’t think are quite ready yet. Tony Santillan and Vladimir Gutierrez are projected for ERA’s of 4.95 and 5.29 each. But, there is one rookie eligible pitcher who looks to be solid for 2019. Jimmy Herget. The right-handed reliever has a projected 4.21 ERA in 62.0 innings with 65 strikeouts.
Surprising Reds ZiPS numbers
After writing just yesterday that Connor Joe shares plenty of similarities with Max Muncy before his breakout in 2018, the ZiPS projection wants to crush that idea before it starts running. The system projects him for a .219/.307/.350 line this season and -0.6 WAR. As noted in the article yesterday, though, before 2018 when he changed his hitting profile, he was a very different kind of offensive player. Those previous seasons are certainly weighing down the projection.
ZiPS also doesn’t think that Ibandel Isabel would hit much. It projects him for 218 strikeouts in just 416 at-bats. But also projects 26 home runs if he were given that amount of playing time.
I’m not entirely certain what defensive metrics are being used in this system when it comes to minor leaguers, but whatever they are, they rate Narciso Crook very highly. The 23-year-old grades out at a +6 defender, twice as valuable as any rookie on the list for the Reds. It ranks second among everyone on the team, trailing just Tucker Barnhart’s +7.
Tony Santillan projects for a better WAR, 0.7, than Sal Romano or Amir Garrett in 2019. For Garrett it’s due to the system projecting him as a reliever and only throwing 65.0 innings.
There’s a whole lot to dive into for the entirety of the Cincinnati Reds roster at the link above. You really should go check it all out. But it’s always interesting to take a closer look at the specifics of how the system projects the rookies to play. They are always the group that have the largest error bars in projections because the data used from past seasons simply isn’t as useful as past Major League performance.