Yesterday saw John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer speculate that the center field job is Nick Senzel’s to lose this spring on twitter.
Talked to Dick Williams about center field. Sounds like it’s Senzel’s job to lose: “. . . he will be given every opportunity to focus on center field, play center field, learn center field, improve in center field to see where he stacks up against our other options.” #reds
— John Fay (@johnfayman) February 1, 2019
A few hours later he published an article on the topic at the Cincinnati Enquirer. The main point of the article is essentially the same part of his tweet that’s posted above. The Cincinnati Reds are going to give him a real look out there in the spring. Nick Senzel will be given an opportunity to win the job – or so that’s what they are saying.
That kind of brings up the question, though, of how the Reds could actually handle the situation. On the surface, the idea is to just play the best players at the best position they can handle. If Nick Senzel is the best option for center field, then play him there and call it a day. But things aren’t always that simple, unfortunately. We’ve seen things play out over the last decade plus, time-and-again, where teams keep premiere prospects down for the first two weeks of the season in order to get an entire extra year of service time.
If the Reds deemed Nick Senzel ready from day one and called him up for opening day, and he never went back to the minors, he would be a free agent following the 2024 season. If the Reds were to call him up 11 days later, he would not become a free agent until after the 2025 season. That can work out for a team. But it may also work against the team.
Kris Bryant had this happen to him. He was sent to the Minor Leagues after spring training in 2015 despite hitting .425/.477/1.175 with 9 home runs in 14 games. Their reasoning? He needed to work on his defense. Less than two weeks later he was called up to the Major Leagues and has never looked back. He must have really figured out that defense thing quickly. Especially since in his first week in the majors he saw action in both center and left field – positions he never played a single inning of while in the minors.
Why does this matter? Well, because Kris Bryant is still awfully bothered by the fact that the Cubs treated him this way. He reportedly turned down a very large contract offer made by Chicago in the 2018 season. Retaining him for the Cubs isn’t going to be easy. Not just because the guy is a superstar and will cost plenty of money – money that the Cubs, of course, have – but because he doesn’t seem to be willing to give them any sort of discount, either. And the belief is that it’s because of how they treated him at the very start of his career.
That should be a consideration for the Reds when it gets to be decision time at the end of March. Is that extra year worth it if you hope to retain the player long term and they may, and should, hold it against you if you manipulate it? That’s a tougher question. The player isn’t guaranteed to sign with you long term even if you do treat them correctly. At the same time, if the player would have considered re-signing, you may have shot yourself in the foot from the very start.
The Reds are saying that they are going to give Nick Senzel the look. They are saying he’ll have the opportunity in center field this spring. The look is that they are “going for it” in 2019. There’s been multiple acquisitions that are only for this upcoming season in mind. The words and the actions seem to follow that. As was noted yesterday, ZiPS seems to put the Reds, as the roster stands right now, in the thick of playoff contention. When you are at that point, every single win matters. A handful of games without a player, while thinking six or seven years down the road, could be worth considering, too.
Put yourself in the Cincinnati Reds front offices seat. Spring training is winding down and Nick Senzel is the best center fielder on your roster. What do you do? Are you thinking about the 2025 season? Or are you bringing him up for Opening Day and thinking about 2019?