Mariel Bautista missed a week after injuring himself on April 27th with the Dayton Dragons. Since he returned things had been a bit slow for the outfielder at the plate, going 1-11 with 5 strikeouts. But on Monday night he showed a sign that he’s getting back in the groove at the plate. He crushed a home run, hitting on top of the concessions stand beyond the fence in left field in Dayton. It came off of the bat at 105 MPH and went 411 feet.


The Cincinnati Reds #9 prospect had been hitting well prior to his injury on the 27th of April, hitting .310/.396/.524 with 5 walks and 6 strikeouts over his last 11 games.

While Mariel Bautista had an early blast, it was the one hit by Bren Spillane that would ultimately win the game for the Dragons. Down 4-3 in the bottom of the 8th inning, Spillane came up with a runner on and put Dayton ahead with a 2-run homer – his 3rd home run of the season.


Nick Senzel’s hot start with the Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have certainly seen the benefits of playing their best 25 players since calling up outfielder Nick Senzel. On Monday afternoon he hit two home runs – both to right field. His first home run of his career, coming on Saturday, was also to right field. Through his first 21 trips to the plate in the Major Leagues he’s posted an OPS of 1.146 despite a BABIP of .111.

Scott Moss strikes out 10 in 6.0 no-hit innings

It’s been a bit of a strange year in 2019 for Scott Moss. The left-handed pitcher moved up to Double-A and he’s been good in some areas, and he’s had some struggles in others. Last night saw that continue in Chattanooga. On the good side, he dominated the Tennessee Smokies hitters for 6.0 innings, giving up no hits and he struck out 10 batters. That lowered his ERA on the season to 3.86 for the Lookouts.

On the struggle side, he walked four batters. And it’s those walks that’s been the struggle for the lefty this season so far. He’s walked 26 batters in 28.0 innings this season. But he’s also struck out 42.The strikeouts and walks are both up significantly this season for the former Florida Gator. It’s worth keeping an eye on his rates throughout the season.

12 Responses

  1. Doc

    I don’t understand all the advanced sabermetrics. What I am reading would seem to say that we could expect Senzel, over the course of a season, to regress to the BABIP mean since he doesn’t have an MLB track record. With a mean of around .300, we should be seeing a lot of good to better hitting yet to come. Does that make sense as an interpretation of BABIP?

    • Stock

      I would not say better at all. You don’t do much better than Senzel has done thus far. I would say he should have better luck in the future. Maybe someone won’t climb a fence and steal a HR.

      • Doc

        I thought replay showed that the fence climber actually had to come back a bit for the ball, not really stealing a HR since the ball would have hit the wall. Seems that was at least partially supported by an estimated distance of 395 ft on a ball hit right at the ~402 sign.

        That aside, if BABIP means batting average on balls in play, and he is currently at .111, and he moves to the mlb average of .300, that means better hitting is yet to come.

        Understood that Doug’s comment about sample size applies; BABIP is usually applicable over about a 3 year sample size, which is why I used mlb average to posit my question since Senzel won’t have a three year sample size for {drum roll}…three years. And, yes, agree that he will not hit 3 HR every four games; even the steroid era didn’t achieve that.

    • RojoBenjy

      Doc- I think it’s the opposite way; meaning that his BAPIP being low shows “bad luck” as it were, and that more will start falling in.

      However i’m not really sure that’s what it means. If someone corrects me, go with the correction.


      • Doc

        BABIP measures luck, defense and talent, not just luck.

    • Doug Gray

      In such a small sample size, it’s not worth diving much into. But, essentially, he’s probably going to carry a higher average, and not slug .750 lol.

      • Oldtimer

        He is unlikely to hit 3 HR in every 4 games the rest of the season. He is off to a good start. Reds CF for the next decade.

  2. Stock

    How good has Senzel been so far:

    Per Statcast players with at least 50 Batted Ball events:

    Barrells hit

    Gary Sanchez 19.5%
    Joey Gallo 14.3%
    Anthony Rendon 14.0%
    Jose Abreu 13.5%
    Franmil Reyes12.9%

    Senzel is at 19.0%

    Among qualified players his 50% hard hit % ranks in the top 20. If he keep hitting it hard the hits will start falling in.

  3. Michael Smith

    I may be wrong but I do not think that home runs are part of babip. I thought it only factored in balls in play and takes out k’s and hr’s

    • Doug Gray

      Correct. Homers aren’t a part of BABIP.

  4. Cguy

    Doug, it seems the most intriguing position in the organization so far this year is ss. Besides signing Jose Iglesias for the ML team and trading Jeter Downs away in the Dodger deal, Reds MiL ss are off to an impressive start. Your Top 25 Prospects (#12) Jose Garcia & (#13) Miguel Hernandez are both doing well. Previous Top 25 Prospect(s) Alfredo Rodriguez (2017) is carrying a +.300 BA , and Calten Daal (2014) is active again & looking good. Apparently the Reds have signed Cuban ss prospect Michael Triana & will annouce that signing in early July. Finally there’s some talk the Reds could draft Bryson Stott in the first round next month. Could at some point you compare the strengths, weaknesses, & ceilings of all these guys? What was an organizational weakness could soon become one of its strong suits.

  5. AirborneJayJay

    I am happy about Scott Moss getting back in a groove. He always had a small problem with BB’s, but nothing like 26 BB’s in 28 IP’s. That is some step backwards. But on the K side, a large step forward. I’d like to see him get that ERA down closer to 3.00, though.