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With the 2019 Draft behind us, and what seems like nearly everyone signed – and certainly anyone who would make the Reds Top 25 prospect list signed, now is a great time to have an update to the list that includes 1st half performances as well as the new additions to the organization.
*All stats through June 17th*
1. Taylor Trammell | Outfielder
With the graduation of Nick Senzel, and with Hunter Greene undergoing Tommy John surgery, Taylor Trammell jumps up to the #1 spot in the organization by default. His performance has some good in it, but there are also some concerns. Over the last year he’s hit for the power that you’d expect to see from Billy Hamilton. That lack of power has led to a lower average in Double-A this season, too, where he’s currently hitting .245/.366/.333. His walk rate and stolen base rate are strong. The complete lack of power, however, is a concern of sorts. He’s still very young for the level, and the fact that everyone believes there’s power in there helps alleviate those concerns some. When the power starts to come in games more, the average should also rebound. Still, his stock is down a little bit this season despite him jumping up in the rankings. Current team: Chattanooga Lookouts- Injured list
2. Hunter Greene | Right-Handed Pitcher
It’s a lost season for Hunter Greene, who underwent Tommy John surgery this spring after re-injuring his elbow in the last start of spring training. Despite the obvious set back that likely keeps him out of games until about this time next summer, his upside remains incredibly high and what he showed last season when he was healthy keeps him a premium prospects even with Tommy John surgery now under his belt. Like Trammell, though, his stock is down a little bit – simply because surgery is never ideal. Current team: Not assigned – Injured list
3. Nick Lodolo | Left-Handed Pitcher
The Reds 1st round pick in the 2019 draft, and the #7 overall pick, Nick Lodolo has the profile that looks like everything you want to see out of a top-end prospect. He throws strikes, he misses bats, and the stuff stands out. He’s yet to make his professional debut, and while that in itself leaves open some questions – the scouting profile holds up well. Current team: Billings Mustangs
4. Tony Santillan | Right-Handed Pitcher
After taking a big step forward in 2018, splitting his season between Advanced-A Daytona and Double-A Pensacola, Tony Santillan returned to Double-A this season with the new affiliate in Chattanooga. It’s been an inconsistent first half for the 22-year-old righty, who has a 4.13 ERA in 72.0 innings. He’s struck out 71 batters, which is good to see. But his walk rate, which prior to 2018 had been a consistent problem, has nearly doubled last years rate. In 149.0 innings last season he walked 38 batters, and this season he’s already walked 33. With the walk issues showing back up, his stock is down a little bit. That said, his upside remains very high. Current team: Chattanooga Lookouts
5. Jonathan India | Third Base
The Florida State League is about as hitter unfriendly as it can be. It always has been. For Jonathan India it’s kept down the power numbers, at least without context. He’s hitting .257/.346/.422 with 19 extra-base hits in 61 games played. His OPS is 100 points higher than the league average. The 22-year-old is striking out 25% of the time he steps to the plate this season, which is a tad higher than you would like to see. The rest of his game, though is going as expected. His strikeout rate being where it is probably has his stock down a tiny bit, but not too much and he’s still a Top 100 caliber prospect. Current team: Daytona Tortugas
6. Tyler Stephenson | Catcher
Things have been solid, but unspectacular in 2019 for Tyler Stephenson. The catcher is hitting .265/.343/.374 for Double-A Chattanooga through 44 games played. He’s walked 17 times and struck out just 32 times – showing a good understanding of the strikezone. The power hasn’t really shown up much in Double-A this year, though much like teammate Taylor Trammell, the power is in there and should eventually start showing up in games. Defensively he continues to show improvements, and this season he’s thrown out 35% of attempted base runners. His stock is slightly up. Current team: Chattanooga Lookouts
7. Jose Siri | Outfielder
With Jose Siri it feels like the same things can be said for him today as you could have said about him two years ago. He’s got the best tools in the system when looking at the entire package. He’s got the speed, athleticism, and instincts to be an elite defensive center fielder. His arm is strong and plays well at times. At the plate, the tools are there for a guy who could hit for average and plenty of power. But his plate discipline/pitch recognition remains an issue. Siri has 18 walks this season to go with 78 strikeouts in 253 plate appearances. His strikeout rate of 31% simply has to improve if he’s going to scratch the surface of his offensive potential. He’s hitting .270/.323/.370 so far through 63 games, but that’s being buoyed by a .387 BABIP that is likely to come down in the future. Stock is slightly down because he hasn’t really taken a step forward this season – at least at this point. Current team: Louisville Bats
8. Jose Garcia | Shortstop
After starting the year on the injured list, Jose Garcia has hit well for the league and shown improvements nearly across the board compared to the 2018 season. He’s hitting .253/.317/.406 this season for Daytona with 15 doubles, a triple, and 3 home runs in 42 games. He’s nearly averaging an extra-base hit every other game. For a 21-year-old shortstop with above-average defense, yeah, that’s a good sign. The walk rate and strikeout rate have both improved slightly, but the big uptick in power despite a very difficult league to hit for power in is impressive. His stock may be up more than anyone else in the organization. Current Team: Daytona Tortugas
9. Mariel Bautista | Outfielder
Currently back in Goodyear on a rehab assignment with the Arizona League Reds, Mariel Bautista has had an inconsistent season. He flashes all of the tools you want to see – speed, power, defense, the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. But he’s also hitting .234/.299/.361 for Dayton through 42 games. A shoulder injury has kept him off the field for nearly the last month. A week or two of slumps hasn’t changed his prospect status this year, even though they have impacted his numbers for the Dragons in a small sample size this year. Current Team: Dayton Dragons – but rehabbing with the AZL Reds.
10. Michael Siani | Outfielder
If you look at the entirety of Michael Siani’s offensive season, it doesn’t look great. He’s hitting .233/.328/.335 on the season. But just a few weeks ago it was much worse than that. Siani, though, has gone on an absolute tear over the last three weeks, hitting .350/.422/.488 with 12 steals in his last 21 games played. When he was drafted last season, the defense was considered ahead of the bat, but many expected the bat to start to come around. And while the start to the season was very slow, the bat is coming around. Like Bautista, his stock is relatively unchanged at this point. Current team: Dayton Dragons
11. Stuart Fairchild | Outfielder
The second half of 2018 saw Stuart Fairchild struggle mightily for the Daytona Tortugas after being promoted from Dayton. And an April in which he battled a hamstring issue in 2019 looked like more of the same. But ever since the start of May, he’s been healthier and ripping the cover off of the baseball – looking much like the 2nd round pick he was just two years ago. After hitting just .130/.203/.167 in April over 15 games, the Wake Forest product has hit .322/.399/.562 in the 32 games since then, giving him a .780 OPS on the season for the Tortugas. His stock is up. Current team: Daytona Tortugas
12. Rece Hinds | Shortstop
The Reds 2nd round pick in the most recent draft will begin his season tonight with the Greeneville Reds as they open up their 2019 season. Known for his prodigious power, the infielder has plenty of upside thanks to it. Where he ultimately winds up on the field from a defensive standpoint is still up in the air, though most think he will slide off of shortstop in the long run (and some think it’ll happen sooner rather than later). Current team: Greeneville Reds
13. Tyler Callihan | Second Base
Cincinnati’s 3rd round pick this season, like Rece Hinds, will make his professional debut in Greeneville tonight as the Reds kick off their season. Fangraphs rated Callihan as the 25th best prospect in the entire draft, while Baseball America had him rated 37th overall. His bat profiles very well with the potential to hit for both power and average in the future. Defensively he’s likely going to wind up at second or third base, but his bat should play just fine at either spot. Current team: Greeneville Reds
14. Lyon Richardson | Right-Handed Pitcher
Last season the Reds picked Lyon Richardson in the second round of the draft. Coming out of high school he had been up to 98 MPH, but as a professional he didn’t get close to that mark, topping out around 94 MPH in his first season. And the numbers weren’t great, either – scouts noted he looked tired and worn down by the time he was pitching in the pro ranks. This season things have gone better for Richardson – much better, in fact. His ERA is sitting at 4.10 through 59.1 innings for Dayton and he’s walked just 18 batters to go with 50 strikeouts. While his velocity still isn’t touching 98, his fastball has picked up a tick or two over the last month from the earlier part of the season. His stock remains about the same. Current team: Dayton Dragons
15. Vladimir Gutierrez | Right-Handed Pitcher
In his first two seasons as a professional Vladimir Gutierrez had gotten out to slow starts. And then he’s rebounded quite well. This year, again, got out to a slow start. But unlike the previous two years when he got out to a slow start, the underlying numbers aren’t good at all. His ability to miss bats has completely disappeared at the Triple-A level. In 2017 he struck out 22% of the batters he faced. In 2018 that number jumped up to 23%. This season it’s plummeted to a Bronson-Arroyo esque 15%. And his walk rate is also at a career worst 8% – though, by itself, that’s a solid walk rate. His fastball has always had that “will the lack of movement catch up with him eventually” aspect to it, and it seems that maybe it finally has. His ERA currently sits at 8.01 through 13 starts for the Bats. Stock is clearly down. Current team: Louisville Bats
16. Joel Kuhnel | Right-Handed Pitcher
While other prospect ranking publications may have different rules than I do, generally speaking, with for-sure relievers until they reach Double-A it’s tough for them to really break into the Top 20 rankings. And even then, they’ve got to show the stuff that would ideally be able to work in at least the 8th inning at the Major League level. Prior the season Joel Kuhnel had shown the stuff, but he hadn’t yet pitched in Double-A. He’s now 35.2 innings in for Chattanooga and had dominated the Southern League to the tune of a 2.27 ERA with 8 walks – 3 of which are intentional, and 30 strikeouts. Stock is up for the top reliever in the system. Current Team: Chattanooga Lookouts
17. Josh VanMeter | Second Base
By the time this list hits the website, Josh VanMeter may not be eligible for it, and if not, the list will be adjusted. But he currently is three days short on service time from no longer being a “prospect”, so he’s on this list. Last year he really began to find what he had been looking for, a swing that helped him get the ball in the air more. Over the final 2 months of 2018 he OPS’d over .900 for the Louisville Bats, hitting 17 doubles, 4 triples, and 7 home runs in 51 games. That carried forward for the now 24-year-old who hit .336/.431/.736 in Triple-A this season before being promoted to the Major Leagues. He’s capable of playing all around the field, though as a starter his prospects are more second base and left field than anywhere else on the field. Stock is up quite a bit as he’s shown the changes made last season weren’t a fluke. Current team: Louisville Bats
18. Aristides Aquino | Outfielder
Up-and-down describes much of Aristides Aquino’s career. Year-to-year he has gone from The Punisher to a guy who hasn’t quite punished. But this season he’s back to being The Punisher and is having his best season of his career, and doing so at the highest level of the minor leagues. The outfielder is hitting .336/.389/.671, showing off big time power. He’s doubled 7 times, tripled once, and hit 13 home runs in just 39 games played – missing nearly a month with a shoulder injury. While the new usage of the Major League Baseball in Triple-A has led to unprecedented power output for many guys, Aquino isn’t exactly hitting wall-scraper home runs. In the last two weeks he’s hit three baseballs completely out of Louisville Slugger Field. And that’s nothing compared to the 449-foot homer he hit in Durham earlier in the month. He’s 25-years-old, so he’s getting to the point where he’s going to need to be given a chance to start now if he’s likely to ever get that kind of role, but he’s doing everything within his power to show he’s ready for that opportunity, too. Stock up. Current team: Louisville Bats
19. TJ Friedl | Outfielder
After finishing 2018 in Double-A, TJ Friedl has returned there this season – but in a different ballpark as the Reds switched affiliates from Pensacola to Chattanooga. His walk rate and strikeout rate are both up very small amounts. His power, though, is up quite a bit. What isn’t up is his BABIP, which is down nearly 70 points and has left him with a .230 batting average on the year – suppressing his on-base percentage to .337 and his slugging, which sits at .373. The uptick in power is small, but noticeable. His stock remains about the same as it was entering the year. Current team: Chattanooga Lookouts
20. Miguel Hernandez | Shortstop
It’s been a tough two-and-a-half months to start 2019 for Miguel Hernandez at the plate. He’s hitting just .224/.268/.309 on the season. The power has started to come around lately, hitting two home runs this month after not hitting any in April or May. But his walk rate is a bit low, and his strikeout rate has jumped up significantly this season compared to the past. There’s more power in there in the future, though he’s not likely going to ever wow anyone with his power output. The selling point here is his defense. He’s got the potential to be an above-average Major League shortstop where he’s got outstanding hands and a strong arm to go with good range. The bat needs to develop, and he’s going to need to really cut back on the strikeout rate he’s shown in 2019. His stock is down. Current team: Dayton Dragons
21. Jimmy Herget | Right-Handed Pitcher
The start of the season wasn’t a good one for Jimmy Herget. He posted a 5.68 ERA in April for the Louisville Bats and walked 14 batters in 12.2 innings. It was easily the worst month of his professional career. Since then, however, he’s been absolutely dominated out of the Bats bullpen. He’s thrown 20.2 innings with a 1.31 ERA, 6 walks, and he’s struck out 28 batters – looking more and more like the guy he has been for the entirety of his career. His stuff isn’t quite “back of the bullpen” caliber, but it’s quality stuff that should play in the Major Leagues just fine. His stock remains the same as it was entering the season. Current team: Louisville Bats
22. Juan Martinez | Third Baseman
The infielder had a bit of a breakout season in 2018 between Greeneville and Billings where he hit .270/.341/.460. This season with Dayton his numbers are down, posting a .250/.339/.384 line. His walk rate is up, but so is the strikeout rate. At 20-years-old, though, it’s more about how things look than the numbers being produced. And at the plate, things look good. There’s plenty of power potential in his bat, though he’s going to need to put the ball in the air a little more frequently than he currently does in order to tap into it fully. Defensively, the tools are there. He’s got plenty of arm for third base, and there’s athleticism there – but he’s had problems with errors as a pro and 2019 hasn’t been any different. He’s currently sporting an .845 fielding percentage in Dayton, having made 24 errors in 61 games played at third base. His stock is up slightly from the start of the season. Current team: Dayton Dragons
23. Andy Sugilio | Outfielder
The switch-hitting Andy Sugilio is currently rocking a .303/.338/.360 line for the Daytona Tortugas. An athletic outfielder capable of playing all three spots in the outfield, and one of the fastest players in the organization, he can impact the game in most aspects. There’s more pop in his game than he’s showing right now, but it’s a bit limited, too. He doesn’t draw many walks, and his strikeout rate is up a bit this season and a little bit higher than you’d like to see from a player that’s not much of a power threat. 20 of his 64 hits have been of the infield variety as he’s used his speed against opposing defenses well. Still, the uptick in strikeouts is a concern, and a 61% ground ball rate is severely limiting his ability to hit for power. His stock is slightly down from the start of the season. Current team: Daytona Tortugas
24. Ryan Hendrix | Right-Handed Pitcher
The season had been going well for Ryan Hendrix in April. He hadn’t allowed an earned run on the month and had 15 strikeouts while facing 44 batters for the Chattanooga Lookouts. But then his elbow began barking and he was placed on the injured list. He’s still on it, but *should* be back on the mound soon. When healthy he’s got elite stuff, but control has been an issue at times in the past. His stock remains unchanged. Current team: Chattanooga Lookouts – injured list
25. Keury Mella | Right-Handed Pitcher
It’s looking more likely than ever that Keury Mella may indeed be a better fit for the bullpen than for the rotation. Like Vladimir Gutierrez, he’s struggled to miss bats in Triple-A. His current strikeout rate is just 16.8%. He’ll turn 26 in early August, so time isn’t exactly on his side when it comes to being a starting pitcher. But he’s also a guy who has sat 95-97 at times this year in the rotation, and that probably picks up some if he moves to the bullpen where he’ll be able to let it go a little more due to the fact he won’t be needing to pace himself as much. One interesting note, here, is that his ground ball rate is at it’s highest level since 2014, sitting at 54% on the season – a well above-average rate. Still, his stock is down a little bit since the season began. Current team: Louisville Bats
No Alfredo Rodriguez? Doesn’t have to be a top 15 prospect but he’s actually hitting for once and is behind guys who have already cleared waivers/been DFA’d.
He’s hitting a bunch of singles. He’s 25 and struggles to hit the ball out of the infield in the air. I’m not rooting against him, but he’s hitting .304 and slugging .352. Even to stick around as a utility infielder you’re going to have to do more. It’s just very difficult to see how he’s going to a big leaguer unless he finds a way to hit the ball harder and there’s been absolutely no evidence at all that he can do that in his professional career.
Doug, I think there are 7 million reasons why he gets a big leagues shor. I think the amount of dollars invested in a player gets overlooked. It is why just about every undeserving first round pick gets a big league shot.
How would AlfRod comp to Jose Peraza?
MK, if the rosters in September weren’t going to be dropped down to 28 players instead of 40, I’d think maybe he might actually accrue a little bit more service time. But since they are dropping, he’s only getting called up if they truly need him.
That investment means he might get a cup of coffee somewhere along the lines. The chances that he sticks around in a role beyond “emergency” isn’t good.
Jose Peraza is and always has been considered a significantly better hitter. They aren’t comparable.
Also note that Jose Peraza is less than 2 months older than Alfredo Rodriguez is.
Woof, what a first half for the farm. This feels like a middle of the road farm system again.
I’d agree with that. Losing Senzel to graduation, and Greene to injury didn’t help. But the fact that the other top end guys didn’t really step forward, and some stepped back hurt, too. Long term it may not matter – but right now – it certainly moves things backwards in my mind. It’s not a barren system by any means – there’s some real talent in it. But there’s also a feeling of “where’s that dude” in the system and right now, that dude doesn’t exist. Well, maybe he exists, but he sure isn’t playing like that dude right now. And it makes the whole system feel a lot different.
Where do you think Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs would rank in this system?
Both would be top 5 for me. Downs is out-hitting India at the same level and is two years younger playing SS. Gray is outperforming what Santillan put up last year at the same age and level.
Downs isn’t a top 5 2B option for reds if he was still here though.
Gray 8 in front of Siri and downs 9 imo
Well he’s played exclusively SS for the Dodgers. He’d be the top SS prospect for the Reds.
I have no clue because I didn’t put in the time to talk to anyone about them, haven’t followed them, haven’t watched them at all this year. That said, a quick glance at their numbers say top 10-ish, but definitely outside of the top 6.
No confidence in Brian Rey?
I really like him, but wonder if he needs to perform consistently all year since returning from injury in order to garner attention.
I like what Brian Rey is doing. But he’s also played in about 90 games for his career, and fair or unfair, is going to have to be a guy who proves it at every step of the way.
Also surprised Packy Naughton didn’t make the cut.
I am, too.
Doug, was he on the bubble for you? What are you looking for in him before moving him up the list?
Thanks.
When the list was released on Patreon that was a question that was brought up. He was the #26 guy. If Josh VanMeter wasn’t optioned yesterday, he would have lost his eligibility to be on the list and Naughton would have made it.
Hey Doug, if you have a shortage of things to write about, perhaps a piece on “where are they now” former top 25 prospects. Who is still with the organization (Travieso, Jonathan Crawford, Nick Howard); who has moved on: Rookie Davis, Austin Brice etc.
Is there a Rylan Thomas update?
I am kind of surprised how fast our farm system went from AWESOME to meh… and it isn’t like the MLB team has them on display. Nick is there and he is doing o.k. but he is underperforming based on the hype. What happened? Did they all not pan out?
Well that was a rather depressing read.
I was hoping Nick Longhi would have earned his way back onto the list. Does he have a chance to be a legit big leaguer?
Yes he has a chance. But he’s going to have to make adjustments, too.
The Triple-A baseball was honestly the toughest thing to adjust to when it came to trying to figure out how to weigh the performance of some of those guys.
We’ll see what the next 12 months bring as far as the top talent guys being able to rebound. I’m trying to be patient. And in the last 6 years that I’ve been following RML, I have learned that some rebound, some get hurt and can’t get back, and others come out of nowhere to make a splash.
Alas, so far, none of the come out of nowhere guys have made a splash in MLB yet. Only those like Senzel that we knew were coming.
Top 7 are exactly who I’d have, but not in the order. Seems like I’m higher on India and Stephenson and not as sold on Lodolo. I’d have a hard time ranking him ahead of Santillan until he does something in full season ball. It’s hard for me to figure out how to rank Greene at this point so probably best to leave it to those who get paid to do it.
A little surprised we’re not seeing Naughton or Moss show up here. I also think Richardson is showing some good things in his first full season. I would rate him as stock up.
Scott Moss has walked far too many guys this year, without elite stuff, to get into the top 25. The stuff, has improved this year, but the control of it has gone south in a big way.
With Lodolo/Santillan, it comes down to believing in the control aspect of things. Last year I had gotten more than a few reports that the control wasn’t as good as the number of walks suggested. That’s fine because the walk rate was very, very good. But the control and walk rate have gone backwards quite a bit, giving more credence to those reports that I probably didn’t put quite enough stock into. With Lodolo, the stuff is similar to that of Santillan, and the reports on the control are all better. It’s a toss up, though. They’re close.
With Richardson, I’m fine if some people want to say his stock is up. They probably didn’t think he was as high as I did after last season. I didn’t really put much stock into his struggles last year, so that he’s a lot better this year hasn’t changed my view because I wasn’t really bothered or concerned about what happened in Greeneville last season.
Appreciate the response. I would be one who tends to weigh upper minors production a little heavier than scouting reports. I like it when I can see the tools in action against stiffer competition. I’ve seen Santillan find some level of success in AA, no idea how Lodolo will do as a professional. I get the stuff about Moss and Santillan’s walk rates. It is a concern. And yeah I was probably too low on Richardson coming into the year.
I read the list as a reality piece. The reality is that baseball is hard, really hard. The point of Milb is for players to develop. I believe the Reds are in a development phase. Trammell isn’t hitting for power but he always has and he is young for the league he is in. India is getting the Florida League treatment. Greene unfortunately got hurt-pitchers get hurt-just have to deal with it. Santillan is back to walking a bunch again etc… I believe the Reds are simply in a system wide development phase. With Winker, Mahle, Senzel, Castillo etc. have all moved to the majors and look very, very promising. Looking at the age of the prospects in relation to what level they are in and the results we are seeing, I’m optimistic.
I’m with you. However, I hope they put more focus on the development part than they had been.
When does Jimmy get the call? He is 25 and we would have him under control until he is 32? Don’t think he has much left to prove in the minors.
When there’s room in the Majors for him. Right now there simply isn’t.
Yet replaceable talents like Zach Duke and Wandy Peralta continue to pitch poorly in the majors. I get it that they’re both lefties, but do the Reds really need two well below average LOOGIES in the pen.
Zach Duke has allowed 1 earned run since May began. That’s about the same time that Herget began turning his season around. Peralta is on the injured list right now. So he’s not exactly taking a spot from anyone.
I’d have Siri 15th and Van Meter hovering around 8-10. India’s probably #2 for me. Trammell, India, Lodolo, Greene, Stephenson, Garcia, Santillian.
Not ideal first half, but that’s life in minor league baseball. In all I stay somewhat impressed with state of reds farm; lots of high end talent and depth.
if the farm exists to make major league team better than this system is even better. Trammell and India are trade headliners while Santillan and Stevenson are fantastic second pieces for top talent.
Reds need a top of rotation pitcher to go w Castillo. Go get scherzer or Greinke and this team is much much better
I agree, I’m mostly satisfied with the top 20. I really like the potential in 9-14 to step forward the next 18 months.
With Puig and Wood not looking like QO candidates thus far, it makes that trade less effective for the organization. Not only are they not getting the MLB results they bargained for, but the talent they sent out will not be replaced like I thought it would.
the minor league pitching is horrible this year. On the flip side, it looks like our major league pitching is thriving – which is what I’ve been hoping to see for 3 years. I’m very encouraged by both starter and reliever stats. Also, I think the hitting and defense in minors is improving. There is some real offensive talent coming, just needs time and repetitions . Compared to previous years, the major league roster is very talented. We need one stud outfielder, one more starting pitcher, and one high octane reliever to develop – then we’ll be set for a good run because the rest of the roster looks really good and the financials are well in order for future years.
I’d like to see them lock up one of Roark or Wood for 3 more years at a reasonable rate. Then I would feel really good about next year. The pitching stats are awesome compared to last year – give Derek Johnson a raise now!
I guess I’m a bit surprised at these rankings. I thought we had 5 really good prospects going into the year (Senzel, Greene, Trammell, Santillan, and India). With Senzel graduating, and India being the only one who has really performed well this season so far, I was expecting India to be #1. I guess I was off by quite a bit.
We need to also understand that “the performance” aspect of the updated rankings includes 2 months of performance. While there can certainly be gains and losses within there, it’s relatively a very small sample size of data over the large picture.
Take Trammell for example: What’s holding back his performance? For me it’s easy to see – it’s the lack of power in the games. So the question then is: Do I think he’s going to hit for power in the future? The answer is yes. So while his performance does have him dinged a little bit, in the long term – which is what I’m ranking on – I think he’s mostly the same exact dude he was in March.
I also think that India, who I definitely think is a very good prospect, was higher on national lists than I would have had him coming into the year (in terms of the top 100’s, for example – not on the Reds specific lists). He’s up a little bit, but he hasn’t gone out there and dominated, either.
As I noted above – the fact that there’s not really a high end prospect in the organization that’s gone out and played very well this season, put up big numbers, leaves a feeling of “ugh” with a lot of people. There’s still half of a season to play, so it could still happen with a big second half. But the guys that have been the “big performers” have been the guys in Triple-A with the crazy baseball, and a few pitchers that are relievers or backend starter types if things go just right for them.
@doug
So what your saying is no one from the top of the list is having a season like the Punisher is in Louisville.
I guess I am seeing things differently than most. 10 players are doing good things.
Tyler Stephenson – 22 year old catcher is holding his own after the big jump to AA. He has taken a big step forward in my book. Raked at # 5.
Josh Vanmeter – Love the K/BB ratio. Really impressing me. Hard for a young player to be any good with few AB like he received in Cincinnati. Given regular AB he should be better than Gennett. I have him ranked # 6.
Mike Siani – The mans seems to have figured out A ball. He maintains his # 8 ranking I gave him in November but his stock is way up. I could see him moving into the top 6 by year end.
Jose Garcia – He is finally showing what I thought I would see last summer. #9
Lyon Richardson – I loved the picks of Gray and Richardson last year. Two players with little time at pitching and lots of room to grow. Reminded me of Amir Garrett a bit. Richardson has been pretty impressive in his last 8 starts (2.54 ERA) and is young for A ball. #10
Claudio Finol and Debby Santana – The Reds thought enough of Finol to give him some AB in A ball this year. He needs to fill out but is still very young. Santana would have been drafted this year and last August he was fantastic in AZ. Disappointed he is still in AZ though.
Andy Sugilio – Has turned it around after last years disappointing season. From 19 to 18.
Joel Kuhnel – RP but quality stuff so far #22
Stuart Fairchild – He is finally hitting again. He is back in my top 25 at #24. As much as he struggled with the jump from A to A+ am concerned the jump from A+ to AA will slow him down and at age 23 he needs to move faster.
Granted, Trammell and Santillan have been disappointment thus far this year. Siri has not been bad but he has dropped from #7 on my list to #11. Bautista has been bad and dropped one spot to #17. And Clementina has dropped out. With the exception of losing Senzel the upgrades outweigh the downgrades thus far this year.
Doug – an idea for your site. I’m not aware of anywhere on the interwebs where I can get a quick glance at the running stats for the Reds top 25 prospects throughout the season all on one page. MLB Pipeline requires me to click through each player profile. This would be a nice feature that would drive me to your site more often.
Nearly every single guy on this list has been worse (for long stretches at least) than anyone thought they would be a year ago. And no likelihood of any trades to add value on July 31. That stinks!
Our starting lineup in 2 years?