The Cincinnati Reds have reportedly acquired right-handed pitcher Trevor Bauer from the Cleveland Indians. In exchange the Reds and Padres moved several players. The Reds have traded big league outfielder Yasiel Puig, minor league outfielder Taylor Trammell, and minor league pitcher Scott Moss. The Padres moved outfielder Franmil Reyes, prospect pitcher Logan Allen, and prospect third baseman Victor Nova. Let’s break down who is going where, though.
Cincinnati Reds
- The Cincinnati Reds acquired right-handed pitcher Trevor Bauer.
Cleveland Indians
- The Cleveland Indians acquired outfielder Yasiel Puig, outfielder Franmil Reyes, pitching prospect Logan Allen, prospect pitcher Scott Moss, and third base prospect Victor Nova.
San Diego Padres
- The San Diego Padres acquired outfield prospect Taylor Trammell.
From the Reds side of things
The Reds are improving their rotation, without question. Trevor Bauer is a good, but not great pitcher. He’s similar to Homer Bailey for the few years before he got injured – he tantalizes with the upside, but hasn’t really put it together to dominate. Well, sort of. He did do that in 2018. But in 2014 and 2015 he was a slightly below-average pitcher, posting a 94 and 95 ERA+. Then in 2016 and 2017 he was slightly above-average, posting a 106 and 109 ERA+. Then in 2018 he posted a 198 ERA+, dominating for the 175.1 innings that he was healthy. In 2019 he’s been good, posting a 125 ERA+ in an American League best 156.2 innings. That’s good, well above-average, but it’s not elite. It’s borderline All-Star worthy.
That gives the Reds a top three pitchers heading into 2020, and heck, the rest of 2019, of Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer, and Sonny Gray. That’s a rotation that will hold it’s own against just about any in baseball, and probably give you an advantage over most.
But, they are also giving up offense in 2019, probably. Yasiel Puig is only hitting .255/.305/.480 on the season – basically a league average bat. But he’s been a very different player for the last three months than he was in the first five weeks of the season. He’s hitting .286/.343/.542 in 70 games since May 3rd. Puig’s been a difference maker with the bat for quite a while now. His offense will likely be replaced with some combination of Jesse Winker, Josh VanMeter, and Phillip Ervin working on the corners around Nick Senzel in center.
With the prospects the biggest piece moving is Taylor Trammell. The Cincinnati Reds top prospect according to every reliable prospect source around, Trammell has spent his entire year in Double-A Chattanooga. He’s hitting just .236/.350/.338 this season through 93 games with 54 walks, 85 strikeouts, and he’s stolen 17 bases. The power hasn’t played, or really shown up yet in Double-A for Trammell. He’s just 21-years-old, and really, no one thinks he’s not going to start showing it in the future despite how things have looked in 2019.
There are areas where Taylor Trammell needs to continue to work on. Obviously he’s going to have to find a way to turn his raw power into some game power. That’s true for a lot of 21-year-olds, though. While his strikeout rate isn’t bad, it’s not exactly great, either – sitting at 22.5% on the year. And defensively, his arm doesn’t stand out. It’s a below-average arm, but one that I personally believe is enough to play center field. It will be a weakness there, but as I’ve continued to say – if Johnny Damon‘s wet-noodle arm could play in center, then there’s no reason at all that Taylor Trammell’s arm can’t because it’s better than that. Range wise, at least for now, he’s got plenty enough speed to handle the position even though he’s been in left field almost the entire year with Jose Siri handling center.
Then there’s left-handed pitcher Scott Moss. Depending on which prospect list you want to look at, he’s anywhere from #12 in the organization (MLB Pipeline, to unranked in the Top 25 (my own list). Like Trammell, he’s spent his entire season with Double-A Chattanooga. The 24-year-old has made 20 starts and has a 3.44 ERA in 102.0 innings. He’s allowed just seven home runs and he’s struck out 123 batters, but he’s also walked 57 of them.
For Scott Moss this season has been an interesting one. He’s got the highest strikeout rate of his career, sitting at 28.2% on the year. But his walk rate is almost double what it was last season and at a career high 13.1%. That rate has improved quite a bit in the last 9 starts, dating back to June 7th, though. In that stretch he’s walked just 15 batters in 50.1 innings, giving him a strikeout rate of 6.9%.
Unlike Trammell, Moss isn’t viewed as a potential future All-Star caliber player. While opinions do vary a bit with the lefty, the majority of people that I’ve spoken to this season think he’s potentially a #5 starter if things go right for him, but most likely a solid reliever.
Final Thoughts (for now)
In a day and age when it seems that how many years a player has remaining until they hit free agency is significantly more important than how good a player is, it feels like the Cincinnati Reds overpaid to acquire Trevor Bauer. A lot of people are pointing to what the Mets had to give up for Marcus Stroman and then looking at what the Reds had to give up for Bauer and the two things simply don’t match up. At all.
I posted this thought on twitter, and I’ll post it again here. In todays day and age when no one is seemingly wanting to give up young players with team control, the Reds just traded a player in Taylor Trammell who is universally considered a Top 50 prospect (and a Top 25 guy in some places) for 8 months worth of a good, but not elite pitcher. That alone feels like it’s a lot. the fact that they also threw in Yasiel Puig and Scott Moss just pushes things even further in the wrong direction.
I’m the kind of trade evaluation guy that how things looked the day of the trade is how things are. No matter how it works out in the end, my feelings aren’t really going to change because all of the known information at the time of the trade is all that you could evaluate it on. If that information changes it doesn’t alter the decision made at the time. If Trevor Bauer wins the Cy Young Award next year for the Reds, it’ll be great. But that’s not the guy they traded for. They traded for a borderline All-Star caliber pitcher. They didn’t trade for Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer.
This trade is going to improve the Reds in 2020. For as much as I think that Taylor Trammell will eventually put it all together, I don’t think that 2020 is the year he’ll outperform a Trevor Bauer caliber big leaguer. Getting to face the pitcher and lesser-than-DH caliber hitters in the National League will be interesting to see for Bauer’s numbers. But he also has to pitch in Great American Ballpark, and that usually doesn’t help pitchers.
Looking back on this deal, the Reds are really going to need to win games in 2020 for this to not feel like a kick in the gut down the line. The Reds may think that 76 wins is great in 2019, but despite what Bob Castellini thinks about that, it’s not. And playing for those 76 wins by trading your top prospect is a big stretch. Fortunately Trevor Bauer is around for 2020, too. But the Reds had better make it count because after that he’s gone. And so is Taylor Trammell. And so is Scott Moss. If Cincinnati doesn’t do something on the field in 2020, this will look quite bad. The Reds probably aren’t done building for next season. And this might just be step one. But they still need to add to this team for 2020 to get where they want to be.
Oh man I hope that’s not true….what a light return
Congrats to Taylor Trammel not having to be a Cincinnati Red.
The Reds better be getting more than just Bauer. He’s a good pitcher but not a chance he resigns with the Reds. This front office is baffling
Does not look it.
Bad trade DW panicked .
Castellini
Insert Scream gif
6 years of Trammel and possibly the most exciting player to put on a Reds uni in a decade, for 1 year of control, the fans deserve more
Please your exciting guy has zero power,doesn’t even start in CF,strikes out a ton and is hitting .236 in AA. Bauer can be flipped at some point for a better prospect than Trammel.
This!
He’s talking about Puig
I don’t get the mindset here. I’m a Reds fan… our top prospect is a guy hitting .236 with no power in AA. He’s all projection at this point. For reference, here’s how some other 21 year old Reds OF’s did in AA:
Winker, age 21 AA: .282, 13 homers, 74 walks
Senzel, Age 22 AA: .321, 14 homers, 49 walks
Trammel might be a star. But I’d have a difficult time believing that right now. And, if he’s not a star, do you care how many seasons of control you have? It’s about talent, not control. MLB teams that are obsessed with control will have lots of controllable mediocrity. There are drafts every year, and trades made every year…the Reds will be just fine. And I applaud them for just pulling the trigger.
Final point…here are the Reds top 10 prospects from 2009. How many years of control did it matter for many of these guys?
1) Yonder Alonso, 1B
2) Todd Frazier, INF
3) Chris Valaika, SS,
4) Neftali Soto, 3B,
5) Drew Stubbs, OF,
6) Josh Roenicke, RHP,
7) Zach Stewart, RHP,
8) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
9) Daryl Thompson, RHP
10) Juan Francisco, 3B,
Moss too? They better be getting back more than Bauer.
Moss going to Cleveland yes. Reds get Bauer.
Not sure if this trade means the Reds organization wants to stomp on any aspirations their fans have of winning in the future, or if they just want to give their entire fan base a massive middle finger salute?
Happens every year!
Waiting for the part that Reds get Gore to make this make a bit more sense…
Crazy great trade for the Indians – short and long term. Don’t understand what the Padres get out of it. And the Reds angle seems odd. Unless, they see something they don’t like in Trammell or think that he can be replaced easily.
I’m thinking that the Reds believe that they have a glut of OFrs. Now Winker, Senzel, VanMeter, and Ervin will all see the field regularly. We won’t know for quite some time whether Trammell is really legit.
I’m loving that 2020 rotation. Castillo, Bauer, Gray, Disco, Mahle … as it stands now. The lineup is pretty darn good, as is the bullpen. Add a decent reliever (via a Roark or Wood trade?), and we should have some great baseball to watch.
No guts, no glory. Thumbs up.
Bauer’s FIP suggests he’s gotten a little lucky this year. Does that mean that regression is in his future? Maybe. Effectively wild… don’t like the sound of that bcuz it suggests that the wildness could eventually win out one day.
The Reds need offense and we just traded a big producer away plus our number one prospect who was playing through injuries at a new level…so maybe that explains his numbers this year. Should’ve maybe been given more time to adjust.
Bauer says he’s only signing one year deals! What the heck is that about?
Maybe Puig wouldn’t of resigned with us, but ya never know.
I’m just saying that there’s a lot to not like about this trade.
If Bauer pitches lights out then I hope we’ll be able to convince him to sign a longer term deal. If not, then we gave up too much.
Brian – I don’t have Bauer’s stats open anymore, but wildness didn’t seem to be much of an issue. His K/BB ratio was strong this year and ridiculous in 2018 (almost 4-1). His WHIP is very good, and overall his numbers mirror Gray’s. Except that Gray had more early success in his career than Bauer, whose success has come later.
Bauer slots in nicely as a #2 starter , which makes Gray a real nice #3. The rotation is now stacked.
While I liked Puig, I’m not convinced that his production can’t be replaced by VanMeter and Ervin, at a fraction of the cost. And, like you said, Puig was not signed past this year.
We won’t know about Trammell until about 5 years from now. However, the FO has a better feel for his likelihood of success than we do.
The Reds are a much better team today than they were yesterday. Is it a gamble? Sure. However, it would’ve been a gamble counting on Trammell as well.
Hard to be optimistic as a Reds fan these days. What strategy does this team have? Can’t develop starting pitchers and have to over pay to get them (See Josiah Gray and Trammel).
What is the difference between developing starting pitching and using the guys being developed to acquire starting pitching. You partially developed a couple guys who got you an All Star pitcher. Same outcome.
After the Stroman deal, why in the world would they not have just gone after him? Moss could have been half the return by himself.
The strangest part of the trade. Is how in the heck was Puig still in the game after the trade? I’ve never seen that before
Trammell is hitting .236, his OBP declining along with his slugging percentage… Moss is a 24 yr old AA pitcher… the Reds aren’t trading Mays & Seaver…
Trammell is good enough that the Padres sent several good players out just to get him.
Huge win with the Indians terrible trade for the other two teams.
He’s got good speed and is an ideal leadoff hitter with a high OBP + speed.
Trammell is only 21 and has a 0.350 OBP vs AA pitching.
His batting average is lower this year with a low babip, but his track record and ability to get on base vs older competition make him a great prospect.
To paraphrase an old quote from Al Ferrara in 1971 (when Reds traded Angel Bravo for him) What Did You Expect For Angel Bravo? Willie Mays?
1/2 year of Puig and 6 years of Trammell and Moss for 1.5 years of Bauer.
Reds strength was SP before this trade.
Williams and Krall quit now
Amen
Williams and Krall quit now. Until they both quit, they should not follow this team.
This is all about trying to sell tickets for Reds in off season…
Love trade for Indians amazing haul for Bauer. Deal is puzzling for SD unless they are moving Trammell as key piece to get Noah Syndergaard… to give up Reyes, Allen and a rookie league prospect for just Trammell is very strange… SD is desperately trying to acquire a front line starter to go with there young pitching… Reds need to sign Bauer beyond 2020 to make it worth capital they gave up.. Also brawl tonight was crazy, Bell was already tossed, then charged Pirates bench and was choked out.. expect he will be suspended for at least 10 games… Sad we have an immature, and inexperienced manager, who doesnt seem like the right hire… he has been brutal in one run games….
Great deal for the reds… Castillo, Baurer, Grey and Wood (they re-sign), Disco, Mahle… great staff… my bet is the front office told Puig’s agent that they are going to re-sign him this off-season… Trammell might become a star, but the reds are in a position they can’t wait for prospects anymore… resign Iglesias for SS…
If we got nothing but 1.5 years of Trevor Bauer for 0.5 year of Puig, 6 years of Trammell, and 6 years of Moss, these guys are bigger idiots than I thought…
Trammell ALONE for 1.5 years of Bauer is too much!
Is this suddenly going to make us awesome in 2020? Slotting Bauer in place of Roark, which is a marginal improvement at best? Really?
This is so monumentally stupid… please tell me there’s more than just Bauer!!!!
If reds can extend Bauer past next season it’s a good trade. He’s a better #2 than gray; especially for playoffs. Next season
Castillo
Bauer
Gray
Wood
Disco
That’s a very good rotation.
I’m ready for the Aquino show! He’s got a super high ceiling and should be called up tonight.
Need Aquino for the fight tomorrow
And wood is/will be a FA next yr. that rotation would need the reds to resign him. Which I’m all for. But he’ll prob be pricy
They got the best player in the deal by far. I’ll take the sure thing every time. Rotation next year is solid and they still have rental pieces to trade.
Have you actually looked at Bauer’s numbers? He’s not really even a number two right now. He was nails last year, but that’s about it. He’s a mid-rotation guy. He’s also already come out and said that he is going to test free agency and doesn’t even plan to sign a contract for more than a year at a time.
Bauer is a legit #2, with upside. And he’s only 28 years old. His 2018 campaign was aces, and if you’re complaining about his 2019 numbers, well look back at some of the starting pitchers for the Reds over the past 20 years. His 2019 numbers are well above average.
The Reds just pushed their chips in, perhaps all in. Roark and Wood may also be moved. I was in favor of trying to re-sign Wood, but I have a hard time believing that they’ll tie up/invest most of their assets in the starting 5 (at least more so than they are now).
Castillo, Bauer, Gray, Disco, Mahle/Sims Great rotation, very good BP, solid line-up. The FO isn’t sitting on their hands, and I’m on board with it. Anything they do to improve the team going forward will just be gravy.
Clint Hurdle is the embarassment.
Can we stop with this nonsense that Bauer is anything better than a middle of the rotation guy.
He’s certainly not a #1, and not even a #2.
Heading into last year he never had a single season with an ERA below 4.18, and had a career ERA+ under 100.
Outside of 2018, Bauer is historically a mediocre innings-eater who gives up too many home runs, and has bad control walking and hitting opposing batters.
Over his past 18 starts, he has returned back to his pre-2018 numbers (showing those were a fluke season), sporting a 4.42 ERA and walking about 3 1/2 batters per 9.
GKC – You make your case by stripping out Bauer’s two best years, the most recent two years, and then saying without all of his recent success he’s a sub 100 ERA+ guy. Creative. Yes, let’s ignore his age 27 and 28 seasons, and give more weight to his early 20’s seasons. He’s every bit as good a pitcher as Sonny Gray, and then some.
earmbrister,
I’m pretty sure I didn’t strip out his “2 best years”. Bauer hasn’t even had 2 good years to strip out.
I removed the stretch of 26 games which are the outlier of his career.
Putting it another way…
From 2016 thru the first month or so of 2018, Bauer pitched 75 games with a 4.08 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8+ hits/9 IP, about 3 K/BB
For a 26 game span from early-mid 2018 until early 2019, Bauer pitched very uncharacteristically well, with a 1.91 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, about 6 hits / 9 IP, and almost 4 K/BB.
But over the past 18 games, he has returned to “regular Bauer”, tossing a 4.42 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, surrendering over 8+ hits / 9 IP, and back to around 3 K/BB.
Even a good, not great, pitcher like Bauer can surprise with a string of good outings in an otherwise ‘meh’ career. Homer Bailey did it back around 2013. Somebody like RA Dickey turned his little blip of success into a Cy Young award.
We can’t take away from Bauer, the 1 nice run of games he had. But to expect him to catch lightning in a bottle and do it again is a bit unrealistic. That ship has sailed.
The Reds are the 6 year old at the baseball card swap meet getting duped by all the six year olds in trades.
And I was the one that caught grief in this blog for suggesting that other teams GMs light up with a smile whenever they see Williams or Krall on their caller ID.
Duped by all the sixth graders in trades *
Let’s wait and see if there is an extension in the works for Trevor. The Sonny Gray deal didn’t look good until his extension was announced.
Now if there is no extension it will be kind of hard to swallow.
There won’t be an extension coming because Bauer has stated he doesn’t plan on signing long term anywhere. He wants one year deals so that he isn’t locked in anywhere.
Hypothetically, if the Reds worked out a year or two extension with Bauer to keep him here for at least two seasons after this year, who would favor this trade?
Hypothetically, yes.
In reality—do you see it happening?
Bauer has come out and said he’s going to test free agency and never plans to sign for more than a year at a time. Unless he’s changed his mind, it won’t happen.
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. So he would tie himself to a comp pick every year ?? Hope he has an agent who can talk some sense into him. Gives reds a ton of leverage though if it’s true. And I’d rather see reds pay him 30 mil one season at a time than locked up for a several year extension.
That’s exactly what he should say. Why would he publicly make his team aware that he wants to sign an extension. If the Reds offered him that extra couple of years at say 20 milllion a year, he could be a cheaper option as a TOR guy then they’re gonna find by digging into the FA market.
We’ll see.
Wes,
1) He has said that he is going to go one year at a time…..precisely because he can get more per year on one year deals than on multiple year deals.
2) He represents himself….so his agent isn’t talking him out of anything.
3) under the new rules, players are only tied to a comp pick once. (ie: they can only be offered a Qualifying Offer once)
So yes, he’s expecting to get 30 to 35 million a year, going on year at a time.
Thanks Indy ! Was not aware u can only be offered 1 QO. The one thing players union got right lol
4 years 80 million is where convo starts.
That wildly depends on how well he pitches or not. If he tosses lights out baseball he gets whatever the market can bare. If, on the other hand he just falls apart no team in it’s right mind gives him 80 million bucks unless they’re the Reds in which case all bets are off.
OK, not really. The truth is nobody really knows what tomorrow brings. If we all knew what the future held we’d all live in Utopia.. We don’t.
Reds need to show a little class and suspend bell for season and then fire him. He’s an embarrassment to baseball! How do u get thrown out of a game and then try to bum rush a 62 year old man ??
Bell also set an mlb record for most ejections for a rookie manager. League been around for over a 120 years and he sets that record. He’s a hot head loser with no experience and he’s out of his league. Give the fans a manager we can believe in !!
I mean the Cubs 60+ year old manager literally just tried to fight Hurdle a week or two ago. I think the problem is on the Pirates side of the field.
Yes Hanawi. Hurdle is the problem.
Clint Hurdle is the embarrassment
In a vacuum, extending players should have nothing to do w this years trade. Unless it happens before the trade
But I don’t think this trade is as bad as people are making it. I love Bauer. He saves the bullpen by throwing so many innings.
And I love Puig, he is def exciting and fun to watch. But he is a train wreck waiting to happen on a nightly basis
This trade will be compared for Reds fans with the Stroman deal, fair or not. The Reds may have gotten a better pitcher but they gave up more than what the Blue Jays got for Stroman.
I’m not even sure Bauer is better than Stroman. Other than last year when Bauer looked like one of the top 5 pitchers in the game, Stroman’s numbers have been better overall.
If Bauer leaves after 2020, they tender him and get back the supplemental 1st round pick that Trammel was if they lose Bauer to FA.
Scott Moss?? Really?? Another in a long list of Reds pitching prospects. Outside of Garret and Boxberger, how many top notch home grown pitchers have we drafted and panned out?? Come on people. You want the Jocketty era back? No risk no reward. Not counting Cueto, Chapman and Iglesias as they weren’t drafted.
Huh? Trading away prospects is basically the Jocketty era all over again.
Except a qualifying pick in late first round won’t be a player like Trammell. That was very lucky, and Trammell was a top 15 player and high ceiling toolsy high schooler who dropped for the high over slot bonus. But even Reds 5th pick overall India is 95th prospect right now, so don’t expect a lot from comp of qualifying pick.. even if overslot.
Do not like the trade.
Gave up way to much for 1 year of him.
So in fact we gave up Josah, Jetter and Trammel + for 1 year. Seems a bit much.
I like it. It is the modern equivalent of acquiring Tom Seaver in 1977. Now Seaver was a far superior P of course. Reds gave up best SP and reigning ROY Pat Zachry, utility INF Doug Flynn (blocked by Morgan and Concepcion in Reds lineup), Reds #1 MiLB prospect OF Steve Henderson, and quality MiLB prospect OF Dan Norman for Seaver.
Puig, Trammell, and Moss for Bauer is modern equivalent. Contracts and free agency make it different than 1970s.
Packaging Puig was the right move for 2019. Makes room for Aquino, Ervin, and Van Meter.
Adding Bauer makes a run in 2019 a little more likely, but it’s a very long shot.
Castillo
Gray
Bauer
Wood
Roark
That is a GREAT rotation.
Mahle and Disco to the pen.
Of course maybe Roark or Wood are traded yet to restock the farm.
Trammell’s star has been fading a bit but he’s still got a lot of promise. I just am not sold on the power showing up to the extent that it makes sense in LF. Arguments will be made that he was sold low, but he may yet fall further.
So much for Roark throwing a gem and waking up to a Garrett, Roark blockbuster that would’ve brought some serious young talent to an org desperate for it. Not a fan of this trade right now. Wood(on a QO), Castillo, and Gray are nice start to a pretty good rotation. Trammell may be struggling but I hate for them to give up so much potential for a short term acquisition. I thought they might buy if they could get a steal on someone with control but man, at this point in time, it looks like a clear overpay.
Wood takes the QO.
More then he will make as a bridge contract.
This can also be seen as a statement that Senzel is cemented as their center fielder. I was anticipating a move back to 2b after this year, but the Reds May have just traded away their best long term CF prospect.
If VanMeter is for real, then he slots in at 2B with Senzel still in CF
We desperately need him to be for real
I’d like to think he is for real. It’s a little concerning that he was rated high as a prospect throughout his time in the minors though.
Reds could prob take Bauer and flip him to yanks for Garcia and Frazier
Or kick tires of dodgers
Have you watched Frazier play outfield? It’s not pretty and by that I mean maybe worse than Adam Dunn not pretty.
Ok. Replace Frazier. The parts don’t matter. Just giving an example of they may think they can resell Bauer for something better than they thought Trammell was worth
Have you watched Winker play outfield?
I get your point about Winker not being great in the outfield, but do you want them to play together in that outfield?
On another site I read that Joe Girardi speculates that the Reds were going to flip Bauer.
Guess I’ll wait until August 1 to make final judgement.
This is a great deal! Congrats are in order for both San Diego and Cleveland..
Wed play a game as children whwre we would put dog poop in a bag place it on a neighbors porch and then set it on fire. wed ring the doorbell and runaway.
Somehow this feels like Cleveland leaving the burning dog dooh and the Reds answering the door smashing their foot into the pile of dung.
Does this even make us better this year?
I thought the reds might make a trade like this but i was thinking more likely be boyd of robbie ray!
I like Puig but he is a Free Agent in 2 months. They have the same possibility to bring him back next year as they did before the trade. So they give up a AA pitcher and outfielder, both of whom are performing in a very pedestrian manner, plus a two month rental player for a potential Cy Young winner. Good for Cleveland for making a good trade with San Diego but that part has nothing to do with the Reds. What it does say is two organizations thought they got more value without Trammel than they had with him.
Bauer is not a potential Cy Young winner. He had a great year last year but that is the outlier among his seasons. He’s not as good as Gray.
Even if one doesn’t believe in Trammell, top 30 prospects in baseball are the most valuable commodity. No one is trading them right now.
Bauer was sixth in the Cy Young voting last year, so how exactly is he not a potential Cy Young winner?
As for Bauer vs Gray, they’re numbers over their careers are quite similar. Difference is that Gray had much more early success, while Bauer has slowly had greater and greater results. They’re both legit #2’s, and we’re fortunate to have both of them.
Hanawi, Bauer is beast. I get if your not happy with the team control aspect but they got a stud. He limits hits and gets K’s w/o a ton of walks..Which sounds like a legit TOR arm to me. Bauer>>Stroman. FWAR since 2017- Bauer 11.3 vs Stroman’s 7.5. This year in which Stroman has a better ERA, Bauer 2.7 vs 2.9—2019 xFIP Stroman 4.29 vs Bauer 4.07.
Obviously two teams are trading them now.
After taking a minute and really thinking about it, Im coming around to where you are MK. As much talent as Trammell has, he is far from a sure thing. Winker and Senzel are 2/3rds of an OF locked down for a good while. GABP is a unique selling point to OF’ers looking to bounce back or play on a 1 year deal to re-set their value.
VanMeter, perhaps the most slept on prospect in my decade + following this team closely(not a jab at Doug by any means, he was on no ones radar), needs to play everyday to see what they have in him. Between him, Ervin, and Dietrich(LF Winker in RF) the offense shouldn’t fade much this season, if at all(defense is another story).
Move Jose Iglesies if possible, but it might be hard to move a guy whose hit under a .600 ops the past 2 months. Peraza should play everyday, with or w/o Iglesies on the roster, his early year struggles seem to be behind him and a vote of confidence would go a long way.
Bauer is a legit TOR arm and yeah I do wish there was more team control but the rest of the season should be interesting. 7.5 back in the division and 6.5 out in the wild card is a lot of ground to make up but they are hot streak away from being right back in it. Still lots of baseball to be played, and granted, the Reds did themselves no favors brawling with a AAAA team.
I don’t think the Reds are done. I think you could see them flip Bauer to Mets for Thor, maybe to Dodgers with Winker for Verdugo? R.Iglesias for some good minor league prospects call up Kuhnel. Maybe Bauer to Atlanta for Ender or keep Bauer and trade Iglesias R. Roark Lots of options here in play
I expect.Bauer to stay, Reds front offi e, is looking at.current team, positive run differential and telling ownership they feel they are close to being serious contender in 2020.. you add a legit innings horse, who leads AL in innings pitched to your rotation, a pitcher like that will save your bullpen and not have it deteriorate the way Reds pullben fell apart in 2nd half.. key though to contend for next year is too add additional major league players… Keep Wood, add relief pitching and make move for Mike Stanton! Yankees looking to move Stanton contract in off season but Stanton would need to agree to deal… Stanton in GASP for 81 games is scary…. I am hopeful Eeds go all in for 2020 but concerned Bell would be a huge liability to make a run….
Reds would never pay for Stanton. Nor should they
And his name is Giancarlo
!New thought!
The Reds want Bauer
BECAUSE of his plan to live on 1 year deals.
I’ve always heard people say that most starting pitchers don’t make their long term/big money contracts worth it by the time it runs up.
Maybe the Reds think it’s better to BUY a starter each year as long as they are the highest bidder (which we have room for the next couple years). If he doesn’t perform or we have a prospect that’s kicking down the door, just don’t sign him the next year and maybe trade him by the deadline.
What if they have an equation that places a value on that situation that combined with the guaranteed time remaining = trammel service years?
I’m actually not sold on this, but this thread was getting boring with the same opinions over and over.
His wanting to do only one year contracts is no advantage at all for the Reds. Beginning in 2021 and beyond, they’ll be competing for him with the Yankees, Dodgers and all the other money teams. Where do you think he ends up in that scenario?
The Dodgers and Yankees have their max team salary number just like the Reds. It’s the difference between their commitments and that number that matters. And the Reds for the next couple years have more room. So I think he can end up with the Reds in that scenario. If they want him.
In year one (2021) the Reds would seem to have a big advantage. If Bauer sticks to his promise to only do one year deals, how many teams are going to give up comp in the draft for just one year of a player? Unless he somehow loves Cincinnati or DJ or some such, he would then be most likely to sign with a big payroll team.
I don’t see it as a light trade at all. I think it was a good trade for the reds. The reds had intentions of trading Puig down the road when they got him to begin with.
Taylor Trammel has not looked good at all . He is only batting .216 against right handers. That is a big red flag to me. Given that Trammel is a left handed hitter.
Scott Moss might be a Tanner Roark like success down the road around 5 years from now. There is more Roark’s on the tree than there is Bauers and thats only if Moss can have that kind of success ?
Who knows maybe the reds can sign Puig next year if they want him. The reds are going to have around 50 mill next year to spend and Puig likes his hitting coach. So who knows ? I am ok if they don’t resign him.
The Reds traded far more for Latos than they did for Bauer
Maybe i shouldn’t use the word or words ”who knows”. Maybe ”possibly” is a better word.
As for Trammell replacements in the pecking order of OF’s, don’t overlook Narciso Crook, or O’Grady either for that matter. Crook is also very athletic, tho not in Trammell s league. But he’s at AAA and playing well. With Senzel in CF, corner OF candidates going forward are Winker, Ervin, VanMeter, Aquino, Crook, O’Grady, Longhi, then Siri, Fairchild, Freidl, and others at A and AA. Siani gets time to develop.
I was hoping, I’d wake up this morning and the reds would have flipped Bauer Ouch I’d settle for hearing we are getting a bigger return. What was the reds upper management thinking. David Bell is an embarrassment to the Red. What was upper management thinking . When you hire the son of an owner to be your GM , President of Operations ( probably got a raise with the new title) The reds fan deserve better than this.
What did Bell do so bad.He got ejected protecting his star right fielder from getting ejected. Then stood with his players in the big fight, and frankly it is time someone cleans Hurdles clock.His comments after the game were right on about umpires role in the fray.
As far as game management everyone cried for a Manager with an analytics approach. Well you got one and this is what it looks like.
Hear hear MK. JB, an embarrassment? C’mon. The Reds finally have a FO and a manager that are both pulling in the same direction. Bell seems to be very involved in FO decisions, unlike the Reds’ managers of yesteryear (or Art Howe in Moneyball). I’m more than happy with the coaching hires last off season, particularly with stealing the pitching coach from the Brewers.
Bell is the first Reds manager, heck, he’s the first MLB manager, to get second guessed by the fans. Some of those fans might want to remember that Bell is a third generation MLBr, whose forgotten more baseball knowledge than most of us will ever have.
I, for one, appreciate Bell’s fire in the belly.
I think it was a good trade, a proven Major League starting pitcher for an outfielder and two prospects. The Reds gave up Cueto for two great prospects and another pretty good one, the Reds haven’t anything to show for it. Outfielders are a dime a dozen, not so with MLB Starting Pitchers.
I think I would rather have 5.5 years of Franmil Reyes and 6.5 years of Logan Allen rather than 1.5 years of Trevor Bauer.
Move Reyes over to LF to minimize the bad defense, and see his 27 HR playing half his games at Petco turn into 35+ HR playing half his games at GABP.
The Reds are going to be downright awful after 2020 with zero prospects now anywhere near ready to help. Only way this turns out well is if the Reds magically win a WS in 2020, or if they are terrible in 2020 but Bauer is amazing and they trade him at the deadline for a king’s ransom.
Everyone take on here about years of service like they have to pay the bill personally. I’ll take one winning season please.
I’ll take five winning seasons by gathering talent that is controllable long term rather than another 1-off year attempt, please.
We’d all love that but I haven’t seen much evidence that we can do it. You keep holding out hope.
I suspect the reds feel they can sign puig in the off season. He won’t cost much. I think roark is traded on wednesday , and wood re-signs as he sees a very strong rotation taking shape. I see that for a one year deal. I also see the closer traded today as well. They could trade Roark and iggy to they yanks for Frazier and someone else. Scooter to the dodgers? Winker could be out as well. We need productive bats.
Stay Tuned
I can see the possibility of Puig coming back. Maybe they met and talked about it as a possibility. But then again we do have a slew of outfielders right now.
I like the Trade. We get a TOR starting pitcher for next year for A very good prospect and a outfielder who was a FA after this year. While I liked Puig the short time he was here I would not lock him up long term. Not a guy I trust to give lots of years and big dollars to especially considering we have some young outfielders Ervin, Winker and possibly JVM and Aquino ready to be given regular at bats. Trammel is tough to part with but he is a LF at best and his power has fallen off a cliff. If he was a CF I would be more concerned about his departure. With a rotation next year of Bauer, Castillo, Gray and Disco and a back end bull pen of Lorenzen, Iggy and Garrett I like the pitching. Grabbing a bat to play in GABP is easier then finding pitching on the open market. Shore up the offense and I really think we have a legitimate chance to compete next year.
That’s right, it’s been pretty clear that in GABP we have to trade for a pitcher or develop one. Signing big names isn’t going to happen. Hitters on the other hand should be salivating to have that as their home park.
If Reds were going to move Trammell, it needed to be for Yelich.
Buy high on Bauer (inexplicably), sell low on Trammell. Puig essentially a salary dump.
Man, it is hard understanding this on any level.
Positives, hope to see Phil Ervin in RF everyday. See if he and Van Meter are legit everyday players. Figure out which pitchers out out options in 2020 are going to stick: Stephenson, Reed, Romano, Sims.
Hope Reds move Roark and/or Wood today. I get that you dont acquire Bauer, in theory, to flip him. But maybe thats how this all ends up making sense for Reds. Bauer to Yankees for Frazier, plus? Bauer to Red Sox for Benintendi? Has to be something we are missing.
We wouldn’t have gotten Yelich without including Senzel, Trammell would have been the 2nd or 3rd piece in that potential deal.
Yet another example of this front office wasting value. They love to not trade guys when they have high value but wait until they lose it (Trammell would have been worth way more last year). Even if you need to get Bauer (which you don’t) why sell low on your best prospect?
I don’t seem to recall you demanding that they trade Trammell last year. However, maybe your crystal ball is better than the Reds’ and you knew that Trammell was going to have a bad year.
And what if this bad year is just the tip of the iceberg? Then the Reds acted at precisely the right time.
I am not sure that it is a ‘sell low’. San Diego paid a lot. Puig was almost without value as a rental with an average wRC+ and some teams that didn’t want his baggage (fair or unfair). Moss has very low value. The Reds have plenty of LF options, and I like Senzel in center better than Taylor.
The real trade was Trammell for Reyes and Logan Allen from the Padres That is what Trammells current value is. Not sure if that is buying high or selling low. Looks like the Padres valued him quite a bit.
Keep in mind the deadline market for solid SP is always strong. Hard to say how many other teams wanted Bauer and what kind of offers the Reds had to beat.
There is no guarantee that Puig was staying or leaving as a FA . Reds decided that having Bauer for a full season was better than watching puig walk as a FA and getting nothing.
If this is the only trade they make, its a bad trade, if they can flip Gennett, Roark, Double D, Iglesis, or other bp arms to restock the farm a little it can be ok. It certainly gives the Reds a chance to see if Aquino or Van Meter can produce. The Reds have “no name” guys that have produced in a big way in the minors this year, if they can produce it works out. But prospect ranking does mean something:
“Overall, 61 percent of all-stars from 2009-18 were Top 100 Prospects—68 percent of hitters and 54 percent of pitchers.
We also found that 72 percent (87 of 121) of multiple-time all-star position players over the past 10 seasons were once Top 100 prospects. Sixty-five percent (52 of 80) of multiple-time all-star pitchers over that same time frame were Top 100 prospects.”-Baseball America
For the emphasis placed on the top 100 those results seem a little surprisingly low. I will have to consider that more though, thanks!
Conversely, what percentage of Top 100 prospects never reach MLB?
And what percentage become platoon players or BP fodder?
Just got up and on here. Haven’t read anything but Doug’s story on the trade.
My two cents:
I like the trade. The Reds are looking to do something in 2020, which was always sort of the target year anyway, right? I mean, this offseason’s moves were to get the Reds to be more competitive. Check, they did that. Bauer is a difference maker on the mound, IMO, and now the Reds have a top three that’s hard to rival in the central.
This winter when names were mentioned for Kluber, Bauer, Syndegaard, etc it was often something like Senzel and Raisel Iglesias plus for one of those guys. Or two top 5 guys and a top 10 guy. Trammell, India, Greene, and Santillan were also being grouped in some fashion to form a hypothetical return worthy of a TOR pitcher. I realize there is less control over him now that in the winter, but again, anything they bought over the offseason wasn’t likely to have pushed them over the mark to contender status anyway. And if it was going to, then they have two + months this season without an insurmountable deficit to show they’re legit.
Plus Trammell’s stock has dropped. He’s dropped in the rankings and struggled with performance in AA. He’s been relegated to LF at this point. The Reds have several LF options ready now in Winker, Ervin, and VanMeter and all are performing pretty well. They’ll still be cheap and controllable for a few more seasons. Trammell was fairly expendable as a prospect due to the Reds not playing him in CF and having other viable OF prospects/young players.
If the price in the offseason for a guy like Bauer was Trammell + at least another top 10, if not another top 5. And the price for 4 months less of Bauer is a slightly less heralded Trammell, Puig (who may have left for nothing in FA), and Moss (a guy I do like) who hasn’t even been cracking Doug’s top 25 lists then I don’t what’s to be upset about when it seems a lot of people were willing to have done a version of this deal over winter.
Nice take Nate
I feel about this trade sort of the same way I felt about the Reds 1st selection in the draft this year; it wasn’t what I would have done but I have no real issue with it either.
Player A 19 WAR 70-61 3.66 ERA
Player B 16 WAR 68-55 3.92 ERA
A:Roark
B: Bauer
@james
I like to look at the last three years
Roark era+ 96,97 and 108
Bauer: 109,198 and 125
You beat me to it. Bauer light years ahead of Roarke.
The only way this makes sense is if Reds knew they could extend Bauer after 2020 which does. It seem to be the case.
*not*
If Bauer sticks to his plan to only sign one year deals, the Reds likelihood of retaining him on a QO in 2021 would seem pretty good to me. If the receiving team has to give up comp to sign him – and only get him for one year, their appetite will be significantly lower. Him leaving for 202 could certainly still happen, but it seems that the chance of this being a 2.5 year scenario is a bit higher than normal with a player of his caliber.
wow, the Padres really wanted Trammell. Have to wonder why we didn’t work a deal with the Pads this season or last. The biggest shock in this trade is how much Cleveland got in return. Their GM must have been snickering to himself all along. “Hey Cincy, I need Scott Moss too.” They got two ML starting OF each hitting 20 plus homers this season in addition to bullpen help. I thought next year would be a rebuilding season but now the pressure is on to contend but there are too many holes IMO.
Ok, lets try to be optimistic about this. Obviously, the Padres valued Trammell a lot more than the Reds did.
There is one reason that I am willing to give this a chance and that one reason is not being mentioned enough. I really believe in Derek Johnson as a pitching coach. I like the idea of giving him Bauer for the rest of this season and the offseason to get established. Also, maybe a switch to the NL will even benefit Bauer.
As much as I loved Puig, it was obvious that the Indians wanted young prospects and the Reds were not willing to do that past Trammell and I am at least grateful for that. It wasn’t long ago that Billy Hamilton and Robert Stephenson were out top prospects. The real question is the next move. Where do we go from here, knowing that we have Castillo, Bauer, and Gray at the top of the rotation.
The only way this makes sense is if the Reds go all in in 2020 and “get the pitching” moves to “get the division title”. This trade doesn’t get that done, which I’m suspecting means the off-season is going to be pretty eventful. The trade does solidify what should be a very good starting pitching staff, which is a good place to start an all-in strategy.
I hope they call up Aquino and play him regularly for the remainder of the year.
Regardless, I agree with Doug’s points and don’t think they got enough value for Trammell.
I’d say it’s pretty clear that the Reds don’t view Trammell as a CF. 5.1 innings in CF this year. Even with defensive stalwart Jose Siri in the same outfield, you make time for a prospect like Trammell if you think he has a possible future in CF. Siri could have easily played some in RF to get Trammell reps in CF.
This trade also means more playing time for Ervin and VanMeter who have been hitting well this season, and now we’ll get a better idea of what we have here going into next season.
Bauer is uber talented and i’m excited to see what Derek Johnson can do working with him after the successes he has had so far with Castillo/Gray/Roark. Ideally i’d like to see Bauer extended through his age 31 or 32 season, but if not I still think it’s worth the risk. This is what the Reds have to do to acquire pitching, and I think it’s a better strategy than throwing money at the Eric Milton’s of the world.
I think Roark can be resigned in the offseason on a 1 or 2 year deal given his age and the Reds can have a strong rotation next year of Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Roark, and Disco, with Lodolo maybe starting the year in AA. The Reds also have the bankroll opening up next year to make another big move, be it a lock down reliever, yet another starter, or a big bat to fill a hole.
Completely agree with how the Reds view Trammell and have mentioned that a few times this season. Friedl, Fairchild, and Siri have all seen more time in CF than Trammell at AA. If the minors are for development then the Reds had signaled Trammell was not being developed for CF.
Well said. I hope Trammell does well in San Diego, but the fact that the Reds have continually played him in LF says a ton. But as a LF, his future value is decreased, particularly for the Reds that have many candidates to man LF. In fact, a Winker/Ervin platoon could be very hard to top. Trammell may very well reach his potential, but as of today, its hard to see how he fits with the Reds over the next few years. Moss has performed well, but his ceiling is limited–I can’t imagine holding onto a prospect of his caliber an forgoing a legit TOR starting pitcher.
The Reds added a durable, TOR pitcher for the remainder of this year and next year. A top 3 of Castillo, Bauer and Gray can compete with any other team. Disco and Mahle are excellent for the #4 and #5 slots. In fact, Mahle has options remaining if the Reds can retain Wood. A key question for 2020 has been answered and I like the answer. I didn’t see this coming, but I think the Reds will benefit from this trade.
Here’s how I see it.
1). The Reds are tired of losIng and plan to go for it next year.
2). They have a lot of free agents, which means they will have holes to fill, but also the payroll space to do so.
3). They know that it will be extremely difficult to attract FA pitchers to GABP.
4). So, they grab a pitcher now….and can now make the case to FA hitters that they have a top rotation that can make a serious run to the playoffs.
Good analysis. Developing pitching is less predictable and therefore more difficult to project from draft to big leagues, and given the reputation of GABP, FA pitchers will more often prefer to pitch elsewhere (the Reds made a better offer to JA Happ but he chose the Yankees this last winter).
For those lamenting the price of Trammell …
Wasn’t long ago that Bob Steve was our top prospect. All we heard about was how filthy his stuff was.
Would you trade Bob Steve, and his six years of control, for Bauer?
I’m as guilty as anyone for overvaluing the Reds’ prospects. I love perusing the top 30 prospect lists, and admiring all of the shiny toys in the Reds’ closet. In the end though, they are just prospects. Most will never have an impact in the Major Leagues.
Pitchers and position players are a little bit different in how you can predict their production. Still this is a good point and well taken.
Word.
I hate losing Trammel and the reds will have a big hole in their 2021 pitching staff when Bauer leaves. But I really liked Scott Moss. He may not have outstanding stuff but he has always won. Winning is not an important stat anymore. But I like a winning pitcher and Moss will be a winning pitcher wherever he pitches.
So which pitcher goes to the minors, Mahle or Sims? With 14 pitchers they have a three man bench (one being back-up catcher) and at least Casalli will need a spot but if not him somebody soon.
The Reds just might have an ace in the hole for their bullpen by the name of Joel Kuhnel depending on how he can pitch in the big leagues. If, BIG IF, he becomes a legit closer that could free up trading Iglesias, something I’m not opposed to especially if Iglesias finishes off the season nice and strong to become a strong trade piece in the off season..
Thoughts on how this will affect O’Grady and Aquino who imo have earned a shot to prove themselves?
The reds have money to spend this offseason and they just made a hole in the outfield. They can attract hitters way easier than pitchers, so if I had to guess, they may not get a better shot.
I’ll put this in the regular thread here: it occurs to me that if Bauer is not open to an extension with the Reds, his desire for one-year deals will work against him for the first year when he is up against a QO, where the signing team will have to give up comp draft value for only one year of control.
Net for Reds: added premier SP Trevor Bauer. And MiLB OF prospect Jameson Hannah.
Gave up high MLB quality RF Yasiel Puig. MLB capable SP Tanner Roark. #1 MiLB OF prospect Taylor Trammell. And decent MiLB prospect LHP (I forget his first name) Moss.
Put that all together and you get Puig and Roark for Bauer. Advantage Reds in 2020.
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