MLB Pipeline, the prospect arm of MLB.com, released their Top 100 Prospect list on Thursday night. The Cincinnati Reds had a solid showing on the list as they landed four players in the Top 100.
Shortstop Elly De La Cruz was the highest rated Reds player on the list. The infielder came in at #10 overall on the list after another huge season that saw him hit .304/.359/.586 with 31 doubles, 9 triples, 28 home runs, and 47 stolen bases while splitting his season between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga. Cincinnati added him to the 40-man roster in November, so he’ll be in big league camp in a few weeks out in Goodyear.
Not much farther down the list is Noelvi Marte. The shortstop who was acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline in a deal for Luis Castillo came in at #29 overall. He spent his entire season in High-A, but did so with two different teams. With the Mariners he was in Everett, and after the trade he joined Dayton. Between his two stops in the minors this season he hit .279/.371/.458 with 23 doubles, 19 home runs, and 23 steals. Like De La Cruz, Marte was added to the 40-man roster in November and will be in big league camp next month.
The other shortstop acquired by the Reds in the Luis Castillo trade with Seattle, Edwin Arroyo, also found himself in the top 50. The recently turned 19-year-old came in at #44 overall. For the most part he spent his season in Single-A with two teams, but did see action in two games directly after he was acquired by the Reds out in Goodyear with their complex team. Overall he hit .293/.366/.480 with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 14 home runs, and 27 stolen bases last season.
Cincinnati’s fourth prospect to make the list was Cam Collier. The 2022 1st round pick (18th overall) by the Reds comes in at #69 on the list. In what would have been his junior year of high school in 2022, Collier was playing at Chipola Junior College and hit .333/.419/.537. After the draft he spent nine games playing for the Arizona Complex League Reds, and while the sample size of games was small, he made his presence known. Over his 35 plate appearances he hit .370/.514/.630 and walked more than he struck out.
These same four players also made the Baseball America Top 100 list last week, but Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, and Cam Collier all ranked higher on the MLB Pipeline list. Elly De La Cruz came in at #8 on the Baseball America list.
Marte is the oldest of the four. All the various prospect lists aside, and while EDLC is rated 60 FV, the other 3 are 50s. Is there any substantive reason to suspect that Marte is the most likely to flame out?
Marte turned 21 in October, and he is 3 months older than Elly De La Cruz.
Marte was sent to Arizona last fall to learn third base. He’d already had 520 PAs at age 20 in the regular season. His BABIP in Arizona was .218; it had been .310 in A+. His BB/SO stats were good at all three places he played.
Exactly. By all reports, Marte was gassed by Arizona.
He may not be the absolute beast that EDLC is, but he’s still going to stick on the left side of the infield and hit for power.
Other than to be needlessly negative, I don’t see a reason no. He’s still being rated as a top 50 prospect, it’s high praise despite his slight fall in the rankings compared to last year. Descent defense/power bat and no injury history, why are we looking for reasons he’ll flame out?
Not really negative on him, just less optimistic on him than the other three. And I don’t have a good reason. That’s what I was looking for. Why am I thinking that? Don’t know. Wish I did.
Fair enough, I think pretty much any prospect carries some bust potential. His K% isnt outrageous, he takes walks, and has power so I’ve seen no reason yet to be skeptical of him. If there are 3 other guys in the system you like better than that type of profile I’d say the system was in good shape.
In fact, of the four I’m most worried about EDLC and his 30% K rate. I think his other tools more than make up for it however.
Yep, still too high but I still remember Schmidt SO a bunch at 20
Well sure, to use a special case. Schmidt was also very young and spent almost no time in the minors.
Law’s list is out today with EDLC & Collier in the top 20. Marte dropped out of the top 20 all the way down to 49.
MLB Pipeline had Marte, Arroyo, and Collier as 55 prospects. Yes EDLC was the only 60 prospect for the Reds, but there were only 15 MLB Pipeline prospects who rated as a 60.
The Reds were well represented on this list.
That list is garbage. Volpe over EDC?
Yankees over Reds?
NY Hype over everyone else. Typical.
Kinda suprised Steer did not crack either of those lists. He’s still eligible, should have been somewhere 75-100 in my view.
Have to imagine the reds have 5-6 in the next 100 which is why the farm system is so highly regarded right now.
McLain
Steer
Phillips
CES
Petty
Jorge
Even Abbott
Hope I’m wrong but I really don’t know what Steer brings to the table. He had a great first game for Reds which created some hype. Defensively he is looked upon as a guy who has played many positions which says he hasn’t been good enough at any one to secure that spot. Not a good or even average base stealer as soon by minor league stats. Average power. Slightly above average hit tool.
You’re gonna make Brad Pitt point at Jonah Hill again…
… we’re not looking at you to get on base only to be thrown out at second base.
Scottie Hatteberg as best supporting actor!
I think Steer ends up ( probably not this season ) hitting 20 homers, 20 doubles, and hitting in the neighborhood of 270.
So in my mind seeing this list and the Baseball America list just confirms that Fangraphs list was truly insane, right? or am I missing something. Did Doug ever address the fangraphs ratings? I couldn’t find it if he did.
Yes, the Fangraphs list was truly insane. The trend I have sort of noticed is they look for ways the highly regarded players may fail, and they look for ways the less highly regarded players might succeed. Last year you had Ashcraft listed at #17 on the Reds list as a single inning relief pitcher, and Allan Cerda at #5 as a player with great tools with some contact issues.
This year they are higher than the consensus on Steer/McLain/Siani as likely ML role-players, and lower on Marte and Encarnacion-Strand where they site Marte as making weak contact and CES being weak to breaking balls.
I like that the fangraphs list took some risks. All the rest of the lists read pretty much the same just slight differences, which gets boring.
While I haven’t always said it, I’ve probably been saying it for at least a decade now: Pay far less attention to the number next to the name and pay far more attention to the words under “Scouting Report”.
I think by the end of the year, maybe even the mid season update, the Reds will find more players on this list. The only one who may graduate is de la Cruz, but there’s no guarantee he plays in Cincinnati this year. As listed above, lots of dudes could find their way. Phillips, Abbott, Petty. Jorge, McLain, Encarnacion-Strand. Brandon Williamson was a former 100 that could find his groove.
I expect this is also the Boyle year – either he puts it together and rockets up the lists, or he begins the transition to the bullpen and remains in the 100-400 range. His first 8-12 starts in AA will be very telling.
Boyle seems like an all or nothing type – the opposite of Steer, who seems an unlikely all-star but a very useful type – the kind of player the Rays and Giants find very valuable.
I recall someone (Doug?) making the comment that outside of the very top prospects, there’s not a lot of difference between, say, number 33 and number 77. I wonder if the Reds depth is a bit hidden here since I suspect they also have quite a few players on the 100-200 list. How long has it been since they had a dozen or so of the top 200 prospects? That may be the case this year.
I made a comment about it, and then JJ Cooper of Baseball America actually wrote about it and how right I was. https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/1618303642498629632
Thanks, and that article is an excellent perspective. Really shows that while you can buy a superstar, filling 10-15 roster spots is an organization skill is revealed by player development outside the top 500.
The only thing about last summer’s trades that gave me pause was the Tyler Mahle trade to the Twins. It felt a little like more of a limited up side major league ready trade than a high end young return.
I would rather the Reds have gotten Brooks Lee (as a PTBNL) and Emmanuel Rodriquez than Steer and Strand as the center pieces. Anyone agree?
But, still, both CES and Steer are very decent prospects. Better than Schebler, etcs.
Agree. It just feels a little more like a Walt Jocketty trade than a Nick Krall trade.
Don’t forget that they were trading a pitcher (Mahle) who had some shoulder problems. Mahle only had 16 IP for the Twins.
I agree the return was to be limited. And, we don’t know how it will work out. To me, it felt different than the others.