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    Edwin Arroyo (Photo: Doug Gray)
    Photo: Doug Gray

    Cincinnati Reds #3 Prospect: Edwin Arroyo – SS

    Doug Gray 22

    When Cincinnati traded for Edwin Arroyo in 2022 at the trade deadline he was just one of several players – albeit a very good one – in the deal. Two of the four players in that deal have already reached the big leagues (Noelvi Marte, Levi Stoudt), but at the time of the deal Arroyo was just 18-years-old and still in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

    This article was first sent out to those who support the site over on Patreon. Early access is one of the perks that you could get be joining up as a Patron and supporting the work done here at RedsMinorLeagues.com.

    When the 2023 season began the Reds sent Edwin Arroyo out to join the Dayton Dragons in High-A’s Midwest League. The season got out to a bit of a slow start for Arroyo as he hit .257/.316/.400 in the first nine games of the year, but that also included him missing 10 days in the middle of that time. But he went into a big slump in the two weeks that followed that, going 3-43 (.070) with just one walk. That left him with an OPS of just .476 through the first 20 games of his season.

    He picked things up a little bit after that, posting a .705 OPS in the final 17 games of May. But he really picked things up when June rolled around. He found consistency from that point forward, posting an OPS between .817 and .862 over the next three months for Dayton. His walk rate improved and his strikeout rate dropped off, too.

    When the Dayton regular season came to an end, the Reds sent Arroyo up to Double-A to join Chattanooga for the final week of the season. He played in four games that week before the playoffs began. He hit .320 with the Lookouts between that final week of the regular season and the playoffs.

    For all 2023 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

    Edwin Arroyo Scouting Report

    Position: Shortstop | B/T: S/R

    Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 175 lbs. | Acquired: Trade (Mariners, 2022), 2nd Round (2021 Draft) | Born: August 25, 2003

    Hitting | He has an above-average hit tool, but he projects as a better hitter for average from the left side than he does from the right side.

    Power | He has average to slightly above-average raw power.

    Speed | Arroyo shows above-average speed.

    Defense | He has plus defense at a premium position.

    Arm | He has an above-average arm.

    Before the draft the scouting report on Edwin Arroyo was that he was far better with his glove than he was with his bat. It’s possible that there was just a lot of emphasis on how good his defense was, but since becoming a professional he’s hit quite well and that’s before you adjust for the fact that he’s been incredibly young for the level he’s been playing at.

    With that said, the scouting report still begins with his defense. He’s a plus defender who can be a difference at shortstop. Arroyo can make all of the plays, showing off range, athleticism, great hands, and arm strength.

    His bat isn’t quite as good as his glove is, but that’s more about just how good his defense actually is. At the plate he’s got a chance to hit for both average and for power. While neither of those appear to be elite skills for him in the future, he has a chance to be one of the better hitting shortstops in the future.

    With just over a week’s worth of time in the upper levels, Arroyo is still going to have to prove that he can keep hitting against more advanced pitching. He’ll be 20-years-old for almost all of the 2024 season, but with a strong year he could be knocking on the door of the big leagues before the season comes to an end.

    Video

    Edwin Arroyo Spray Charts

    As a left-handed hitter

    As a right-handed hitter

    Interesting Stat on Edwin Arroyo

    His 1.000 isolated power to the pull side as a right-handed hitter was the highest mark among the Reds top 25 prospects. Only one other prospect in the top 25 even topped the .900 mark.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    22 Responses

    3. I looked at these stats and one thing jumped out at me. Per your data Arroyo hit 0.038 on balls in play that did not leave the infield. I would expect about a BA in the range of .100 – .150. Marte for example had a .126 BA on balls that did not leave the IF (per your data). That got me curious.

      You have Arroyo with 75 singles. Fangraphs has 72.
      You have Arroyo with 27 doubles. Fangraphs has 28.
      You have Arroyo with 12 HR. Fangraphs has 13.

      You have Arroyo with 385 BIP + HR. Fangraphs has 380.

      You have similar discrepancies with Marte.

      Am I missing something here? I am a bit confused here.

      1. I looked at Arroyo again – one double was lost in translation because of the way I have the data translation set up. Ground rule doubles aren’t worded the same way as non-ground rule doubles and that caused the missing double issue. That also explains the missing home run – it was an inside the park homer and I didn’t make the adjustment in the spray chart. One of those homers was showing up as a single, so the new numbers get us to 74 singles. The difference between that and FG is that my spray charts are including playoffs.

        I did not check Marte’s numbers yet but I would imagine it’s a similar issue with a ground rule double or something.

        I will also note that every so often a game begins and then is stopped by rain and never resumed and results in a “no game”, so the stats don’t count from that game. I still use that data in the spray charts. So that could also explain some small ball in play differences.

    4. Arroyo will possibly be the player that forces the club to move on from India, the middle infield trifecta of McLain/Elly/Arroyo being superior to India, MCLain and Elly.

      His defense is quite good and IMO often electric, very comparable to Barrero at his best.

      Like Elly, he’s a switch hitter, and mastered Hi-A at a very young age.

      He may not be a burner but I’d say he uses his speed really well.

      And what I saw of him this year at Dayton, I’d say he is commendable in the way he carries himself.

      A productive year at AA and he’ll challenge for a role in 2025, and then will make India more moveable, likely at the trade deadline.

      And, as I demonstrated with my prognostication around Roa, India will be traded by the end of the day and clear the path to GABP for someone I’m sure. I digress.
      .
      As I’ve made the case for before, there are plenty of at bats for three middle infielders given injuries, the DH etc. that would be true with Arroyo in the mix as well.

        1. Nope. But highly unlikely.

          It’d more likely require sweeteners for both clubs. Such as, you take our slightly struggling vet for your slightly struggling vet, and we exchange high end prospects. Given both teams need pitching, that’s where it falls apart, ie we’re not trading Phillips for Teal and they’re not trading a solid arm arm for India.

          I’d actually root for India hitting in Fenway. He’d wear out the Green Monster as well as that short right field. CF not so much.

        2. What about India and RP (Gibaut, Sims) for Teel. Maybe throw in a catcher such as Logan Tanner or Cade Hunter. Possibly a Levi Stoudt.

        3. Agree with Dave on this one – you can keep adding but you still get don’t get to the needs. Perhaps start with the India/Verdugo match, which fits both teams, and add from there – Teel from the Sox, many of those Stock notes from the Reds.

          Make it a 3 for 5 deal.

        4. Stock, I’m guessing we’d need to add a high end prospect or young starter to offset Teel, who had an absolutely fantastic debut and bumped up in the BA post season draft analysis. The anecdotal measure would be it’d have to really sting. Something like Connor Phillips for Teel, then India and Burns for Paxton and whoever.

          Catcher for catcher, pitcher for pitcher, and infielder for generic player *not* on the 40-man.

      3. @Dave, “Arroyo will possibly be the player that forces the club to move on from India, the middle infield trifecta of McLain/Elly/Arroyo being superior to India, MCLain and Elly.”

        That’s my take as well. Next offseason would be the best time to trade India. We got enough AB’s for the guys we got in 24.

    5. Been waiting for this to come over to the free site – so to repeat Doug “This article was first sent out to those who support the site over on Patreon. Early access is one of the perks that you could get be joining up as a Patron and supporting the work done here at RedsMinorLeagues.com.”

      But this line really jumped out – “with a strong year he could be knocking on the door of the big leagues before the season comes to an end.”

      That would make three 21-year olds debuting, with serious playing time, on the Reds in a little more than a year. There’s an historic trivia research question – the mid-60s Astros had Morgan, Staub and Jackson at at that age – don’t recall any others right away.

      2. Defense is probably my favorite part of the game to watch. I kinda enjoy the fact it’s avoided the scientific measuring beast for so long. It’s more seeing is believing. Actually the fun part of not believing what you are actually seeing. Waxing philosophic, I am especially excited to watch Elly’s rail gun arm throw 100 mph missiles across home plate from short left field. And, if Arroyo can push Elly off short, and he might, I’d probably be in heaven.

        Jj Cooper’s BA take on the Reds top ten was pretty odd this year. Some of that is baked in with how they do the future starting lineup, where they compel themselves to use existing starters. In this case they moved India to 3B and Marte to RF.

        I’ve been pretty stubborn about moving Elly off of short, or off the left side of the infield. However, if Arroyo is as good as we think he is with the glove, and if Elly gets bumped to 3B, and if Marte gets bumped to the OF or, possibly, to 1B, and if CES becomes DH … that’d be like four gold gloves Stephenson is a no here, of course) out behind the pitcher. I may be in love …

    6. Dodgers signed Eduardo Salazar, who is still only 25. That’s a smart, typically savvy LA move, not to mention a very savvy career move for Salazar. While he was very overmatched at GABP, I will not be surprised to see him grow j der the LA system.

      1. The Reds moved on from Salazar rather quickly, given how promising he looked in AA, but his Reds/AAA performance was ugly. Improvement may come from having a full year of experience in the pen. The Dodgers, IMO, are the best at pitcher development, so I agree he has a great opportunity.

        1. Doug reminded me that his success at AA coincided with the sticky ball. I don’t think that’s the whole story as he was just a machine before moving up. He actually reminded of long time nemesis, Carl Edwards. Similar build, similar aggressiveness. But he was so clearly not ready that, when demoted, he unraveled even more. Maybe it was the sticky stuff. He’s been one of my sleepers so I’ll follow him along still. He’s only 25.

    7. After Noelvi Marte be graduated , it’s likely Arroyo to be named the #1 Reds prospect along next season…

    8. I was shocked when we got both Marte and Arroyo in the Castillo deal. But the M’s made an aggressive move. Luis is very well loved in Seattle, that’s for sure. They’ve been in glee with how genuinely good of a human being he is. And, with Julio, Geno, and Luis, the Latino audience out this way is all in.

      1. Mostly agree with the surprising return, but it will take years to overcome the numbers Luis will put up the next 2-3 seasons, especially if he helps the M’s get deep into the playoffs.

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