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    Chase Petty (Photo: Dayton Dragons)
    Photo: Dayton Dragons

    Cincinnati Reds #6 Prospect: Chase Petty – RHP

    Doug Gray 30

    After being traded by Minnesota to the Reds in a deal that saw Cincinnati send Sonny Gray to the Twins in March of 2022, Chase Petty put together a strong first full-season in 2022. He split his time between Daytona and Dayton, throwing 98.1 innings during the year with a 3.48 ERA.

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    In spring training of 2023 Chase Petty suffered an elbow injury. While it wasn’t considered to be serious, it did keep his season from starting on time. He missed the first five weeks of the year before he joined High-A Dayton.

    His season debut came on May 10th and he allowed one run on one hit and a walk in 4.0 innings. That outing kind of set the standard for the rest of his season. At no point in his remaining 17 starts did he throw more than 4.0 innings. And his 64 pitches in the game represented what was about his max – topping that number just three times and never by more than three pitches.

    But what it also did was set the bar high for productivity while he was on the mound. That was the only earned run that Chase Petty allowed in his first five starts. Fort Wayne got to him for three runs in his 6th start of the year. He followed that up by allowing four earned runs over his next five starts (17.1 innings). Petty gave up an earned run in each of the two starts after that before Wisconsin scored runs threes against him in his worst start of the season that saw him allow six hits and three walks without a strikeout in the game.

    Following up that start in Wisconsin, Petty didn’t give up another earned run on the season. He threw 16.0 innings over four starts moving forward to close out his season and walked just one batter in that span – and that included his final two starts coming with Double-A Chattanooga as he got a late-season promotion to join the Lookouts.

    For all 2023 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

    Chase Petty Scouting Report

    Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: R/R

    Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 190 lbs | Acquired: 1st Round, 2021 (Twins), Trade (March 2022)

    Born: April 4, 2003

    Fastball | An above-average 2-seamer that generates plenty of grounders.

    Slider | A plus pitch that works in the mid-to-high 80’s.

    Change Up | An above-average pitch that works in the mid-to-high 80’s.

    Coming out of high school Petty was known for his triple-digit fastball, but he’s gone away from that as a pro and has developed a 2-seamer that gets the job done and done well. Not throwing as hard has seemingly also improved his control and command, which is above-average, and allows all of his pitches to play up. And that’s a good thing given that he’s already got two above-average and a plus offering. Good stuff and tons of control (of all of his pitches, too) gives Petty a profile that could be a middle of the rotation starter or better.

    The negative side of this report is that he simply hasn’t been able to show he can handle a full season’s workload yet. In 2023 he was limited to 4-inning starts or 65 pitches – whichever came first. The previous year he only managed to complete five innings in seven of his 25 starts as he was also limited in his pitch counts, never throwing more than 77 pitches in a game and half of his outings being under 60 pitches.

    The upside is certainly there for Petty to be a very good big league starting pitcher. But he’s going to have to show that he can maintain his stuff over a larger workload moving forward. Petty will be 21-years-old next season, so there’s plenty of time for him to continue to build up his workload.

    Video

    Interesting Stat on Chase Petty

    The number 7 hitter in the lineup went zero for the season against Chase Petty in 2023. They went 0-22 with two walks.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    30 Responses

    2. This is the guy I’m most excited about. He still has a lot to prove in the upper minors. He’ll not only face better hitters, but hopefully he’ll pitch longer outings. Need to see 5+ innings as the norm in 24. If so we might see him opening day 25.

      His pitch count might still be very low by then, maybe using him as a 6th starter will makes sense. Not only should the rotation be stacked, but that will lessen the amount of innings he needs to get through his 1st season in the bigs. Man, can you imagine if Lowder is ready by 25 also! Greene, Abbott, Ashcraft, Lodolo, Lowder, Williamson, Phillips, Richardson, Petty. A guy or 2 will need to go to the pen for sure by then.

      1. Given how many pitchers a team tends to use, and the fact that he’s going to start in Double-A, we might not have to wait until 2025 to see him.

        1. Absolutely – that’s what I’m thinking. Still expect him to earn it rather than simply be the next guy in line.

        2. Any of you pitching development guru’s out there. Is 120 IP in 24 a realistic bump?

          It’s nearly a 100% increase over last year (68IP), but with his 2022 IP’s (98) I think his arm would be fine.

          If he can average 5 IP per start in 24, that would have him at 24 starts. To me that would put him in a great position to help the Reds in 25.

    3. I am with you MBS. I am really excited about Petty and the future of the SP in general.

      As a counter to the negative:

      “The negative side of this report is that he simply hasn’t been able to show he can handle a full season’s workload yet.”

      It is not that he has not been able to show he can handle a full season’s workload as much as it is he hasn’t be given the opportunity to show he can handle a full workload.

      The Reds are being ultra conservative with Petty and Richardson. I am okay with this but am hoping this year the Reds extend Petty to 6 innings or 80 pitches (whichever comes first).

      1. It’s going to be interesting to see how they move forward with both Petty and Richardson this year. Petty is far enough away from the bigs that it shouldn’t be an issue. Richardson already has had his cup of coffee, and could be pressed into fulltime service on the Reds at any time.

        I really hope the approach they took last year was the right one, and doesn’t hamper them going forward.

      2. Are there other examples within the Reds system of handling workloads to this extent or is it reserved for the best arms?

    4. At the time of the Gray/Petty trade, I was kind of “meh” about the trade. The Reds were clearly rebuilding, Gray had a injury history, and Petty was a huge upside prospect. While Petty is pitching very well and may turn out to be a quality middle of the rotation piece or better even, he has yet to pitch in any of the upper minors and has a long way to go to reach his ceiling.

      With that said, at this time, I would say the Twins won this trade big time. They got a runner up Cy young performance, 60% of another season with similar stats (2022), and will get another draft pick due to the qualifying offer to Gray. Petty was taken as 26th overall pick and the Twins will get a pick in 30ish range with the compensating round pick. Petty will really have to turn out to be a very, very, very good Major leaguer to change this outcome around. Thoughts?

      1. Good points, especially about the QO added to Gray’s performance. Still, unless Petty simply levels off as is, he looks to become a middling MLB starter, so it may come down to 300ip/1 1/2 years of ace-level Gray vs. 4-5 years, hundreds of ip, of Petty at slightly above average performance.

        If Petty is any better, even as a reliever, the longer time will pay off. And if he’s at that level, there will be a QO for the Reds to offset the Twins this season.

        1. The longer time is a benefit, but speaking theoretically of course, the 31st-34th overall pick the twins get back for the draft will also have the same length of time as Petty and be taken only a few spots different in the draft than Petty was at the time we got him.

          For the record, before people lose their minds, I am not second guessing this trade or saying Krall is an idiot or anything like that. Just pointing out the way this fell out. It could easily have went the same way as the Mahle deal and the Reds came out like bandits.

        2. True, but if Petty works out, the QO will be offset (assuming the QO rules are similar 5-8 years from now). IOW, the QO slightly impacts the overall effect of the deal if Petty doesn’t make it thru a few seasons of high value – if he does the Reds win the deal.

        3. @Larkin, the scales are certainly tipped in the Twins favor at the moment, but I think this one will work out to be a win, win. Really that’s the best you can hope for in a trade.

          I will say Gray would have been huge for the 23 Reds, but that production could have been replaced if we signed a better FA starter than Weaver. Hopefully we won’t be saying the same thing next off season.

      2. To further complicate your great observation LarkinPhillips is that the Twins made the playoffs last year in at least part because of this trade. Hard to imagine the Reds not winning a couple of more games had Gray been in the rotation vs. Weaver.

        1. actually probably not because Reds had a great winning % in Weaver’s starts despite his horrific stats

        2. @Indy, they won despite Weaver, not because of Weaver. His frequent early departures were a big part of burning out a decent bullpen.

        3. I too have to disagree with you Indy. I will give you that the offense did well for Weaver There are 6 games where I think the Reds would have won had Gray been the SP instead of Weaver but I will point out 3 of them. I will assume Gray would have gone 6 innings giving up 2 ER which is higher than his ERA but good enough.

          April 20th: The Reds lose 4-3 to Pittsburgh. Weaver gives up 4 Runs in 6 innings. Using my assumption the Reds win 3-2.

          July 18th: The Reds lose 11-10 to San Francisco.
          Weaver gives up 4 runs in 2.2 innings. Using my assumption the Reds limit the Giants to 9 or less and win.

          August 3rd: The Reds lose 5-3 to the Cubs. Weaver goes 3 innings and gives up 4 ER. In those three innings Gray gives up 1 run in those 3 innings.

          Three wins may not be a lot but that is enough to put them in the playoffs and leave Arizona watching the playoffs on TV.

        4. More importantly as BK pointed out. Gray saves the bullpen which was overworked and not nearly as effective in the second half.

      3. Sound argument, this trade, viewed in isolation may end up in favor of the Twins. I would argue that anytime a team trades a solid major leaguer for a good prospect, it will likely end up favoring the team acquiring the proven major league player.

        On the other hand, this trade was part of a strategic decision to sacrifice current value for future value. Thus, it should be viewed in light of the other transactions that supported the strategy. In that regard, the Reds did well. They own a promising prospect who has the skill to pitch for them for almost seven seasons. Pitching has traded at a premium over the last few years. Thus, even in hindsight, this trade appears to have better aligned both players’ value with the team’s opportunity to win the division.

        1. Interesting points by everybody. Another question, in trade would Petty fetch a player like he did with Gray in 2022?

    5. Would really like to see Petty and Lowder debut later this season, in very limited circumstances. Given Petty’s restrictions so far, if he shines at AA with slightly higher, but still limited, pitch counts, he’d be ready to be one of the extra 2 callups in Sept. to fill an opener/long relief role for a few weeks.

      If Lowder is good from the beginning, even in Dayton, he could move quickly into AA, and also be a callup, perhaps after the trade deadline if a roster spot opens. He’s ahead of Petty as far as workload issues, so he’d be much more a spot starter/emergency long relief.

      If anything, Petty is the more proven of the 2, simply due to the professional experience – Lowder should take right off, but it’s still a different game than D-1.

      1. I really like the Lowder pick, but I am going to need to see him in the minors before even thinking of getting to MLB next year. I think for Petty, I would like to see him pitch deeper in the games and spend most of the year in AA/AAA.

        I don’t see a reason to rush either of these two. I expect Phillips and Richardson to take steps forward this year and assuming the Reds actually sign a major league quality SP, the staff is pretty deep until injuries pile up like the last couple of years. Krall has been pretty decent about adding AAA depth as well that “should” help a little if injuries get too bad.

        1. Richardson, and especially Phillips, are the primary MiLB callups to the staff. If Phillips starts well in AAA he may be recalled very early – late May/June. Otherwise, expect both will see time from mid-season on.

      2. Optimist, I hope we don’t have to see either of them in the bigs this year. Why? That means the guys we have are performing well and staying healthy. Which should have us firmly in the playoff picture.

        1. I thought about that, and it’s truer for Lowder staying in MiLB – I still hope and expect Petty to do very well this season in MiLB and get one of the extra 2 spots in Sept.. It sets him up for Spring 2025 and makes him an emergency playoff roster possibility. Somewhat akin to the Finnegan role on the Royals WS team.

          If they are seriously good into the playoffs, then keep Lowder in MiLB all season, and let him be the primary roster candidate for Spring 2025.

    6. Petty’s transformation to a ground ball artiste is pretty darn interesting in a couple ways.

      One, why throw 100 at max effort when you can throw 93, let hitters beat the ball into the ground and have a lot of short innings? The infielders love it as it keeps the game both active and moving. I’ve heard the outfielders love it too. Plus, the guys with high strikeout rates also have high pitch counts, being you need at least three pitches or more to K somebody, right?

      You also have to wonder how much this transformation will become more prevalent, though. The Reds, as with many clubs, are infatuated with the high four seam fastball. We know to succeed at GABP, pitching has to avoid fly balls. Getting K’s seems to be the primary way DJ to leads the flock as a result. But, high ground ball guys are still kind of sexy. We shall see.

      1. Great points. We’re also at a point where the infield defense will complement a ground ball pitcher better than in the past.

        1. Sadly, Joey’s D the last few years has been, well, sad. Someone (MK?) mentioned he no doubt benefitted many years with Brandon Phillips next to him. I’d go further and suggest Joey’s one Gold Glove probably was a certain percentage due to BP as well.

          CES Collier, and Stewart, both prospective long term 1B’s were each serviceable 3B. The transition to 1B, once complete, should see them solid average there. Maybe India’s D improves, too, given no longer having to cover so much for Votto.

          Either way, we have a talented middle infield of McLain, EDLC and India. This includes an absolute weapon in Elly and that railgun arm. On the 3B corner, there is Marte, or one of India, Elly, CES if Arroyo claims sort stop, as he just might and/or Marte is forced off 3B. Barrero, no slouch at short, himself, backs up. If not Jose, Miguel Hernandez is going to surprise at AAA.

          Callahan, Johnson, Urbaez, Quintana at AA …

          And then, there are the Hi-A and Lo-A kiddoes. Jorge, Balczar, Acosta, Cabrera, Ascanio, Pitelli, Stafura.

    7. I wonder why the Reds staff has been limiting Petty to short starts along his career since he arrived to the org. It’s true he had a elbow injury but his treatment is like a TJ surgery or something like that. Not even Greene was pitching so short while stayed at the minors after his TJ surgery.

    8. Lets say the Reds do not add any FA position players to the team, by the end of the year the team could look like this. (I still want a big bat added)

      C Stephenson / Maile
      DH Fraley / India
      1B CES / Steer
      2B McLain / India
      3B Marte / Arroyo
      SS EDLC / Arroyo
      RF Benson / Steer
      CF Dunn / Arroyo
      LF Friedl / Steer

      It might not be the ideal way to start 24, given that the 12 and 13 players would likely be Barrero, and Fairchild, but by the end of the year we could be stacked if things go well.

      1. That’s a pretty deep team and a big reason I believe any added bat should be short-term, not long-term. This illustrates why the focus should be on adding pitching.

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