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    Reds MiLB Notebook: Checking in on the Draft Prospects

    Doug Gray 46

    Baseball America released their latest mock draft this week. In a college heavy draft, the top eight picks are all coming out of college, with just one high school player in the top 10. The Cincinnati Reds have the 2nd overall pick in 2024’s draft and Baseball America has them selecting Florida first baseman Jac Caglianone.

    He’s one of the best hitters in college. And he’s coming off of a season where he hit 33 home runs as a sophomore. Oh yeah, he’s also a pitcher who can throw in the upper 90’s who has made nine starts with a 3.86 ERA and has 54 strikeouts in 44.1 innings this season.

    At this point, though, it appears that everyone is higher on Caglianone as a hitter. He’s hitting .401/.495/.854 this season for Florida with 23 walks and just 14 strikeouts in 186 plate appearances. An interesting part of his slugging percentage is that he’s hit just two doubles this season. 23 of his 25 extra-base hits have landed over the fence. He’s made big strides in making more contact this season, cutting his strikeout rate from 18.2% (which is very high for an elite level college hitter) to 7.5% from 2023 to 2024. That’s helped lead to a higher average, and his walk rate going from a very low 5.3% to 12.4% this season has helped his OPS jump up 222 points from last year.

    Some other performances of note……

    Charlie Condon out of Georgia is making a mockery of college pitching. The outfielder is hitting .483 with a .584 on-base percentage, and to be clear that this is not a typo – a slugging percentage of 1.119. He has hit 16 doubles, a triple, and 26 home runs in 197 plate appearances. He’s walked 33 times and he’s struck out 29 times this season.

    Left-handed starter Hagan Smith is carving up hitters this spring. He’s made 10 starts an dis 8-0 with a 1.53 ERA. In his 53.0 innings pitched he’s struck out 100 of the 207 hitters he’s faced, given up just 24 hits – including four home runs – and he’s walked 22 batters.

    The youngsters are hot

    Sticking with the Baseball America theme, both Cam Collier and Ricardo Cabrera find themselves on The Prospect Hot Sheet for their performances last week.

    Cabrera was named the Florida State League Player of the Week last week, so him making the Hot Sheet is no surprise. He hit .500/.565/.800 last week against Bradenton. As noted by Baseball America, he’s hit .348 since the start of last season – he can hit. Through his 12 games this season he’s hitting .357/.471/.595 – good for an OPS of 1.066. The average Florida State League line this season is .221/.337/.332.

    There are 23 players who are in their age 18 or age 19 year in the Florida State League right now who have at least 10 plate appearances. Ricardo Cabrera’s 1.066 OPS is over 200 points higher than anyone else on the list. Teammate Alfredo Duno has the second highest OPS among the group with an .857 mark.

    Cam Collier didn’t hit for quite the same average last week as Cabrera did, but he showed more power as he hit .292/.346/.833 with four home runs. It was just another week in the hot start for Collier, who is now hitting .328/.361/.672 through 14 games. His six home runs this season already match the total he hit last year in 111 games. And if not for a robbed home run already this season, he’d have already topped last season’s total.

    Previewing tonight’s games

    Louisville Bats

    Sitting at 9-12, the Louisville Bats will begin a 6-game series with Nashville (11-10) at home in Louisville. Last week was tough on the Bats roster from an injury standpoint as they saw Levi Jordan, Quincy McAfee, and Michael Byrne all head to the injured list. They did add Livan Soto, who the Reds picked up on waivers. Casey Legumina was also called up to Cincinnati on Monday.

    Chattanooga Lookouts

    It’s been a tough start to the season for the Lookouts. They did run off a 3-game winning streak, but they also sit at 4-10 as they open up a 6-game series against Birmingham (10-5). The Barons took the first three games of the season against Chattanooga, outscoring them 25-4 in the opening series of the year. Last week the Lookouts added Nick Northcut to the roster and placed outfielders Anthony Alford and Justice Thompson on the injured list after both suffered leg injuries while running the bases.

    Dayton Dragons

    The Dragons (6-9) hit the road this week as they’ll play six games in Lansing (7-8). Dayton opened the season up by taking two of three at home against the Lugnuts. Pitchers Easton Sikorski and John Murphy both joined Dayton this week, and outfielder Jay Allen II was activated over the weekend from the injured list. Tanner Cooper was placed on the injured list with a right flexor mass strain.

    Daytona Tortugas

    Returning home, Daytona (8-7) will host St. Lucie (7-8) for a 6-game set at Jackie Robinson Ballpark. The Tortugas took two of three games from the Mets in St. Lucie to begin the season. Things went well from a health standpoint for Daytona last week as they made no transactions.

    4/23 Game Preview

    Team RecordTime (ET)Probable Box ScoreListen Watch
    Louisville9-126:05pmTBAHereHereHere
    Chattanooga4-107:15pmTBAHereHereHere
    Dayton6-96:05pmCardonaHereHereHere
    Daytona8-76:35pmTBAHereHereN/A

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    46 Responses

    2. Hoping the Reds select an outfielder, it’s the weakest position on the current ML team.

      1. Um… you never draft for positional need in the MLB draft.

        The current Reds roster should have no bearing on players you draft today, who you don’t expect to see in Cincy for 3 or more years.

        2. Didn’t say you do draft to ML team’s need, only that OF is Reds weakest position currently.

      2. I don’t disagree with you @Laredo, an OF would be a perfect fit for what we need. I really wanted Max Clark last year. The lottery stole our shot at him, but gave us a gift this year.

        The talent in the draft is infield heavy for the 1st few picks. I’d love to land Kurtz, but if he were to go #1, then I’d say Bazzana would also be great.

        I’d love to see a lineup with Kurtz, and CES batting back to back. That’s a ton of power.

    3. Caglionone is the best hitter on a surprisingly mediocre Florida baseball team with little protection for him in the lineup (the guy behind him in the lineup is hitting .277) and Cags has 23 homeruns to only 14 strikeouts, drastically cutting down his K’s from his past.
      Oddly he only has 2 doubles, 0 triples but 23 homeruns in 63 hits. But he has almost double the amount of homeruns as he does strikeouts in the best conference in the land, the SEC.

      1. The Reds do love their SEC. Most do I suspect. Jac strikes me as a high(er) risk, high(er) gain type of draft pick. As I mentioned in a previous article here when discussing the draft, Im not big on two way players. Or at least having that follow them into pro ball. I don’t know enough to tell if the lack of doubles is a red flag or not. Does it mean he’s too fly ball prone?

    4. Assuming Bazzana doesn’t go at 1.1, I would rather the Reds select him instead of Caglione at 1.2

      Bazzana provides more positional ability across the infield, instead of being limited at 1B. And has more speed.

      Bazzana has a comparable HR:AB ratio (7.2 vs 6.8), and generally makes better contact, as Bazzana has extra base hits on 53% of his hits vs only 40% for Caglione (who is HR-or-bust).

      Bazzana also has an insane walk-to-strikeout ratio of nearly 3-to-1.

      1. Bazzana has a clearer path to the ML’s than we may assume, too. Looking at a post-India eta, and not assuming MCLain is suited for the 162 game grind (that should the name of a coffee blend), Bazzana could well be starting at 2B fairly soon with McLain becoming a super utility guy. And, to be clear, I’m not saying draft for position. I am saying it’s ok to draft for clear pathways forward.

      2. Being a Florida fan, I watch a bunch of their games which has been harder this year than the last few for sure. Jac seems limited to 1B to try to save him for his Sunday start on the mound. He’s not limited athletically due to being slow-footed or overweight and actually gets down the line quicker than you’d think. I believe he could easily handle a corner OF and obviously has the arm strength for RF.

    5. The draft is very interesting this year. College heavy, but the Reds have sent a lot of brass to see the one High Schooler (Konor Griffin) that supposedly has the best tools of any of the college guys. I don’t recall a draft that has so many potential top hitters/pitchers as this one. The Reds will have a plethora of choices to make at #2 for sure. I prefer Condon if he’s available but hard to pass up a Bazzanna and his 70-hit tool as well (if there’s there). Caglione certainly has the power, as does Kutz. Then there’s Smith and Burns two top of the rotation type pitchers that are mowing through college hitters. Will be interesting to see where the Reds decide to go.

    6. How does this draft compare to previous years, especially for the top 1-2 picks?

      1. Just for an idea:
        Quite comparable in my opinion. Lots of college hitters. Not has many HS hitters. A couple of stand out pitchers (Skenes–Lowder in 23; Burns–H Smith–24). In the top half of both drafts virtually devoid of HS pitches.

        There is more college power at the top of this draft with Caglianone (23), Condon (26), Kurtz (17), Bazzanna (19) and Braden Montgomery (22) all already having or close to what Wyatt Langford (21) and Dylan Crews (18) hit as far as more runs are concerned and the 2024 season is not even completed yet.

        The top 4 picks this year should be a hitter (no Paul Skenes this year).

        1. As ranked:
          2019. 1. Rutschman, 2. Witt
          2020. 1. Torkleson, 2. Martin,13. Kjerstad
          2021. 1. Lawler, 2. Mayer, 4. Davis
          2022. 1. Jones, 2. Lee, 3. Holliday
          2023. 1. Crews, 2. Skenes, 3. Langford, 4. Jenkins, 5. Clark

      2. Given the likelihood of the top two picks being hitters, the top two+ hitters drafted recently:*

        2019. 1. Rutschman, 2. Witt
        2020. 1. Torkleson, 2. Kjerstad
        2021. 1. David, 2. Leiter (RHP), 4. Mayer
        2022. 1. Holliday, 2. Jones
        2023. 1. Skenes (RHP), 2. Crews, 3. Clark, 4. Langford, 5. Jenkins

        *Not necessarily the top two as rated,

        2. As ranked:
          2019. 1. Rutschman, 2. Witt
          2020. 1. Torkleson, 2. Martin,13. Kjerstad
          2021. 1. Lawler, 2. Mayer, 4. Davis
          2022. 1. Jones, 2. Lee, 3. Holliday
          2023. 1. Crews, 2. Skenes, 3. Langford, 4. Jenkins, 5. Clark

    7. An interesting stat about Condon is that nearly half of his walks are intentional walks. Curious if his plate discipline isn’t quite as good as the numbers would have you believe.

      My top 4 in order:

      1. Travis Bazzana
      2. Charlie Condon
      3. Hagen Smith
      4. Jac Caglianone

      I’m ready to drink the Kool Aid on any of those four.

      1. Staying with my earlier angle of the clearest pathways to the majors, neither Bazzana and Condon really have major barriers in their path to GABP. Both could fit into starting 2B or super utility roles, and Condon can fit in a corner OF, or 3B, dependent on Marte’s future with us. Jac would have to beat out CES, if I read his defensive limitations right. Smith seems like he’d fit in alongside Rowder and would need some opportunities to emerge among the starters up with the big club.

        1. I could see Jac at 1B & DH and CES at 3B, 1Band DH. Lefty-righty combo. They could make it work.

        2. Umm pretty clear pat for Jac at DH since Reds are currently throwing Nick Martini out there regularly.

        4. Sure. Short term and only until McLain, Friedl, Marte return, as regarding Martini.

          Later, though, it’s stiff competition for those DH at bats with the middle infield trio of EDLC/India/McLain, the corner infield trio of CES, Candelario, and Marte, and the OF group of Friedl, Steer, Benson, Fraley, etc.

          And looking ahead, while there may or may not be any of our younger minor league players (Collier, Cabrera) ahead of him in 2025 or in 2026, as he may well be advanced, there’s a good chance Arroyo, Dunn, Hurtubise and possibly Hinds will be actively in the mix, especially with an expiring contracts of India and Candelario. Still tough going.

          What I think is true, though, is that if he really is that good, or Condon, or Bazzano, room will be cleared when the time comes. Hence the mantra, best player available.

    8. I hope the Reds look at James Tibbs, RF for FSU, in 2nd round if he’s still there. I think Law has him ranked around 40.

      I’ve watched him a dozen times this season. Legit power to all fields, excellent hitter with more HR’s and more walks than K’s. In the field, he’s still learning the OF but has an outstanding arm, and you can find a position for a guy with the bat skills that he has.

      1. Just to follow up on Tibbs…there are 4 players in college baseball with more HR’s than K’s. Two are Bazzanna and Caglionone. Tibbs is another, with 17 HR’s and 15 K’s.

        I’ve watched a ton of FSU baseball over the last 30 years. The 3 best pure hitters I’ve seen are JD Drew, Buster Posey and James Tibbs. He’d be a steal in the 2nd round.

    9. Chattanooga game tonight and Thomas Farr with a second decent outing.

      So far this year, better K ratio (7.07 to 6.42) and much better BB ratio (1.93 to 3.37); H the same. Feedback has been lack of consistency (along with 2/3 of the minor leagues). But he’s got a decent arm, sits mid 90’s. Pretty hard to see him beating out any of the five in GABP right now, with Lowder in the wings, and even with Phillips, Lyons, Petty et al scuffling. So his reliever profile is there. That said, I do not have confidence in Roa above him much beyond middle relief, so spots may emerge in two or so seasons.

      Dark horses and sleepers are fun to watch.

    10. I’d eyeball Braden Montgomery with a below slot deal, and then see who we can buy in the second round with that savings.

      I also really like Montgomery, as he doesn’t seem far behind the other top guys as a hitter, and figures to be a better defender in right than the others project to be at their positions.

      1. When you have a chance to take the #1 or #2 guy in the entire draft, you do it. Don’t play around.

        1. I understand that logic, but who are the top two players in this draft? Based on the ever changing mocks both pre-season and throughout this spring, there isn’t a consensus on that, and the standings keep changing.

          If the Reds picked #2 last year, your position would make a lot more sense.

        2. The Reds have a board with players ranked how they see it. Take the top guy that’s available at #2 according to that board. Don’t take anyone else.

    11. I’ve been thinking Jac was the pick since the Reds won the lottery if available. I admit its hard to include Condom at this point too. This draft in general is looking pretty amazing. But I think what sets Jac apart for me is the legit potential for him to impact the Reds lineup and pitching staff in a big way. His ceiling is basically Matt Olsen and Josh Hader in one package. That’s just hard if not impossible for any other prospect to match. With Jac, Elly, and CES hitting back to back to back at Great American, Reds would have 3 guys (lefty, righty, switch hitter) in the middle of the lineup with 40 homer potential.

      1. If we draft Caglianone, I want him to be a hitter only all the way. If we need the odd position player to pitch at some point, then he’s your man, but if we draft him at #2, it’s for the bat alone and don’t mess around with developing the bat. Not even Ohtani stuck doing both and missed hundreds of at bats because of pitching injuries.

        1. Hey I don’t know what you mean by not even Ohtani stuck doing both. Unless you know something the rest of the planet doesn’t, Ohtani is pitching again next year after recovering from arm surgery.

    13. Bazzana or Condon. One will get selected 1:1, the other should be the Reds pick.

      Jac is not going to be a two way player as a pro, just like Hunter was not, despite the talent. And he’s a tick behind the others in both hitting and positional value.

      1. Not sure if that’s a great comparison hype Greene was a raw high school short stop. Jac is a pitcher dominating in the SEC. Perhaps if Greene would have gone to USC and done what JAC is doing now, he might have been developed as a two way talent as a pro. Another thing that has changed since Greene was drafted was Ohtani forever changed the game. And teams are more open to trying the concept. I’m not saying Jacthani is going to be a top ten starting pitcher and top 3 hitter. He does have some crazy tools. But I will say he could be a top ten hitter and top 10 closer. 6’5″ lefties throwing 99 as a starter don’t grow on trees. I think it would be wasteful to just use him strictly at 1st and DH

    14. I do think it worth mentioning that once SEC play has started, Caglianone has outpaced Condon by quite a few HR. He’s only one behind Condon on the season now, and Condon was somewhere around 8-10 ahead going into SEC play.

      1. The record tying 9 game homer streak helped him catch up I suppose. I know college stats are a lot different than pros but this guy is hitting .400. more homers than ks. College record of NINE games with homers. Yeah I mentioned it twice. But that’s quite a streak. Throws 99 as a starting pitcher. Looks like Captain America but I don’t think he was built in a lab to fight the Nazis in WWII. Hes just an unheard of talent like Elly and Ohtani. If Reds just pass, I’d be let down.

    16. I know you draft best available player BUT if there are more than one guy available at that 2nd pick that are equally worthy then Reds do need to consider position. The Reds do not need more of 2nd/short/3rd basemen group. The amount of young players they have there is staggering. And it’s already starting to get confusing to see how that’s going to sort itself out over the next few years, when players like McLain, Marte, Arroyo, Balcazar, Collier, Stewart, Jorge, Cabrera, Mariano, Lin need a place to play. Yeah I realize the group will be thinned by injury, trade, position switch, etc but the point is if it’s dollars to dollars Reds need to get a middle of the order slugger whether that’s Condon, JAC, or Kurtz. Something besides Elly and CES they really don’t have in the entire organization.

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