With two months in the books it seemed like a good time to take a look at some of the available Statcast data for the Cincinnati Reds pitching prospects. We only have data for Triple-A and for Single-A Daytona’s road games. While it would be great to have data for every team I remember the days of having radar readings that were off by 4-5 MPH because of where the gun was located at, so I’m not sure that I should complain at all.

If you just want to see the raw data, scroll to the bottom and have at it. But I would like to talk about some individual pitch types and pitchers before getting to all of that.

The 4-Seam Fastball

When it comes to the fastball the thing everyone looks at first is how fast it was. It likely comes as no surprise to you that Zach Maxwell is leading the way among the 31 pitchers we’ve got data on. The right-handed reliever has thrown 52 fastballs with Louisville since joining the club and he’s averaging 98.8 MPH. That’s 1.9 MPH better than Tony Santillan, who is next best on the list at 96.9 MPH. Among the starting pitchers it’s Connor Phillips leading the way at 96.4 MPH. Lyon Richardson is next among the starters at 95.1 MPH.

But velocity isn’t everything. Being deceptive with your delivery can help. Movement can help. Sequencing your pitches can help. We’ve got information on each pitchers whiff rate on their pitches. Whiff rate is swings-and-misses divided by swings. Which guys have the highest whiff rates on their 4-seam fastballs? Among the pitchers who have thrown 50 4-seamers the guy with the highest whiff rate is Jose Franco. The starter was just promoted to Dayton and had a 38.5% whiff rate while with Daytona. Zach Maxwell is right behind him at 38.1%. Tony Santillan, Anyer Laureano, and Brett Kennedy are the only other pitchers over the 30% mark.

The 2-seam Fastball

The top velocity on 2-seam fastballs isn’t a surprise – it comes from Yosver Zulueta at 96.6 MPH. He was also among the leaders in 4-seam velocity, but he throws a 2-seamer far more often. Anyer Laureano was also among the leaders in 4-seam velocity, but his 2-seamer is second on the list at 95.1 MPH. Among starting pitchers who use the pitch with a little bit of regularity, it’s Lyon Richardson coming in at 93.4 MPH.

While the 2-seam fastball is more about getting groundballs than getting swings and misses, it’s still a pitch that can generate some misses. Among guys with at least 50 2-seamers thrown it’s Jonah Hurney leading the way with a 30% whiff rate on the pitch. What’s interesting there is that it’s a pitch that averages 88.8 MPH. Cody Adcock is next on the list and he’s at 23.3%. Among the starters it’s Carson Spiers at 23%.

The Cutter

There aren’t many guys that throw the pitch in the system. There are a few guys who are listed as throwing a cutter, but I’m of the belief that the pitch is actually a slider that’s being misclassified. Some cutters can be very slider like and they can almost blend together.

With that said, among the ones I believe are actually cutters – it’s Simon Miller leading the way with a 50% whiff rate on his cutter. Dylan Simmons is next at 46.4%. Carson Spiers leads the way among starting pitchers at 25.8%.

The Change Up

Pure velocity isn’t really important here. It’s about deception – selling it as a fastball but have enough separation in velocity from the fastball. For that reason we’re not diving into who is throwing the change up the hardest. But we do care about the whiff rate on the pitch.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 change ups this season in the two leagues we’ve got data on it’s Nestor Lorant leading the way with a 59.1% whiff rate. Spencer Stockton is next on the list and comes in with a 50% whiff rate on the pitch. Among the starting pitchers it’s Brian Edgington at 44.7%. Jose Franco is next starter on the list at 33.3%.

The Curveball

As a secondary pitch, it’s also less about the velocity than the movement and deception. So looking at the whiff rates among pitchers with at least 40 of them thrown it’s once again Nestor Lorant atop the list at 41.7%. Evan Kravetz is next on the list at 34.8%. Connor Phillips leads the starters at 34.4%.

The Slider

Sliders are a weird pitch. Some guys throw a slider that is fairly straight on the horizontal plane, but bits hard in a downward fashion on the vertical plane. Others throw more of a sweeping slider that is somehow not a “sweeper” (but I guess this is another conversation for another day).  Some guys throw a hard slider, while others have a large velocity difference with their slider and fastball. So many different ways for this pitch to play out.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 sliders we’ve got data on, Michael Byrne’s 50% whiff rate tops the chart. Adam Serwinowski and Brooks Kriske are next, tied at 48.1%. Christian Roa, Yosvery Zulueta, and Justin Bruihl are also above the 40% mark.

The Sweeper

I think there’s probably some pitch identification issues here, and with the cutter, and with the slider, as some of these pitches can blend together enough to be charted as one or the other. That said, five pitchers are throwing what’s being labeled as a sweeper. Carson Spiers has thrown 187 of them and has a 41.4% whiff rate on it to lead the way among the three pitchers who have thrown at least 40 of them. Alan Busenitz is at 30.8%, and Connor Phillips is at 25.9%.

The Raw Data

Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Adam Serwinowski 2-Seam 13 5.7% 14.3% 93.4
Adam Serwinowski 4-Seam 156 68.7% 21.5% 93.8
Adam Serwinowski Slider 58 25.6% 48.1% 82.2
Alan Busenitz 2-Seam 48 14.5% 25.0% 93.7
Alan Busenitz 4-Seam 67 20.2% 18.8% 94.0
Alan Busenitz Change 19 5.7% 28.6% 87.0
Alan Busenitz Curve 44 13.3% 33.3% 81.9
Alan Busenitz Cutter 76 22.9% 7.7% 90.9
Alan Busenitz Sweeper 78 23.5% 30.8% 82.7
Alexander Johnson 2-Seam 6 10.5% 0.0% 92.4
Alexander Johnson 4-Seam 37 64.9% 18.2% 94.1
Alexander Johnson Change 2 3.5% 0.0% 86.2
Alexander Johnson Cutter 6 10.5% 33.3% 86.7
Alexander Johnson Slider 6 10.5% 33.3% 83.0
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Anyer Laureano 2-Seam 40 17.5% 20.0% 95.1
Anyer Laureano 4-Seam 128 56.1% 30.8% 96.5
Anyer Laureano Change 1 0.4% 100.0% 83.9
Anyer Laureano Cutter 28 12.3% 88.9% 86.6
Anyer Laureano Slider 31 13.6% 85.7% 85.4
Ben Brutti 2-Seam 39 19.6% 13.3% 92.6
Ben Brutti 4-Seam 58 29.1% 21.1% 92.1
Ben Brutti Change 17 8.5% 20.0% 86.2
Ben Brutti Slider 85 42.7% 36.6% 83.1
Brandon Leibrandt 4-Seam 103 62.0% 12.2% 88.3
Brandon Leibrandt Change 26 15.7% 37.5% 80.1
Brandon Leibrandt Curve 37 22.3% 20.0% 76.7
Brett Kennedy 2-Seam 237 39.8% 13.8% 91.4
Brett Kennedy 4-Seam 135 22.7% 30.6% 91.9
Brett Kennedy Change 155 26.0% 29.1% 81.8
Brett Kennedy Slider 69 11.6% 34.6% 85.1
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Brian Edgington 4-Seam 136 51.1% 15.5% 91.6
Brian Edgington Change 75 28.2% 44.7% 83.3
Brian Edgington Slider 55 20.7% 36.8% 83.6
Brooks Kriske 4-Seam 95 25.5% 10.0% 93.1
Brooks Kriske Change 128 34.4% 46.7% 81.4
Brooks Kriske Slider 58 15.6% 48.1% 81.2
Brooks Kriske Splitter 91 24.5% 45.8% 81.8
Carson Spiers 2-Seam 150 23.7% 23.0% 91.8
Carson Spiers 4-Seam 120 19.0% 28.1% 92.1
Carson Spiers Change 65 10.3% 12.5% 86.1
Carson Spiers Cutter 111 17.5% 25.8% 87.4
Carson Spiers Sweeper 187 29.5% 41.4% 81.6
Casey Legumina 4-Seam 188 57.1% 28.9% 93.6
Casey Legumina Change 58 17.6% 32.0% 87.6
Casey Legumina Slider 62 18.8% 33.3% 84.1
Casey Legumina Sweeper 21 6.4% 0.0% 82.1
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Christian Roa 4-Seam 194 48.4% 11.5% 94.3
Christian Roa Change 64 16.0% 25.8% 85.5
Christian Roa Curve 5 1.2% No Swings 84.9
Christian Roa Slider 138 34.4% 46.3% 87.2
Cody Adcock 2-Seam 105 54.1% 23.3% 94.0
Cody Adcock 4-Seam 39 20.1% 53.3% 93.7
Cody Adcock Change 15 7.7% 100.0% 85.1
Cody Adcock Cutter 9 4.6% 50.0% 83.4
Cody Adcock Slider 26 13.4% 21.4% 82.5
Connor Phillips 4-Seam 442 54.2% 14.9% 96.4
Connor Phillips Change 19 2.3% 33.3% 90.2
Connor Phillips Curve 81 9.9% 34.4% 84.7
Connor Phillips Sweeper 274 33.6% 25.9% 84.8
Dylan Simmons 2-Seam 4 4.4% 100.0% 92.1
Dylan Simmons 4-Seam 22 24.4% 0.0% 93.8
Dylan Simmons Change 1 1.1% No Swings 86.3
Dylan Simmons Curve 14 15.6% 0.0% 80.6
Dylan Simmons Cutter 49 54.4% 46.4% 88.8
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Evan Kravetz 4-Seam 123 39.2% 19.0% 89.4
Evan Kravetz Change 110 35.0% 37.3% 79.7
Evan Kravetz Curve 81 25.8% 34.8% 79.2
Gabe Starks 2-Seam 25 25.3% 16.7% 92.9
Gabe Starks 4-Seam 43 43.4% 13.3% 93.4
Gabe Starks Change 5 5.1% 0.0% 83.5
Gabe Starks Curve 7 7.1% 0.0% 80.6
Gabe Starks Slider 19 19.2% 85.7% 81.8
Gabriel Aguilera 2-Seam 58 22.3% 11.5% 92.0
Gabriel Aguilera 4-Seam 52 20.0% 13.3% 91.5
Gabriel Aguilera Change 79 30.4% 43.2% 81.8
Gabriel Aguilera Slurve 71 27.3% 38.5% 79.0
Graham Osman 2-Seam 20 44.4% 25.0% 91.0
Graham Osman 4-Seam 1 2.2% No Swings 91.4
Graham Osman Change 10 22.2% 0.0% 88.8
Graham Osman Curve 1 2.2% No Swings 81.9
Graham Osman Slider 13 28.9% 50.0% 82.5
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Jonah Hurney 2-Seam 98 52.7% 30.0% 88.8
Jonah Hurney Change 14 7.5% 25.0% 82.9
Jonah Hurney Curve 14 7.5% 33.3% 80.3
Jonah Hurney Slider 60 32.3% 36.7% 82.4
Jose Franco 2-Seam 25 10.2% 38.5% 93.6
Jose Franco 4-Seam 135 55.3% 38.5% 93.9
Jose Franco Change 51 20.9% 33.3% 86.5
Jose Franco Curve 33 13.5% 61.5% 84.4
Jose Montero 2-Seam 85 30.2% 14.3% 93.3
Jose Montero 4-Seam 52 18.5% 14.3% 93.6
Jose Montero Change 52 18.5% 20.0% 87.3
Jose Montero Cutter 14 5.0% 0.0% 86.2
Jose Montero Slider 78 27.8% 38.5% 85.4
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Juan Martinez 2-Seam 13 7.0% 75.0% 91.1
Juan Martinez 4-Seam 114 61.3% 18.4% 90.3
Juan Martinez Change 28 15.1% 36.4% 81.4
Juan Martinez Curve 27 14.5% 35.7% 77.1
Juan Martinez Cutter 1 0.5% No Swings 88.2
Juan Martinez Slider 3 1.6% 0.0% 79.5
Justin Bruihl 2-Seam 110 32.3% 12.5% 89.3
Justin Bruihl Cutter 131 38.4% 15.8% 87.1
Justin Bruihl Slider 100 29.3% 42.2% 78.0
Lyon Richardson 2-Seam 146 16.7% 11.1% 93.4
Lyon Richardson 4-Seam 256 29.3% 27.7% 95.1
Lyon Richardson Change 224 25.6% 21.8% 85.8
Lyon Richardson Curve 61 7.0% 18.2% 79.1
Lyon Richardson Slider 187 21.4% 27.5% 83.2
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Michael Byrne 2-Seam 28 21.9% 23.1% 92.8
Michael Byrne 4-Seam 16 12.5% 50.0% 92.6
Michael Byrne Change 9 7.0% 60.0% 85.0
Michael Byrne Curve 1 0.8% No Swings 76.0
Michael Byrne Cutter 23 18.0% 30.0% 90.7
Michael Byrne Slider 51 39.8% 50.0% 80.9
Nestor Lorant 4-Seam 68 30.9% 26.2% 90.4
Nestor Lorant Change 70 31.8% 59.1% 82.4
Nestor Lorant Curve 51 23.2% 41.7% 75.0
Nestor Lorant Cutter 3 1.4% 100.0% 88.9
Nestor Lorant Slider 27 12.3% 23.1% 82.0
Nick Sando 2-Seam 33 23.6% 11.1% 91.8
Nick Sando 4-Seam 50 35.7% 28.6% 91.5
Nick Sando Change 16 11.4% 25.0% 87.6
Nick Sando Slider 41 29.3% 35.7% 81.1
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Randy Wynne 2-Seam 97 28.9% 9.3% 89.6
Randy Wynne 4-Seam 11 3.3% 12.5% 88.3
Randy Wynne Change 43 12.8% 20.0% 79.8
Randy Wynne Curve 51 15.2% 23.5% 74.3
Randy Wynne Cutter 102 30.4% 25.0% 85.7
Randy Wynne Slider 32 9.5% 7.7% 78.9
Simon Miller 2-Seam 37 38.1% 43.8% 93.5
Simon Miller 4-Seam 6 6.2% 33.3% 92.5
Simon Miller Change 4 4.1% 50.0% 87.1
Simon Miller Cutter 50 51.5% 50.0% 88.7
Spencer Stockton 2-Seam 8 5.6% 0.0% 89.8
Spencer Stockton 4-Seam 35 24.3% 15.8% 89.8
Spencer Stockton Change 41 28.5% 50.0% 84.0
Spencer Stockton Curve 7 4.9% 0.0% 79.5
Spencer Stockton Cutter 15 10.4% 30.0% 85.2
Spencer Stockton Slider 38 26.4% 15.4% 82.2
Player Pitch Pitches Usage Whiff Rate Velo
Tony Santillan 4-Seam 292 62.7% 32.5% 96.9
Tony Santillan Change 5 1.1% 50.0% 89.4
Tony Santillan Slider 169 36.3% 38.3% 86.3
Yosver Zulueta 2-Seam 261 62.0% 13.5% 96.6
Yosver Zulueta 4-Seam 31 7.4% 16.7% 96.6
Yosver Zulueta Change 2 0.5% No Swings 89.7
Yosver Zulueta Slider 104 24.7% 44.4% 87.7
Yosver Zulueta Sweeper 23 5.5% 66.7% 87.0
Zach Maxwell 4-Seam 52 78.8% 38.1% 98.8
Zach Maxwell Cutter 14 21.2% 100.0% 88.4

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

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