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    Reds MiLB Notebook: The good, the bad, and the ugly

    Doug Gray 23

    We’re going to start with the ugly, today. Sunday saw the Chattanooga Lookouts lose 6-1. They fell to 17-46 on the year. That’s a .270 winning percentage. Not only is that the worst winning percentage in the minors, but it’s far and away the worst. The next worst winning percentage is .317. 115 of the other 119 full season minor league teams have a winning percentage at least 100 points higher.

    Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate has the worst offense in the minors among the full season teams. They are averaging just 3.40 runs per game. The next worst in the minors is 3.55 runs. Chattanooga has the 5th lowest walk rate in the minors and the 11th highest strikeout rate. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is the second worst in the minors.

    The pitching hasn’t exactly been good, either. In fact, it’s been bad. Chattanooga is allowing 5.11 runs per game, which is the 36th highest among the 120 teams. That is better than both Dayton and Louisville. Still, it’s the offense and their complete inability to score runs that is holding them back.

    To wrap up the depressing notes on the Lookouts, since winning three games in a row against Tennessee on May 7th and 8th (doubleheader on the 8th) they’ve won back-to-back games just one time, going 7-27.

    The Good

    There have been some performances that have stood out from the rookie leagues. The Arizona Complex League began in early May and several guys have gotten out to impressive starts.

    Sheng-En Lin signed a 7-figure bonus last summer out of Taiwan. Still just 18-years-old, he’s having a big start to the year. He’s hitting .358/.472/.519 with eight stolen bases, 21 walks, and 28 strikeouts in 106 plate appearances. In 2023 he only played in nine games and three of those saw him at shortstop and five were in center with the other one as the designated hitter. This season he’s spent a majority of his time at third base, with just five games at shortstop.

    Kyle Henley hasn’t hit quite as well, but he’s hitting .275/.336/.392. He’s excelled on the bases, though. He’s 23-for-23 in stolen base attempts, and he is easily leading the league in steals. Henley has scored 21 runs in his 25 games. As his development continues he’s going to need to cut down on his strikeouts a bit – he’s got 42 strikeouts thus far in 114 plate appearances.

    The Dominican Summer League began two weeks ago and the two Reds teams have played just eight and nine games, so the sample size is extremely limited, but one guy has really stood out at the dish among the group of players early on.

    Jaset Martinez, a 17-year-old left-handed hitting first baseman and right fielder (one game played here), signed out of Venezuela back in January. He’s begun his career by going 9-for-23 with six extra-base hits, nine walks, and just two strikeouts in eight games played. That’s led to a .391 batting average, a .576 on-base percentage, and a .783 slugging percentage. He’s hit the only home run so far this season for the DSL Rojos.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    23 Responses

      1. Because he threw like 30 pitches in the inning and the Reds pull guys at that point in the minor leagues.

    4. The scary thing about AA being the “ugly” is AAA would also be ugly if it weren’t for the AAAA players we’ve picked up to fill 90% of the roster.

      That means there’s not a lot of help coming, at least from an offensive side for the rest of the season, nor likely next season.

      It’s one reason I want Stewart, Rodriguez, and maybe Allen II in AA asap. I’m more on the fence with Allen, but we need someone potentially available in 2025 that has a legitimate shot of being more than a role-player.

      1. While you are right about what’s not coming, it does ignore that CES and Marte are “coming to help” this season/next season.

        1. Sure, and McLain will likely be available next season, but the narrative in the offseason was how are we going to play all of these guys. Instead of figuring out how to get all of our guys in the lineup we are handing out everyday AB’s to AAAA players from game 1 of the season.

          Opening day 2025 if we are completely healthy, we will be completely fine. It might also be the 1st time we’ve been completely healthy to start a season since I can recall.

          If we take our time with the prospects, and that might be the smart thing to do, we really need to add a bat via trade now, and or a FA bat or two in the offseason.

        2. There is a good chance Marte, McClain, and one of Charlie Condon or Travis Bazzana will be in the 2025 lineup (although the draft pick likely not to start the season). We don’t need 3 ready to go prospects in AAA asap. Tread water, get healthy, make a shrewd move if the opportunity presents itself, but don’t panic and force something. Hopefully, we can move Candelario to the primary DH role next season.

          1. Mclain, 2B
          2. EDLC, SS
          3. Candelario, DH
          4. Condon, RF
          5. Marte, 3B
          6. Steer, LF
          7. Stephenson, C
          8. CES, 1B
          9. TJ Friedl, CF

        3. I think Duke’s assessment is interesting. The only things I question are CES and the timeline.

          There is always the possibility that CES is just not as good we thought. In terms of the time line, I think it is off by 6 months to a year. Although, McLain will be on the field next season, I think it will be a full season before he is back to where he was before shoulder surgery.

          I think the front office will pursue an outfielder and a Starting pitcher again this winter. I think it’s unlikely they will sign a top shelf starting pitcher thru free agency, but may be able to land a decent outfielder.

          The Reds will have some money to spend assuming Montas, Pagan and Martinez decided to move on.

      2. Well, I did say AA asap, not AAA asap. I also wouldn’t count on a draft pick to be in our opening day lineup either.

        Most fans made that same mistake with Lowder last offseason.

        Treading water is what we’ve been doing since 2020, at some point it would be nice to swim towards something.

        1. I doubt anyone they draft this year will be ready in 2025 or 2026. It’s just not a typical way this works unfortunately. The Bob Horner and Mike Leake trajectory are extremely rare.

        2. I think Bazzana and Condon are both going to move quickly. I wouldn’t be shocked if Kurtz moved quick too.

    5. We’re nearing the point of the season where front offices will be self-evaluating and determining who they would potentially include in a trade. You have to think the Reds will be buyers with designs on the playoffs, and while my first inclination is to increase payroll in the form of an impending free agent or salary dump, I would absolutely be willing to deal prospects to secure a move-the-needle controllable player. My untouchables are just Lowder, Marte, Arroyo, and Petty. I’d have to be blown away to part with Duno, Stewart, or Maxwell.

    6. Given how early the complex leagues started and will end this year, i think it may be interesting to see what movement there is between rookie leagues and Lo-A, especially factoring in the draft and the kids who sign quickly. I mean, where do they go?

      I know there are typically a handful of kids released but still. The amount of available roster spaces has contracted here in the states, and then we are looking at up to 20 more players.

      There have been things written lately linking the decline in both minor league pitching and hitting with the necessity of promoting kids to full season ball before they are ready.

      Even still, last year, the Reds were decisive in releasing high end signees, Minier and Treana, so i have to think Valdez and others just not making the grade or who are filler may not be far behind. There just isn’t room.

      That said, i wish MiLB would initiate a late summer league for lower level kids and draftees modeled after and prior to the AZ Fall League. All of the infrastructure, human and otherwise would be in place, coaches, players, umps. Or maybe a pseudo instructional league. The late draft has done a number on the fan side of things, wanting to see the draftees play a short season.

      1. I’d bet almost all draft picks don’t “go” anywhere. They’ll probably all go to Arizona and play in an informal league put together by the clubs once the regular season ends. There’s been talk of that happening.

        1. That’s interesting. I’d say, why not formalize it, but i know better. Cost. But a Rookie Draft League would be cool, maybe supplemented by a handful of kids recovering from injuries or even a few complex league kids.

    7. Any chance the reds go after crochet? I see at least it taking a 4:1 trade. Would collier, Phillips, Jorge and hinds cut it? Crochet may not save reds this yr. But would make a formidable top 3 (along w Greene and Lodolo)for next yr

      1. Can’t save this season? We’re literally 1 game out of the wild card, and all sort of weirdness can happen in the postseason. Matre will be back soon (although not available for the post season), it’s possible Mclain could be back later in the year.

        1. I say he can’t save this season because he will most likely reach an innings limit shortly here soon

    8. The ugly is Chattanooga team and the good is the guys in ACL , so … and what’s the bad?

      1. Also the Chattanooga team, but specifically their pitching staff. I did have to reread a bit after my first readthrough to figure that out.

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