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    2025 Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects: 6-10

    Doug Gray 24

    Another day and another five spots on the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospects List to check out today. Each day this week we will unveil five new spots on the list, working our way through the best 25 prospects in the organization. If you were supporting the site on Patreon then you would have already been able to see the entire Top 25 list a week ago and had early access to this and plenty of other benefits throughout the year. Click here to see what all you can get for helping keep the site alive and kicking via support through Patreon.

    These write ups will not feature full scouting reports. Those will be included with the Season Reviews, which will start next week – first working my way through the Top 25 prospects before then branching out into another 25-50 interesting prospects through the remainder of the offseason.

    *To be eligible for the list a player must have 2025 Rookie of the Year eligibility (Fewer than 130 at bats in the big leagues, fewer than 50 innings pitched, or less than 45 days on the active MLB roster)*

    All ages listed are as of April 1st, 2025

    6. Cam Collier | 3B | Age: 20

    2024 Team: Dayton | Acquired: 1st Round (2022 Draft) | Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 220 lbs | B/T: L/R

    What to like: As one of the youngest players in the Midwest League he put up an above-average offensive performance. He’s got a lot of power potential and showed big in-game power for a teenager.

    What he needs to improve on: Consistency. During the year he had two very big months, one good month, and two bad months.

    Video

    2024 Stats

    7. Sal Stewart | 2B/3B | Age: 21

    2024 Team: Dayton | Acquired: 1st Round (2022 Draft) | Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 226 lbs | B/T: R/R

    What to like: He has one of the best plate approaches in the organization and walks nearly as often as he strikes out. He’s got a potentially above-average offensive profile and in 2024 he showed a step forward in his athleticism.

    What he needs to work on: There’s still some question about where he winds up on the defensive spectrum and about how his body develops as he ages – something he will have to stay on top of.

    Video

    Stats

    8. Sammy Stafura | SS | Age: 20

    2024 Team: ACL Reds & Daytona | Acquired: 2nd round, 2023 Draft | Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 188 lbs | B/T: R/R

    What to like: He’s one of the more athletic players in the organization. Defensively he can stick up the middle and play shortstop. Offensively he can do a little bit of everything and seems to have a good eye at the plate.

    What he needs to work on: Stafura struggled in 2024 against lefties. The sample size was small – just 76 plate appearances – but he was much better against righties last season.

    Video

    Stats

    9. Ricardo Cabrera | 3B | Age: 20

    2024 Team: Daytona | Acquired: International FA (2022) | Height: 6′ 0″ | Weight: 201 lbs | B/T: R/R

    What to like: On the surface it may have looked like Cabrera was only so-so this season, but among players with 400 plate appearances in the Florida State League he had the second highest average and was 4th in OPS.

    What he needs to work on: Defense. After beginning the season at shortstop where he had an .879 fielding percentage in 17 games, he slid over to both second and third base in May. While he made errors at a lower rate at those two spots, he still posted a .920 and a .910 fielding percentage at each of them.

    Video

    Stats

    10. Hector Rodriguez | OF | Age: 21

    2024 Team: Dayton | Acquired: Trade (Mets, 2022) | Height: 5′ 8″ | Weight: 187 lbs | B/T: L/R

    What to like: What stands out the most for Rodriguez is his ability to make contact. But he also has enough pop in hit bat to keep pitchers honest, has above-average speed, and he’s hit for a good average everywhere he’s ever been.

    What he needs to work on: Being a bit more selective at the plate. While he has a strong ability to barrel the baseball, if he were a little more picky about what he swings at it’s likely he’d get more out of his bat-to-ball skills.

    Video

    Stats

    Click here to see the other parts of this series.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    24 Responses

    2. We’re not too far off on HRod, I have him at 13 as opposed to 10. I ding him a little bit for the walk rate (his OBP is terribly avg dependent), and while he has decent pop he also probably ends up in a corner OF spot (he did get the occasional start in CF but didn’t look as good as Jorge/Allen/O’Donnell). His .274 avg in 2024 wasn’t overly drug down by luck as his BABIP was still .297, it just wasn’t up around .340-.350 like it had been in previous years. Seems like he struggled to make as much good contact against more advanced pitching.

      Cabrera just missed my top 10 (I had him at 11) so we aren’t far off here either. He’s another one that may end up in a corner OF spot unless he can take a serious step forward with the glove. I think they should let him focus entirely on 3B in Dayton in 2025 and see if that consistency in location can help lead to more consistency in results defensively.

      We’re dead on for Stafura at #8. Like so many in the Reds org, he needs to cut the K rate down some, but his plus defense at SS, overall athleticism, showing solid developing power, and his excellent walk rate make him a prospect to be excited about. If he can hit for more average and lower the K rate in 2025, he’s going to shoot up prospect lists in a hurry. The excellent walk rate and plus speed don’t make him as dependent on hitting for average though.

      I’ll lump Collier and Stewart together as I have them also back to back, but I have them both as top 5 with Stewart at 3 and Collier at 4. Collier showed his tremendous upside in August. If he can become that consistently, he’s a MVP candidate, even at 1B. He’ll only be 20 in 2025, and he made solid progress in 2024, especially in his walk rate. Stewart is the IF Jesse Winker. Excellent plate approach, developing power that I think could settle into being annual 20ish or so HR, doubles machine, but he’s a better athlete than Winker. Stewart was surprisingly good at 2B (I thought he was better than Acosta) and I think he could end up as the Reds solution at 3B in the next couple years if Marte can’t get it together.

    4. I’m big on HotRod, I think he’ll be 4th OF, maybe even a starting OF at some point in 2026.

      I really like this group of 5, but obviously I should since we are getting near to the top of the list.

      My brain must not be functioning right now, because I can only think of 4 guys who should be left at the top.

          1. Yeah – Floyd didn’t make the cut. I trust shoulder injuries with pitchers as much as “they” say you should trust a fart.

        2. Floyd is going to go about 2 years in between in game pitches and has never thrown an inning as a pro.

    5. This range is where organizations that win consistently (er, those who don’t pay the luxury tax) graduate players who can make solid contributions. Looks like the Reds might have 3 potential everyday guys here.
      I have Stewart leading this group as his approach carries a lot more certainty day in day out. He’s exactly the kind of hitter the front office claims to wants more of and for good reason. Does he give Vinny Castilla vibes to anyone else?? Stafura is not far behind, love his all around game.
      Where I differ from most is Collier. I know some credit him for producing at a high level at such a young age, and yeah there’s a huge mental adjustment that comes with playing pro ball, but I don’t credit him as much given his pedigree and that fact that his body is fully filled out (a little too much imo). He’s as athletic as he’s ever going to be and having watched him at third, any position other than 1B is already problematic. In short, his value will likely be solely predicated on his offensive contributions. A bit risky….I wouldn’t hesitate to move him in a trade.
      I guess my ranking philosophy differs in that I value relievers with loud tools more than solid floor low ceiling tweeners like HRod. The way I see it, the probability of him making the bigs is incredibly small compared to Maxwell or Mey, who will be given every opportunity to reach the majors. Fair or not, that’s probably the reality.

      1. Sultan – agree with all of this, but one point – a while back I recall Doug discussing what “prospect” means, and IIRC it goes toward who has the potential for longest/productive MLB career. If I read this right, essentially look toward total career WAR.

        That may favor younger players who may have longer fair to good careers, than older types who may excel for a year or two in shorter careers. Hence, even if Collier doesn’t get perennial AS status, he could still become a 10+ year MLB DH with good Power/OBP production. That’s extremely valuable. The relievers may have fantastic single seasons, but aside from the superstars, they tend to settle in to wandering journeymen types constantly just below average and/or losing time to injury.

        Finally, really concur with your opening line and that this may include the 3 hitters described. It may be an AI task, but when was the last time the Reds had 3 prospects roughly the same age become productive MLB players? (Dayton’s 2007 was loaded). Point here is how it shows the huge hole in MiLB development of offensive talent for quite a while, which was acutely exposed most recently in Chattanooga last season.

      2. HRod loves it, though. He had 160 PAs in the Dominican league last winter and already 39 this winter. It’s hard to coach desire.

        HRod, in fact, has more all-level PAs as he enters his age 21 season than Rece Hinds has entering his age 24 season. That is why I am an outlier on Hinds, who lost the covid year and then much of 2021 and 2022 with injuries. His weaknesses are well known, but he is still very inexperienced for his age, and he’s played the last two years at a higher level than he really belonged.

      3. History disagrees with you Sultan.

        10 RP made Doug’s top 25 from 2007 YE – 2019 YE.

        These 10 pitchers (Jimmy Herget, Joel Kuhnel, Ryan Hendrix, Zack Weiss, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola, Scott Carroll, Zach Stewart and Donnie Joseph) combined for a career WAR of 1.2. Herget led the way with a career WAR of 1.6. The other nine combined for a career war less than 0.

        Please note this excludes hitters who made Doug’s top 25 as SP but became RP in the pros. This list would include Chapman, Lorenzen, Garrett, Santillan and Iglesias.

        I am not saying Mey and Maxwell will not make it. But like Hector Rodriguez they have a serious weakness. Their inability to consistently throw strikes in the minors will multiply in the majors. Most RP in the majors were SP in the minors.

        Six hitters ranked in the 6-10 range per Doug from 2010 – 2019 flamed out: Mauirel Bautista, Shed Long, Taylor Trammell, Aristides Aquino, Dave Sappelt and Neftali Soto

        Eight hitters ranked in the 6-10 range per Doug from 2010 – 2019: India, Jose Siri, Tyler Stephenson, Didi Gregorius, Zack Cozart, Yasmani Grandal, Juan Francisco

        Four are undetermined: Mike Siani, Stuart Fairchild, Rece Hinds and Callihan.

        About a 50% success rate for hitters in Doug’s 6-10 range and a 0% success rate for RP Doug ranks in his top 25.

        1. Good post Stock. Yeah, I’m not advocating ranking relief pitchers higher than first round picks or big dollar Latin American signings, but rather the Sappelt/Aquino/Soto/HRod types…..guys who have significant skill deficiencies but above average athleticism. Among those types I’m choosing the big armed relievers…..and I would like to point out one you didn’t mention—Alexis Diaz. I don’t see that he ever cracked Doug’s top 25, yet has 5.2 WAR and an All-Star selection to his name. If you compare his journey to Maxwell and Mey, the similarities are compelling.

        2. I didn’t forget Diaz. Doug never ranked him. Maxwell and Mey have bigger stuff than Diaz. But Diaz never walked more than 4.4/9 in the minors and never less than that in the majors. His BB/9 went up as expected.

          Mey has never walked less than 6.35/9 and Maxwell 5.26/9. If these BB/9 rates go up as expected then they won’t make it in the majors. They must improve their control if they want to have a WAR greater than 2 in the majors. Until they do this I don’t see them as top 20 prospects. I am hoping Mey figured something out in AZ. That is why I have him in my top 25 and not Maxwell. If Mey can be under 4 for 2 months in 2025 then he soars up.

    6. Nice work Doug. Any thought of starting with #10 write up then working way down to #6? Feel like it builds more suspense.

    7. A fun list could be top 10 prospects with the best chance to effect the Reds in 2025. They wouldn’t necessarily be on the top 25, just minor leaguers who have the best lane to a roster spot for the Reds this year.

      1. Another thing I was pondering yesterday is the starting all prospect team, looking into a crystal ball.

        This is my first draft.

        1B Collier, Stewart
        2B Stewart, Stovall
        SS Arroyo, Balcazar
        3B Lewis, Staffer
        C Duno, Burns
        LF HRod, Allen
        CF Stafura, Jorge
        RF O’Donnell, Confidan
        Ult Callihan, Johnson

        SP Lowder, Burns, Petty, Aguiar, Holman
        RP Mey, Maxwell, Serwinoski, Phillips, Hollan, Miller, TrSmith, Cardona, Franco et al.

        2. Looks good. I think there should be a spot for Lorant somewhere on the pitching staff. Maybe for Aquiar since he’s on the couch for a year.

        3. @Dave, Here we go

          C *Duno / *Burns
          DH Cabrera / *Callihan
          1B *Collier / Callihan
          2B Stafura / Callihan
          3B Stewart / Balcazar
          SS *Arroyo / *Balcazar
          RF Lewis / Rodriguez
          CF Lin / Rodriguez
          LF O’Donnell / Rodriguez

          SP *Burns, *Petty, *Holman, Serwinski, Lorant
          BP *Mey, *Maxwell, *Miller, Moore
          BP *Smith, Sikkema, Laureno, Fransen

          I removed any MLB experience or SP Lowder, and RP Richardson would be on the list

    8. Wow! Taylor Trammell and Shed Long and Jeter Downs were supposed to good MLB players. I can’t believe all those guys are like 27+. Wonder what happened with development…

      1. Baseball is incredibly difficult.

        Top 100 prospect lists are filled with guys who had several cups of coffee and never more than that. And those guys are full of ones who hit all throughout the minors and ones who didn’t really hit but were “big tool” types. Pitchers are a different story because injuries there have derailed so many guys. That happens with position players, too, but it’s not nearly as common.

        1. Oddly, too, the massive amount of pitching injuries probably provides greater opportunity to guys who are one or more clicks below ML average

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