Home
    Articles
    Cam Collier (Photo: Doug Gray)
    Photo: Doug Gray

    Cincinnati Reds #6 Prospect: Cam Collier – Third Baseman

    Doug Gray 35

    After having a solid season in Daytona in the 2023 season, the Cincinnati Reds promoted Cam Collier up to High-A Dayton to join the Dragons in 2024. He was just one of four teenagers to play the entire season in the Midwest League and was easily the best hitter among that group.

    This article was first sent out to those who support the site over on Patreon. Early access is one of the perks that you could get be joining up as a Patron and supporting the work done here at RedsMinorLeagues.com.

    The season got out to a hot start for Cam Collier. He began the year with a 9-game hitting streak for Dayton that included three home runs. While his hitting streak ended on April 17th, he came back the next day and clubbed two home runs to start another tear for the next three weeks.

    One month in, Collier was hitting .314/.360/.588 with seven home runs. Then things shut down at the plate for the then 19-year-old. From May 7th through May 23rd, Collier went 3-53 with two walks and 20 strikeouts in 14 games. He broke out of the slump on the 25th, going 1-4 and then picked up four hits the next day that included a double and a home run. While things were going better after the big slump, that 4-hit day was the only multi-hit day he had until June 15th.

    Things continued to be slow for much of the next month-and-a-half as he hit .205/.336/.328 from May 29th through July 9th. He would end the unofficial first half of the season by going 2-4 with a double against South Bend on July 11th before a week off for the All-Star break.

    The hitting didn’t pick up immediately with the start of the second half as he went 2-17 in the first give games back. But on July 25th he would go 2-4 against Fort Wayne and things began to get back on track for Collier. Over the next month he would hit .380/.532/.709 with 25 walks and just 18 strikeouts in a 25-game stretch. Things slowed back down over the final two-and-a-half weeks as he went into a slump and went 7-45 to round out the season.

    For all 2024 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

    Cam Collier Scouting Report

    Position: Third Base | B/T: L/R

    Height: 6′ 1″ | Weight: 210 lbs. | Acquired: 1st Round (2022 Draft) | Born: November 20, 2004

    When Cam Collier was drafted back in 2022 he was considered a bat-first prospect. That’s still the case. While you may look at the surface numbers he’s put up and not see anything too impressive, it’s the context that is important. First, he’s been younger than just about anyone in the league he’s played in over the last two seasons.

    As noted at the top of this article, he was one of just four prospects in the Midwest League to be a teenager and spend the entire season in the league and among the group he was far and away the best hitter. No one else from that group could put up an OPS of .700 and he went out and put up a .798 OPS. That also comes in a league where the OPS was just .684. No only was he much better than league average, he did so while being among the youngest players in the league.

    With that said, it’s not as though there aren’t some reasons to be a tad hesitant. Consistency was a big issue for Collier in 2024. When he was hitting well, he was hitting really well. But when he wasn’t, he really, really wasn’t.

    Offensively there’s more power over hit for Collier. That’s not to suggest he won’t be able to hit for average in the future, but he’s got the potential for 30+ home runs in his bat. The ball carries when he makes good contact, and he’s capable already of hitting the ball out to any part of the field. For his age group he really stands out with how hard he hits the ball.

    He has hit just .251 in his minor league career and in 2024 he struck out 25% of the time. He’s going to have to make more contact than he has to this point if he’s going to get the most out of his hit-tool, which could be average down the line. Collier already uses the entire field, and in 2024 he was also able to start getting the ball elevated a bit more after having a very high ground ball rate in 2023.

    A mid-season adjustment helped him out in the second half. His 2-strike approach changed and he began to choke up and have a more contact oriented plan. After the All-Star break that helped him cut his strikeout rate from 26.3% to 22.4%, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio went from 2.8 to 1.2. He’s likely to find a lot more success at the plate if he can carry that forward with him in the future.

    Defensively there’s one area where Collier stands out. He’s got a very strong arm at third base. The problem is that he’s just not a good third baseman. His range is incredibly limited and almost everyone believes that he’s going to wind up at first base in the near future. If that happens, then his arm strength is mostly negated and his value as a defender takes a big hit with the slide across the diamond. That puts even more pressure on his bat to be above-average.

    The good news is that he’s got the potential to be a valuable hitter. There’s needed improvement in several areas at the plate, but he’s shown the ability to be a game-changing hitter for prolonged periods of time.

    Stats

    Spray Chart

    Video

    Interesting Stat on Cam Collier

    In 40 games played on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, Cam Collier hit .172/.278/.248. In his 79 games played on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, Collier hit .287/.393/.543.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

    Related Posts

    35 Responses

    2. Maybe they should try him in LF or maybe RF to utilize his throwing.
      Maybe better conditioning and more reps to turn him into a passable 3rd baseman.

    3. Lol – only a Reds fan thinks a 3rd basemen/ 1st Basemen can become an OF overnight. lol maybe its because Pete Rose moved around so much that we all just think anyone can move positions.

      1. Senzel was a pretty decent CF, Castellanos is a passable RF, so you don’t have to go back to Pete Rose to find examples of 3B’s becoming OFs. I do agree with the sentiment that corner infielders are usually not the best options to move to the OF. I also think Collier is a bit on the slow side RUN 45.

        I’d put Collier and Stewart into a 1B/3B platoon, similarly to how McLain, and EDLC platooned SS. We need backup options to CES, and Marte, and Collier and Stewart could become threats to them by some point in 2026.

        1. Good point. I forgot Castellanos was a 3rd basemen. And senzel has a short career and he slipped my mind completely.

      2. Reds fans think this possibly because it happens every year. Here is a list of players who played at least 20 games at 3B last year and at least 10 in the OF.

        Matt Vierling: 3B – 51, LF – 13, CF – 57, RF – 36
        Christopher Morel: 3B – 74, LF – 11
        Dylan Moore: 3B – 45, LF – 22, CF – 1
        Willi Castro: 3B – 27, LF – 34, CF – 30
        Jazz Chisholm: 3B – 45, CF – 97

        All but Morel played CF so projecting Collier in the OF is not really a reach.

        Others such as Brendan Donovan played both in the OF and at 3B but not necessarily enough for me to identify in my quick review.

        Also you have players such as Nick Castellanous, Jeff McNeil, Jurickson Profar, Tommy Edman, Taylor Ward and Lourdes Gurriel who played 3B (or 1B) earlier in thier careers but no longer do.

        Even others such as Cody Bellinger, Ryan O’hearn, Mike Toglia and Luke Raley played 1B (much less demanding than 3B) and OF last year.

        Finally another group played 3B in the minors but were moved to the OF as major league players either because of being blocked or not good enough defensively at 3B. This group includes Jordan Walker, Ceddanne Rafaela and probably many more.

        This is a list of about 20 names. I am quite certain that many current OF played 3B in the minors but I just did not follow them until they were ML OF.

        I have no doubt that SelltheteamBob is not reaching when he states a Collier move to the OF is a possibility. The Reds even played CES in the OF at least one game in the AFL.

        1. Rece Hinds was an infielder in high school and played 3B until 2022. He is now an excellent defensive right fielder. Moving positions (other than to SS and C) isn’t all that tough for the vast majority of these guys. They all have elite+ hand-eye coordination, and they’ve had a glove of some sort on their hand for thousands of hours.

          The only guy who I ever saw who could not play left field in this organization was Yonder Alonso, who played a handful of games in LF, particularly in Wrigley Field. The Reds called off the experiment to protect women and children. John Sadek would have been better.

          There’s no reason not to get him some LF reps this spring, on the back fields if not in a game, just to see how he likes it. Collier won’t care; he will do whatever gets him to Cincinnati the fastest, and he knows that his calling card will always be his bat.

        2. i guess i was way off and didn’t realize it happens as often as it does. Probably because i think of players like Castellanous, McNeil, Profar, Edman, and Gurriel in their current positions and not the one they played when they first came up.

        3. Eric Davis was a Shortstop. Billy Hamilton was a Shortstop.

          I’m certain Barry Larkin could play outfield, as well as Chris Sabo

    4. I wonder if Ryan Howard is a fair comp for Collier?

      One thing I have liked about Collier is that when he has gotten the opportunity for showcase games under big lights, he has shown out such as a HR and MVP in the futures game. I would love to see him take that next big step forward this year with his focus (consistency) and his routine (his body looks a bit out of shape and he showed up last year to spring training much heavier if I recall correctly.) Admittedly, those are nitpicky things, but I really think he has the tools to be a star in the future. IF Sal Stewart continues to progress I think we could have 2 very good players in the near future.

      1. No, it’s not a fair comp. Ryan Howard was a Hall of Fame caliber hitter in his prime and comping any prospect to that level is entirely unfair. His prime was short, but for four straight years he hit 45+ home runs and drove in 136+ runs.

        1. Fair enough Doug. Haha. I agree with you about a lot people forgetting how good Howard was.

      2. I am hoping Collier has a much better career than Ryan Howard. Howard’s stats look great for four years. The juiced ball really helped him. However, Howard’s career WAR outside his four great years was 3.2. His WAR after his age 29 season was 0.6. I am hoping for more from Collier.

        I am thinking Ryan Braun would be a great comp for a career ceiling wise. By the way to Ryan Braun also was a 3B converted to OF to give another example of a 3B converted to the OF.

        2. If Collier came up and hit like Howard till age 29 I’d take it in a second. That would be better than 99.9% of players projected from single A baseball.

        3. Would it be better than 99% of the players who began their age 20 season in AA or higher? I would think Howard’s career WAR is less than the mean of players who began their age 20 season in AA. Remember that Collier is nearly 2 years younger than Chase Burns.

          I probably over rate Collier but I think his over/under on career WAR is about 25.

    5. I remember the Reds were pretty lucky to pick Cam Collier up out of the top 10 from the draft, despite being ranked as #5 prospect that year. I think the lack of good hitters either at the major level and the farm system from the Reds gives more value to Cam Collier as a prospect to keep developing heading to the next 2 years.

      1. I was thinking 2024 would be his breakout season and it was to a degree but not a huge burst into the top 50 prospect category of breakout I was hoping for.

        I think that if he is working out hard this winter that 2025 could be that breakout. I know the jump from A+ to AA could temper the breakout but I think Collier being a top 50 prospect next winter is something he could attain.

    6. If either Collier or Stewart have good, not even great, MLB careers, the Reds will have done very well in that draft. If both do, they’ve done extremely well. If either or both exceed that . . .

    7. I can’t imagine anyone who has seen Collier play live thinking moving him to the OF would be a good idea. He’s a 1B/DH. Rece Hinds is significantly faster than Collier.

      2. I agree with Duke here. Collier does not have the flexibility and speed to be an outfielder. He is being players where he needs to be.

        He just needs to keep focusing on hitting, playing solid defense and becoming more consistent. Plenty of players have had decent careers with bad bodies. Prince Feilder & vlad Guerrero jr. come to mind. 2025 is a big year for him. After all, he will be all of 20 years old!

    8. Doug more than alludes to both Collier’s youth and his success making adjustments to the adjustments made against him.

      I think we can expand on that to include the work he did in Lo-A as well as in the offseason, notably getting the ball in the air more and thus more to his power.

      In coming out of the gate on fire and swatting home runs, Collier showed me he put in the offseason work to get to his in game power more.

      In struggling pretty mightily after the league caught up to him, Collier showed me he was 19 years of age playing in Hi-A. In effect, he was learning on the job, more so than many of his league peers (not to mention his teammates, HRod, Jorge, etc,, also younger.

      Part of his struggles also were possibly due to Collier needing to more successfully implement the offseason adjustments he made. Baseball being a game of failure and all that.

      Still, Collier showed that he can indeed make adjustments in season. That’s a good accomplishment for a 19 year old in Hi-A and, as Doug notes, was significantly better than his peers, including Ethan Salas.

      This, to me, says a main goal at the plate for Collier is to minimize the duration of struggles, so to become more consistent and reduce the chances of becoming a more streaky pro. More Joey, less Jay, if you get my drift.

      1. Agree with all this, and the big step this season in AA will be facing many more of the top prospect starting pitchers, and the adjustments to that. I know Doug, and others, often note the age vs. league comparisons, but it may be useful to refine that BRef search further by tracking the stats vs. age/draft-pick# of the opposing starter.

        In effect, since he’ll remain among the very youngest in the league, keeping stacking the analysis and keep forcing adjustments. Same with Stewart, and I suppose HRod.

        1. Keep pushing them up at a realistic pace and allow them to refine things more and more as they approach AAA and the ML’s. And, it’s not like the refinements end there. I do think the organization does a good job of identifying when guys are ‘major league ready.’ Unfortunately, as everywhere, some kids are asked to do more than they should due to injuries, etc., ie Dunn, Hinds and Hurtubise last season. But that’s what AAA will be for this year. especially Rece Hinds.

        2. Pete Rose was a 19 YO rookie 2B at Geneva NY (D League) in 1960.

          Tony Perez was a 19 YO second year 3B at Geneva NY (D League) in 1960.

          Cam Collier was a 19 YO third year 3B at Dayton OH (High A League) in 2024.

          19 YO is very young for baseball prospects.

        3. You are right oldtimer. But times were different then. It rarely happens now but both Bench and Gullett were in the majors at 19. Now it happens on occasion (Soto and Machado) but rarely are 19 year olds in the majors now.

    9. somewhat off topic re outfielder prospects now aging out in AAA. Nothing written on the possibility of either of the three Dunn, Hinds or Hurtubise even in the conversation for the majors.
      this thread like many includes the importance of hitters figuring things out, overcoming slumps, etc. All three mentioned above had very limited time with the Reds in 2024 and perhaps insufficient time to FTO.

      1. Hinds is still young enough. Dunn/Hurtubise have this season, at most, before it gets very doubtful they move beyond 5th OFer status.

        1. Dunn’s profile has generally been of a TJ Friedl, second division starter, 4th OF. I think he’s still right there, even bring older, as his development has had some big interruptions. He’s only had 952 career MiLB at bats in his four pro seasons, 458 in 2023.

          But he’s definitely a “when healthy” player to date. i find there’s a ton of guys whose bodies have to adapt to the grind of full season ball. Some do, many don’t. That’s where Dunn might be best suited as a 4th OF given his durability issues. MK also points out that Dunn’s all out, all the time style may need to adjust too.

        2. I would be surprised if Hurtubise makes it through the offseason and remains on the 40 man roster. He is probably the first player they would dfa if they needed a spot.

    10. Watching Collier up close all year I was happy with his progress. You could watch him make adjustments all season and as we know the successful hitters are willing to make adjustments as the competition makes adjustments to them. Didn’t seem to have a prima Dona attitude on the field which several high round picks have had. The other thing working against him at third base is the quality play of Sal Stewart.

      1. Sal’s footwork and glovework are far superior to Collier’s. I thought Sal looked better at 2B than Victor Acosta did as well. Sal’s a big dude, but he’s a very fluid athlete.

    11. I was thinking about what Grover said about how 99.9% of players would love to have a career similar to Howard. So I decided to do some research. I looked at all Rookies from 2014 and 2015. This included more than 450 players. I chose 2014 and 2015 because I wanted to go back 10 years. If I went back 20 years I felt much has changed. I will look at 2023 and 2024 next but obviously the WAR of these players will not be enough to give us a comp vs. Howard.

      My focus was on 20 year old players who started the season in AA or AAA and seeing how these players performed in comparison to Ryan Howard as a bogie. My thought was these players would easily average more than a 25 WAR. Here are the players I found from 2014 and 2015:

      8 players from 2014:

      Player/WAR
      Xander Bogaerts 40.8
      Rougned Odor 6.3
      Jose Ramirez 52.4
      Jonathan Schoop 19.5
      Jon Singleton -1.2
      Oscar Taveras -1.3
      Carlos Triunfel -0.9
      Taijuan Walker 11.2

      5 players from 2015

      Christian Bethancourt 1.1
      Carlos Correa 44.4
      Francisco Lindor 49.6
      Ketel Marte 31.2
      Domingo Santana 3.5

      Total WAR from the 13 players thus far: 256.6 for an average of 19.74

      This is right about where Ryan Howard was. But 8 of these players are still playing and should produce a WAR of about 25 for the next couple of years. By the time their career is over I expect these 8 players to add another 100 – 150 to this WAR total and finish safely in the 25 – 30 range on average. Only 6 of the 13 have a career WAR greater than Howard’s 19.4. Walker has a very outside shot at being number 7.

      Is it important to be a top 100 prospect at the end of your age 20 season?

      5 of the 13 players had a significant WAR. Ramirez, Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, and Marte. Correa was not a prospect after his age 20 season. Lindor (9) and Bogaerts (2) were top 10 prospects. Ramirez and Marte were still out of BA top 100. Correa was the #4 prospect after his age 19 season.

    Comments are closed.