In both 2022 and 2023, Julian Aguiar would spent time at two different levels in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. That’s the same thing that happened in 2024, except he also reached the big leagues at the end of the season this time.
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After making 11 starts with Chattanooga in the second half of 2023, Aguiar returned to Double-A to begin this past season and he had a solid start to the season. In his first three starts he allowed five runs in 14.2 innings (3.07 ERA), but his April came to an end when he allowed three runs in just 1.2 innings against Birmingham.
The right-hander rebounded from there. Over his next nine starts he threw at least 6.0 innings in seven of them and posted a 3.06 ERA for the Lookouts. With 13 starts in 2024 and another 11 with them the prior season, the Cincinnati Reds decided that Aguiar had shown enough at the level and promoted him to Triple-A.
In his first start for the Bats he faced off against Omaha and was charged with two unearned runs in 5.0 innings. Six days later he was on the road again and this time Toledo got the best of him, touchign him up for four runs in 4.0 innings. The following two starts went the way of Aguiar, though, as he allowed just one run in 11.0 innings against Indianapolis and St. Paul.
After the All-Star break the minor league season resumed Aguiar had two solid but unspectacular starts before running into Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The RailRiders scored seven runs in 4.1 innings against him on August 1st and walked more than they struck out in the contest. The next two outings went much better as he allowed two runs in each game that saw him pitch into the 6th inning and he walked just one batter with 11 strikeouts.
Cincinnati, in need of a starter, called Aguiar up to make his big league debut on August 19th. The righty allowed two runs in 4.0 innings in Toronto and then followed that up with another 2-run outing against Pittsburgh where he threw 6.0 innings.
In his first start at home in Cincinnati things didn’t go nearly as well. Oakland scored six runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings. Things didn’t go much better the next time around as Houston scored two runs against him and he didn’t get out of the 3rd inning. Hitting the road for his next two outings he found more success and allowed three runs in 11.0 innings between his time against the Mets and the Twins. On September 19th he returned to Cincinnati to face off against Atlanta and they scored seven runs in 4.0 innings against him.
That turned out to be his final start of the year as he was placed on the injured list with a sprained elbow. A few weeks later he opted for Tommy John surgery.
For all 2024 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).
Julian Aguiar Scouting Report
Position: Right-handed pitcher | B/T: L/R
Height: 6′ 3″ | Weight: 180 lbs. | Acquired: 12th Round (2021 Draft) | Born: June 4, 2001
Fastball | He will thrown both a 4-seamer and a 2-seamer and they both show above-average velocity and averaged nearly 95 MPH in 2024.
Slider | An average to slightly above-average offering that works in the low 80’s.
Change Up | An above-average pitch that flashes plus at times.
Curveball | A solid-average offering that works in the upper 70’s.
When he was drafted, Julian Aguiar didn’t throw quite as hard as he does now. While not known as a hard thrower, Aguiar hit 100 MPH while in Double-A early in 2024. During his time in Triple-A and MLB, though, he didn’t quite reach 97 as he topped out at 96.7.
In the big leagues this year, hitters found plenty of success against his fastball – slugging over .525 against both the 2-seamer and 4-seamer. He almost never throws his 2-seamer to lefties, but he mixes the two fastballs well against right-handed hitters. The curveball is never thrown to righties, while the slider is rarely thrown to lefties. While he uses his change up to both groups it’s thrown to lefties three times as often. He can mix and match things up, but depending on which batters box the hitter is in will determine which part of the arsenal the hitter is likely to see.
In the minor leagues, Aguiar showed outstanding control. During the 2024 season, though, he didn’t put hitters away like he had in the past as his strikeout rate dipped below double-digits per 9-innings pitched for the first time in his career and the drop off was larger as he had just 7.3 strikeouts per 9-innings in his time between Double-A and Triple-A.
After reaching the big leagues late in the season it was more of the same. Big league hitters only struck out 5.4 times per 9-innings against Aguiar. His control also took a step back as he walked 12 batters and hit five others in just 31.2 innings. Perhaps that was a sign of things to come as following the end of the regular season, Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery.
While most pitchers return just fine from their first Tommy John surgery, it’s not a given for everyone. Aguiar is going to miss the entire 2025 season. When he returns to the mound in 2026 he will still be 24-years-old, so there’s plenty of time on his side with regards to his future prospects.
But when he does return to the mound he’s going to have to figure out what he needs to do in order to take that next step that will help him put big league hitters away more frequently. He’s got a quality arsenal to work with that profiles as a starting pitcher, but if he can’t put away hitters more as a starter, a move to the bullpen could be another option that could allow him to focus his repertoire more and perhaps find a little extra velocity as he doesn’t have to pace himself quite as much.
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Interesting Stat on Julian Aguiar
While in the minor leagues in 2024 he made three starts on Thursday. In those games he had an ERA of 10.64. His ERA in games pitched every other day of the week was 3.08.