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    Cincinnati Reds prospect Leo Balcazar has a big day in the AFL

    Doug Gray 16

    On Saturday evening there were four Cincinnati Reds prospect in the starting lineup for the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League. Rhett Lowder was on the mound and his battery mate was Alfredo Duno. Cam Collier was over at first base and Leo Balcazar was at shortstop.

    There’s a lot to write about from this game, but we’re going to start out with Leo Balcazar’s big day at the plate. Hitting 5th in the lineup, Balcazar went 4-5 with a double, stolen base, three runs scored, and he drove in two runs. Those four hits raised his average up to .385 through his 13 games played. He now has four doubles, 11 runs scored, nine runs batted in, and four steals. The infielder’s OPS jumped to .901 after the game was over.

    Balcazar has a hit in all but one game he’s played in Arizona. His 20 hits easily lead the league. The two players tied for second place in the league are sitting at 16 hits on the year. His four doubles are tied for third in the league. That .385 average he’s put up so far is tied for fifth in the league.

    On the other side of news, there’s some not great news that came from this game. Alfredo Duno caught the 1st inning, but in the top of the 2nd inning when he was due to hit a pinch hitter took over for him. When the inning was over he walked down to the clubhouse with his bag in hand according to the broadcasters (the clubhouse is not connected to the dugout at this ballpark). There was no indication of any injury while he was behind the plate in the 1st. That will be worth keeping an eye on over the next few days. Update: Alfredo Duno is back in the lineup on Sunday, serving as the team’s designated hitter.

    Rhett Lowder was solid, but had some struggles at times. He allowed the first three batters of the game to reach base safely and one of those runners scored. It was the only run he allowed as he retired the next six in a row to complete his outing. It was the third outing in a row in which he threw 2.0 innings and allowed two hits. Lowder hit the second batter of the game, but walked no one. Still, he was struggling a bit with his control and his ability to put hitters away as he threw 46 pitches in his 2.0 innings of work. He only had one strikeout while facing nine batters.

    Cam Collier went 1-6 on the day, scoring a run and driving in a run. His lone hit of the day came off of the bat at 112.6 MPH. He also grounded out at 108.1 MPH. He’s put 27 balls in play in Arizona. 10 of them have been 102.8 MPH or higher off of the bat.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    16 Responses

    2. I’ve watched some of his Fall League games and he really seems to be a “player”. McLain better use the 1st half next year to get his offense together or Leo could ascend to the Reds after the all-star break.

    4. As I recall, Balcazar came out of the gate hot in 2023 and then pffffffffft –was suddenly out for the season.

    5. We could actually be back to SS overload. EDLC snagged the position, McLain got pushed to 2B, Marte to 3B, and now RF.

      Now we have Arroyo likely starting in AAA, and Balcazar in AA.

      It’s time to think of CF. I personally like EDLC as the guy, but if not him then can Arroyo be the guy? He doesn’t have EDLC’s elite speed, and arm, but he has enough of both to play CF.

      There’s the benefit of him still being in the minors, so he can learn the position in a less intense environment. Is Arroyo more valuable as the infield reserve or as a starting CF.

      Mix up EDLC, Arroyo, McLain, and Marte any way you want, but they should all be starters once Arroyo joins the group.

      Balcazar is just a season away, and he seems to profile more as a reserve than Arroyo does.

      1. Balcazar is playing third in the AFL. Be curious if that was at the Reds direction or just what was needed on that team in Arizona.

        Wonder if the Res move him to second in the spring to put pressure on McLain? Although Leo is still probably 2027 to make MLB (if all goes as planned).

        1. Balcazar has played 3 games each at short and second, and 7 at third. He’s mostly played SS for the Reds in the minors, but has also played 60-something games at 2B and started a mere 3 games at 3B. I don’t think we can read much into his usage in Arizona.

          He’s going to need to get his SLG up to his pre-injury numbers to be considered a top prospect. He’s showing that so far in Arizona. He will be 22 in June, so he has time.

      2. Right now, both Arroyo and Balcazar are both profiling more as utility or glove first players given their 2025 hitting, slugging in particular.

        My take is both would need their pre-injury and/or career batting lines to re-emerge, and they might, before they are seen as more right now.

        2025
        Arroyo: .284/.345/.371
        Balcazar: .263/.339/.381

        Career
        Arroyo: .273/.344/.423
        Balcazar: .273/.341/.403

        I’ve been optimistic about Arroyo, in particular, moving in for McLain should he continue to struggle or be better suited as a utility player. But he (Arroyo) has to get back to better power.

        I’d say this precludes moving Arroyo to CF in order to get his bat in the lineup (It’s been pointed out to me the lack of slugging might even preclude a move to starter at 2B).

        That said, 2026 will tell us a lot about whether their bats get back to their more promising years, especially for Arroyo coming back from his shoulder injury. IMO, there were flashes of that with both, just not quite getting over the top. And Balcazar had a career high in HR’s this year, two season’s after a torn ACL, which also impacts power.

        At ages 22 and 21.6 years, there is plenty of time and quite a bit of talent. And, as we’ve discussed, at a minimum, it is easy to see them as tandem backup infielders very soon.

        1. Great read, well organized, I agree.

          Arroyo in particular is going to need a big step forward this year in hit tool or a re-emergence in power, one or the other, to get beyond the utility profile.

        2. I do have confidence in Arroyo’s ability as, in his best month, he was just stinging line drives all over, especially from the left side. I was hoping he’d get to the next step that he’d shown in Dayton, where he was yanking a few over the RF fence. I do consider his 2025 a success given he equaled his 2023 games played and plate appearances coming off the shoulder injury, and he got his hits. His speed will give him doubles and triples if he can just get back to a bit more power. He’s pretty gifted defensively, more smooth and reliable than spectacular.

        3. I do agree Arroyo needs his power to return. I wouldn’t even care what we do with Arroyo if his power doesn’t show up again, because he’d be at most a reserve.

          Like I said, I’d much rather have EDLC in CF, but if not him, then who? Friedl had a .378 SLG, Dunn, and Hinds didn’t adjust to MLB pitching. Any of the 3 could have a good 2026, but we are just hoping at this point.

          Arroyo is a much better prospect than any of those 3 ever were. He’s the guy I’d put my money on to be successful.

          As far as the position change, if EDLC is locked in at SS, and despite leading baseball in errors again, it seems as if he is, then why wouldn’t you move your excess SS to a position of need? We did it with McLain, and Marte, Arroyo should be next.

        4. Re: Why not move Arroyo now/out of an excess of shortstops?

          Right now, Arroyo’s bat doesn’t support a change of position, as the one and only reason to move a plus defender would be to get his bat in the lineup. But his bat doesn’t qualify.

          So, you’d be giving up his plus defense to go play a position where he’s never played and there is no evidence he’d be nearly as good as he is currently, with a bat that doesn’t support getting in the everyday lineup. It doesn’t add up for Arroyo.

          Whereas, with McLain, Marte, Stewart, HRod, possibly Collier, their bats do support a position change in order to get them in the lineup and, with all but McLain, out of positions of where they are defensive liabilities. A move of Arroyo to the OF would amount to inserting a light hitting player to meet an offensive need. As i said, it’s been pointed out here that even a move to 2B, where his defensive value would increase even more, might not play due to the current state of his bat.

          Second, we don’t really have an excess of known, proven ML shortstops, particularly in the three upper minor levels. For Hi-A, AA, and AAA, we have just two shortstops, Arroyo and Balcazar, and the latter’s drop off in range post ACL injury might not qualify him as a starting level defensive ML short stop. Call it 1.5 short stops for the three upper levels.

          Because the organization is actively placing a premium on improved infield defense (playing McLain, trading for Hayes), and Arroyo currently being the second best defensive short stop in the organization, he is probably the last player they’d convert to CF.

          I just wouldn’t fix too much on moving Arroyo to the outfield. His best value as an asset to the organization is as a short stop, then 2B or 3B. If he doesn’t regain his power, he’s a quality, homegrown (read inexpensive) utility player. If he does regain his power, he is a very solid alternative to EDLC at short and, especially, McLain, or a quality trade chip, much before a converted OF.

          I just keep saying, if we need an Of, a CF in particular, just go out and get an OF. The Reds over-rely on playing musical chairs, to the degree where, when they repeat over and over, that moves like Marte to RF or Martinez to the bullpen are just as good as acquiring a RF or a bullpen arm becomes a con.

          In fact, these moves do not add to the roster one bit. They merely re-arrange it. Actually acquiring a RF or a bullpen piece would increase depth — we’d have both Marte and Martinez as well as the new RF and reliever.

        5. @Dave, I understand your viewpoint. I really don’t want to move Arroyo to CF, I want to move EDLC to CF. Arroyo is the back up plan.

          I’m know most people’s feelings on moving EDLC, and that’s why I didn’t focus on it.

          I’m trying to live in the world where EDLC is fixed at SS. There are typically 3 positions where offense is sacrificed for defense. C, SS, and CF.

          We have an obsession with acquiring SS’s, and SP with all of our top picks lately, and that puts us into the position that we are facing today.

          If Krall would have got Kurtz like I begged, we wouldn’t be crying for a power bat in the lineup. So to fix the VERY lopsided pipeline, and Reds roster SS’s need to be converted or traded for positions of need. Pitchers will need to be traded as well for positions of need.

          Arroyo to CF is attempt to convert, I’m more than happy finding a trade that brings in a CF.

    6. Just a quick update – I was hoping to have the 2025 MiLB All-Star team posted this morning. But then yesterday got away from me thanks to an attack on the site from hackers that took a lot of time to get almost nowhere. And then there was a semi-home emergency that required immediate attention to take care of and it left me with about a third of the piece written and it’s now 5:24am and I’m going to try and sleep.

      All-Star team and the various individual awards are coming this week/next week. Then the plan is to start the Rule 5 draft stuff. That will lead into the new Top 25 Prospect list, which will go 5-players per day from the 10th through the 14th.

        1. I was able to watch/listen to most of the game while dealing with the house issue thanks to having a TV in most rooms of the house. I think I only missed one of the extra innings and then just a few at-bats/pitches here and there.

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