When the Cincinnati Reds traded for Jose Peraza last offseason there were varying opinions on exactly what he could become. After being traded twice in the previous year, some scouts were suggesting that he was more of a utility player than an every day player. Statistical analysis was also all over the place. His low walk rate and low power output left many concerned that he would struggle to hit enough to be an every day player.
Fast forward nine months and he’s played roughly 40% of a big league season with the Cincinnati Reds (218 plate appearances) and he’s hitting .327/.349/.423 to go with five walks and 29 strikeouts. He’s also stolen 16 bases (and has been caught seven times) and he’s played all over the field. He’s played 23 games at shortstop, 13 games in center, 12 games at second and eight games in left field. He’s also managed to get one start as the designated hitter. While his overall line has been good, it’s been even better since he’s been given a chance to play every day. I wrote about his hot start after his most recent call up nearly a month ago. He’s kept that going. Since being recalled on August 20th he has hit .383/.392/.525 in 31 games and 125 plate appearances.
At the plate, things have gone better than expected for Jose Peraza. He is a 22-year-old that’s hitting .327. The season isn’t over yet, but over the last 10 years there have been all of three players that were 22-years-old or younger that have bested a .327 average with at least 200 plate appearances. Matt Kemp (.342), Pablo Sandoval (.330) and Bryce Harper (.330). That’s it. Now, of course there is more to providing offensive value than hitting for average, but that’s likely to be the place where Jose Peraza sets up both his on-base percentage and his slugging percentage – with a good base average.
There are some things that need to be improved upon. Peraza is currently sporting a walk rate of 2.3% and that’s incredibly difficult to make work over the long haul. He does have some leeway by being a high contact hitter, but either his walk rate or strikeout rate will need to improve moving forward if he’s going to continue being a successful hitter. His walk rate in Triple-A this season was nearly three times as high, so there’s certainly a reason to believe that he could improve the walk rate. Add in that he’s just 22-years-old and there’s even more reason to think he could improve on those.
It’s not likely that he’s a future .320+ hitter, there are very, very few of those players in the history of baseball. Right now, Peraza has a batting average on balls in play of .365, and well, that’s highly unlikely to remain that high. However, he does profile as a player who could have a higher than normal batting average on balls in play. He’s fast, which can help leg out a few extra infield hits. He also uses the entire field, which tends to help out as well because it makes it tougher for defenses to shift into better positions to take away hits.
The Cincinnati Reds have a guy, who looking toward the 2017 season, projects to hit for a good average, can play defense up the middle, can run the bases well and it going to be 23-years-old with big league success under his belt. The problem is, if everyone on the 40-man roster is healthy heading into the season, there may not be a place to play Jose Peraza. At shortstop, Zack Cozart has the job. At second base, Brandon Phillips has the job. In center field, Billy Hamilton has the job.
Last offseason the team tried to trade Phillips multiple times but couldn’t get anything done without his approval and he simply didn’t allow it to happen. While he’s having a good season once again in 2016, he had a good 2015 and couldn’t talk a team into signing him to an extension this past offseason, so there’s not much reason to believe that a team would consider doing so this offseason. Hamilton is cheap and productive, so there’s no reason at all to think about moving him unless someone wants to offer you something crazy in a trade for him. That leaves Zack Cozart. He had a strong first half, but his second half has been injury plagued as he’s suffered through issues with his surgically repaired knee and his production went into the proverbial toilet (.233/.291/.312 in 173 plate appearances) before he was basically put on the bench for the rest of the season after the first week of September.
The knee issue, combined with the very poor second half could make it tough to trade Zack Cozart this offseason. He’s going to still be rather cheap, all things considered, but that may not be enough to entice a team to actively try to acquire him.
There’s not much left for Jose Peraza to do in Triple-A and he seems very ready for an every day gig in the big leagues. The Reds must have a plan to get him into the every day lineup, and preferrably at one position instead of using him at shortstop, second base, center field and left field in some strange rotation. While that’s not the worst plan ever, it’s not a great one either.