Looking at some Statcast data for Reds pitching prospects

With two months in the books it seemed like a good time to take a look at some of the available Statcast data for the Cincinnati Reds pitching prospects. We only have data for Triple-A and for Single-A Daytona’s road games. While it would be great to have data for every team I remember the days of having radar readings that were off by 4-5 MPH because of where the gun was located at, so I’m not sure that I should complain at all.

If you just want to see the raw data, scroll to the bottom and have at it. But I would like to talk about some individual pitch types and pitchers before getting to all of that.

The 4-Seam Fastball

When it comes to the fastball the thing everyone looks at first is how fast it was. It likely comes as no surprise to you that Zach Maxwell is leading the way among the 31 pitchers we’ve got data on. The right-handed reliever has thrown 52 fastballs with Louisville since joining the club and he’s averaging 98.8 MPH. That’s 1.9 MPH better than Tony Santillan, who is next best on the list at 96.9 MPH. Among the starting pitchers it’s Connor Phillips leading the way at 96.4 MPH. Lyon Richardson is next among the starters at 95.1 MPH.

But velocity isn’t everything. Being deceptive with your delivery can help. Movement can help. Sequencing your pitches can help. We’ve got information on each pitchers whiff rate on their pitches. Whiff rate is swings-and-misses divided by swings. Which guys have the highest whiff rates on their 4-seam fastballs? Among the pitchers who have thrown 50 4-seamers the guy with the highest whiff rate is Jose Franco. The starter was just promoted to Dayton and had a 38.5% whiff rate while with Daytona. Zach Maxwell is right behind him at 38.1%. Tony Santillan, Anyer Laureano, and Brett Kennedy are the only other pitchers over the 30% mark.

The 2-seam Fastball

The top velocity on 2-seam fastballs isn’t a surprise – it comes from Yosver Zulueta at 96.6 MPH. He was also among the leaders in 4-seam velocity, but he throws a 2-seamer far more often. Anyer Laureano was also among the leaders in 4-seam velocity, but his 2-seamer is second on the list at 95.1 MPH. Among starting pitchers who use the pitch with a little bit of regularity, it’s Lyon Richardson coming in at 93.4 MPH.

While the 2-seam fastball is more about getting groundballs than getting swings and misses, it’s still a pitch that can generate some misses. Among guys with at least 50 2-seamers thrown it’s Jonah Hurney leading the way with a 30% whiff rate on the pitch. What’s interesting there is that it’s a pitch that averages 88.8 MPH. Cody Adcock is next on the list and he’s at 23.3%. Among the starters it’s Carson Spiers at 23%.

The Cutter

There aren’t many guys that throw the pitch in the system. There are a few guys who are listed as throwing a cutter, but I’m of the belief that the pitch is actually a slider that’s being misclassified. Some cutters can be very slider like and they can almost blend together.

With that said, among the ones I believe are actually cutters – it’s Simon Miller leading the way with a 50% whiff rate on his cutter. Dylan Simmons is next at 46.4%. Carson Spiers leads the way among starting pitchers at 25.8%.

The Change Up

Pure velocity isn’t really important here. It’s about deception – selling it as a fastball but have enough separation in velocity from the fastball. For that reason we’re not diving into who is throwing the change up the hardest. But we do care about the whiff rate on the pitch.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 change ups this season in the two leagues we’ve got data on it’s Nestor Lorant leading the way with a 59.1% whiff rate. Spencer Stockton is next on the list and comes in with a 50% whiff rate on the pitch. Among the starting pitchers it’s Brian Edgington at 44.7%. Jose Franco is next starter on the list at 33.3%.

The Curveball

As a secondary pitch, it’s also less about the velocity than the movement and deception. So looking at the whiff rates among pitchers with at least 40 of them thrown it’s once again Nestor Lorant atop the list at 41.7%. Evan Kravetz is next on the list at 34.8%. Connor Phillips leads the starters at 34.4%.

The Slider

Sliders are a weird pitch. Some guys throw a slider that is fairly straight on the horizontal plane, but bits hard in a downward fashion on the vertical plane. Others throw more of a sweeping slider that is somehow not a “sweeper” (but I guess this is another conversation for another day).  Some guys throw a hard slider, while others have a large velocity difference with their slider and fastball. So many different ways for this pitch to play out.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 40 sliders we’ve got data on, Michael Byrne’s 50% whiff rate tops the chart. Adam Serwinowski and Brooks Kriske are next, tied at 48.1%. Christian Roa, Yosvery Zulueta, and Justin Bruihl are also above the 40% mark.

The Sweeper

I think there’s probably some pitch identification issues here, and with the cutter, and with the slider, as some of these pitches can blend together enough to be charted as one or the other. That said, five pitchers are throwing what’s being labeled as a sweeper. Carson Spiers has thrown 187 of them and has a 41.4% whiff rate on it to lead the way among the three pitchers who have thrown at least 40 of them. Alan Busenitz is at 30.8%, and Connor Phillips is at 25.9%.

The Raw Data