The 2014 season was a bit of a breakout for Yorman Rodriguez, though it was hidden by an absolutely atrocious three week stretch in May after returning from an oblique injury. Outside of that stretch, the then 21-year-old hit .286/.358/.423 at Double-A Pensacola while being one of the youngest players in the league.
The Cincinnati Reds sent the center fielder to Triple-A to begin the 2015 season and things got off to a rough start. Over his first 16 games of the year, from April 9th through April 28th the right handed batter hit just .175/.230/.263 in 61 plate appearances. Things have really turned around since then for the 22-year-old from Venezuela.
Since April 29th the outfielder has played 42 games and racked up 168 plate appearances where he’s hit .308/.345/.484 to go along with 10 doubles, three triples and four home runs for the Louisville Bats. When he’s been hitting the ball, he’s made it count. His average is high and his slugging percentage is strong and it’s all coming as the 7th youngest position player in the league.
He’s been hitting the ball well, but it’s come with some good luck on balls in play as well. His batting average on balls in play in this span is .402, which is unsustainable over a long period of time. Eventually that will come down, meaning he will have to find another way to keep producing at a high level offensively.
In this span he’s only had nine walks and he’s struck out 43 times. The walk rate isn’t strong, nor is the strikeout rate. Improving one or both of those would be a way to help counteract the inevitable decline in his batting average on balls in play. That’s exactly what we have seen happen over the last two weeks where he’s had six walks and just nine strikeouts in 53 plate appearances. The 2014 breakout he had was built around taking a step forward with his plate approach (outside of that three week stretch in May) as he boosted his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate versus his career rates. This recent stretch could just be a blip on the radar, or it could be Rodriguez getting back to a more patient approach that he used last year.
[private_subscriber]
Another area that could help offset the batting average on balls in play decline that will eventually be coming is to improve his power output. While he’s been hitting for good power in this stretch, there’s more in the tank for Rodriguez in the future. It’s already taken a step forward in 2015, though it has been a small upgrade. Louisville isn’t the easiest place to hit for power, but it is where he’s done his damage at in 2015. While I can’t explain the home/road splits, there is a reason to believe more power is coming and possibly coming soon.
For his entire career, Rodriguez has been an opposite field hitter. He’s gone to right field in his career more often than he’s pulled the ball to left, and especially for a guy who’s always been incredibly young for his level and power usually being the last part of offense to fully develop. In 2015, at least so far, for the first time in his career he’s pulling the ball more to left field than he is going the other way with it to right field. Let’s take a look at his spray chart going back to 2011.
While there have been some ups and downs over the past five seasons, the trends are showing that he’s been pulling the ball more and going the other way less over the years. The rates are pretty even in 2015, as they were in 2013, but there was some imbalance in the other three years where he had gone the other way far more often than he was pulling the ball. Most guys aren’t like Joey Votto, there power is to the pull side a lot more often than it is to the opposite field. Rodriguez is no different than most players, his isolated power for his career is much stronger to the pull side than it is to the opposite field, and while his overall power isn’t up too much this season from last year, but if he continues to pull the ball as often as he has to this point in the year, expect the power output to go up.
The biggest key for his future success will be improving his current strikeout-to-walk ratio, which we’ve seen him do in the past. But his pulling the ball more frequently could be what puts him over the top in terms of getting the most out of his offensive abilities. It will be beneficial in his power output, improve his slugging and make him a little less reliant on batting average on balls in play. With above-average power potential that he hasn’t tapped into much in the past, this could be the first step towards seeing it come to fruition. If being a little more selective at the plate happens at the same time things could really take a step forward as the two things could play together very well. For now, we are just seeing early signs of what could come, but it’s something to really keep an eye on as Rodriguez moves forward in the 2015 season.
[/private_subscriber]