Today was the day that began to unveil the Cincinnati Reds Top 25 Prospect List, and I figured that would probably be the biggest news of the week. Once again I have shown that I am not able to see the future. Hunter Greene, who ranked #2 on the Top 25 Reds Prospect List, decided to drop the news that he’s 100% on twitter this evening.

It was in late July that Hunter Greene was skipped a start. In early August he was shut down after an MRI revealed that he had a tear in his Ulnar Collateral Ligament in his right elbow. The tear wasn’t deemed to be too significant as Greene chose to go the rehab route rather than Tommy John surgery. Rehab has been successful for more than a few pitchers who only had small tears. The Reds have had two guys avoid surgery in recent years, with both Michael Lorenzen and Anthony DeSclafani coming back from rehab situations to avoid surgery.

Obviously for Hunter Greene this is great news. You never want to have surgery if you don’t need to. It’s also great news for the Reds. While most players return from Tommy John surgery without issues, it isn’t always the case. But even when they do, it does push the timetable back on guys. For Greene, if the rehab plan didn’t work as he and the doctors had hoped, he may have had to opt for surgery. That would have cost him at least a full season. Now it appears that he will be ready to go and won’t miss any time beyond the four weeks that he was out in August after being shut down.

After a tough start to the 2018 season, Hunter Greene dominated the Midwest League over the summer. In his final 13 starts, beginning on May 12th he posted a 2.91 ERA. In his 58.1 innings he allowed just four home runs. The right hander held opposing hitters to a .211/.272/.366 line in 233 plate appearances. That also came along with just a 5.6% walk rate and a 30.5% strikeout rate.

Assuming that he does remain healthy through the spring I would expect to see him begin the year in Daytona. While his ERA in Dayton wasn’t great, he showed everything you want to see from someone to earn a promotion except handling a large workload. He improved throughout the season. He made adjustments both in-game and over the year. The peripherals were outstanding. He’ll be just 19-years-old next season, the same age as many high schoolers that were drafted in 2018. But he showed he could dominate the Midwest League last year. The only reason to return to Dayton would be to manage his workload. That, however, can also be done in Daytona where he’d face more of a challenge.

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

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28 Responses

  1. Stock

    With my analysis earlier today I decided that you were indeed right ranking Greene over Trammell. With this news he is still #2 but I am feeling closer to #1 than #3.

    Thanks for the update.

  2. CP

    Glad to hear this! I would also love to hear this news from the Reds FO, but I don’t see any reason for Hunter Greene to announce this unless it is indeed true.

    Hopeful he can stay healthy going forward and finish the year next year in AA! If he does that, he will be ready to contribute to the Reds sometime in 2020. With the hopeful arrival of Santillian sometime in 2019 and Greene in 2020 it gives hope for a mostly homegrown rotation, but then again I thought the same things about Reed/Stephenson/Garrett/Mahle/ect. Jury is still out on some of those guys but we will just have to wait and see.

    • MK

      With HIPPA Laws I doubt Reds can make a statement on Medical Issues.

  3. AirborneJayJay

    Good news. This certainly makes him more attractive on the trade market as the Reds seek out a top of the rotation starter.
    If Castellini follows up on his word (a very, very big if) to go “get the pitching”, then one of Greene or Santillan will have to be included in a trade package. Keep Santillan and trade Greene.
    Running out a stat line that starts on May 12?? That is cherry picking on the stats and really doesn’t tell you much of anything. Did the games in April and first half of May not count?? Why was Greene only going 3 innings in 2 starts just before getting shut down? Was something amiss? He only went 2 in the game he exited with the injury. Did Greene’s showing off in the Futures Game play any role in his injury? He was shut down in his 2nd start after that game.
    I am not sure I would use Lorenzen and DeSclafani as glowing examples of not having the surgery. Both have been extremely inconsistent following their returns to the mound. They won’t even let Lorenzen back in the rotation fearing the workload will fray the ligament again. Lorenzen and DeSclafani both had issues with their elbow after their treatment.
    Greene’s elbow is now always going to be a distraction until he finally has the TJ surgery. How many flare ups will there be where he’ll have to placed on the DL?
    If one of Santillan or Greene have to be included in a trade package, who do you trade? Keep Santillan and trade Greene and his now suspect elbow. This time last year I was all on board for trading Greene to headline a package for Christian Yelich. Now Yelich is going to be the NL MVP. And Greene is nursing an injured elbow.
    Greene is a Tommy John Surgery waiting to happen. Greene, India, Siri, and a couple of others could bring back to the Reds a bonafide Major League top of the rotation starter with 3 or 4 years of team control left. A Noah Syndergaard.
    I wouldn’t trade Greene for anything less than a Noah Syndergaard type. That needs to be said. But you have to trade a quality prospect to obtain a proven quality player.
    I didn’t want to disappoint Michael Smith above with my “rant”.

    • Jonathan

      Dude – eat a snickers bar for crying out loud! Ever check out Jose Fernandez minor league states?? he through 120 innings as a 20 year old. Green was 18-19 years old in 2018.

      • AirborneJayJay

        Greene pitched about 30 innings his senior year of high school. He pitched 4.1 last season in addition to his high school “load”. I think he had about 10 IP’s in instructional league. He pitched 68.1 IP’s this year. Very, very low mileage on his arm. And he now has already had a major right elbow issue on a major elbow ligament.
        That would be like driving a new Lexus off the lot and the transmission falls out in the first few months. Beware, as the TJS road is littered with high velocity pitchers everywhere.
        When discussing Greene, an abundance of caution should be thrown over the hype wagon. The other shoe will fall. It is only a matter of time.

  4. Vander

    An entire rant about how much Hunter Greene is now terrible and worthless… And he ends it with “I wouldn’t trade Greene for anything less than a Noah Syndergaard type.”

    This is what people are talking about when they say “don’t read the comments”

    • AirborneJayJay

      Dude, can you actually read? Your reading comprehension is what is worthless. A Rhodes Scholar you are not. I hope you didn’t run up thousands of dollars in debt for student loans if you cannot read any better than that. Go back to asking people if they want fries with that.
      There isn’t one word in there about Hunter Greene being terrible and worthless. Not one. Elbow issues and concerns? Yes. Terrible and worthless? No. I’ve never said that.
      Dick Williams is going to have to trade some players of value to address Big Bob’s mandate to go “get the pitching”. Greene should be at the top of that list. Like I said above, if they have to trade one of Santillan or Greene to go “get the pitching”, hold on to Santillan and trade Greene. Greene alone won’t bring back much of a ML pitcher, it will take a package of 4 or 5 players.
      Well then, you will probably come back with an uninformed quip like if the Reds know he is hurt all the other GM’s will also know he is hurt. The whole baseball world knows there is an issue with his elbow. Greene has declared himself healthy, but the Reds have not made such a proclamation. But you, like many Reds fans, seem unfazed by his elbow. So, maybe there are some GM’s around the league that will also be as unfazed as you by Greene’s elbow concerns and would readily trade for him.
      Hey Vander, if you were the new GM of the Mets, would you take Greene and India, and a package of 2 or 3 other Reds top-15 prospects in the #7-#15 range for Syndergaard? That might also include Siri and Long and/or Gutierrez? From the Reds perspective I would make that trade all day long. From a Mets perspective, with a farm system rather void of top prospects, probably so, even if they are choosing to reload instead of rebuilding. The Mets new GM might very well want to make a big splash at the winter meetings in December. And the Reds are in a position to also trade some major league players. Mets probably aren’t interested in Scooter or BHam with only 1 year left and probably not on Dilson Herrera with no options left. But Schebler and Barnhart might be of particular interest.

      • Doug Gray

        Guys, let’s play a bit nicer, huh? Keep the personal attacks off the site.

        Jay…. your rant absolutely came off that way. Maybe you didn’t mean for it to, but yes, it came off that way. You discredited him in multiple ways and implied he was overrated, unproven, and yada yada yada.

      • Mjc

        In defense of Jay, I don’t think I’ve ever read him saying Hunter Greene wasn’t a valuable asset. It’s just his opinion that he’s more valuable as a trade asset for more of a sure thing. And I remember him last year stating he’d love to package him for Cristian Yelich. I dint agree with that at the time but hindsight he was correct. Also remember Doug posting many times about we should go after Yelich. Kudos to both.

  5. Wes

    Nice to see a young man with millions of dollars give Jesus the credit for the healing in his life. Stock WAY up for me.

    • RedsKoolAidDrinker

      I was thinking the same thing when i first saw that!

  6. Billy

    So do we know what this actually means? Is he cleared to resume normal baseball activities? If so, how long until he’s where he should be with a typical off-season throwing program? Is this the definitive word that he’ll be 100% ready to go at the start of Spring Training?

  7. Champ Summers

    I hope they ask him to delay a throwing program just to be cautious. He can put it off and still have plenty of time to be prepared for February. On a side note, I wonder who reads comments that look to be 200 to 300 words when not written by Doug? My attention span in not that good.

    • sixpack2

      There are different levels of pitching and he needs to be throwing as soon as he can. Just not letting it go.

  8. Doc

    It was oft stated that Greene would have been a high first round pick, possibly even top pick, as a shortstop. If he were that good as an SS, and since SS is a position that is consistently bandied about as being an area of need, I would be reluctant to trade Greene this early in his career. If he had TJ and was not the dominant pitcher they expected, would he still be an above average SS? Or is that too far outside the box for the Reds’ FO to think?

    I doubt that Noah Syndegaard in 2019 would make this team any more than .500 at best, and he would need to win about 30 games to do that. I’d rather have an asset like Greene and be targeting for improvement over the next couple of years, and a playoff run in Greene’s 2-6 years of big lead control. I prefer home grown, if we have a good gardener.

    • Colorado Red

      I would agree with you.
      With only 1 year of control, Noah is not worth it, especially if we are not ready to compete.

  9. MK

    If Greene is such a gamble then why on earth would the Mets trade Syndergaard for him? With Thor’s agent now the General Manager I doubt he is available at all unless their is Major League ready talent included. Just look what Latos cost.

  10. redsvol

    man we need a home-grown stud pitcher in the worst way. Here’s to continued health for Hunter!

  11. sixpack2

    I think FA for Pitching is the way to go, as that just cost money (not that the Reds have any) Trading the Farm for someone who has at least 3 years control is very risky in that Pitcher and the future value of the players traded. Oh to be a GM and pick those players to trade!

    • Bill

      Agreed. While we should always be willing to listen to trade offers and be wiling to be opportunistic, I would prefer the Reds to go the FA route for starting pitching. I think we should continue to build our minor league system until we are competitive at the a trade deadline. As deep as the system is, it will quickly deplete if we try to “trade” our way to competitiveness.