The folks over at Baseball Prospectus scooped the folks at Baseball America today, releasing their Top 101 prospect list earlier in the day than the Top 100 list at Baseball America (which will be written about later). You can see the entire list here – for free.
The Cincinnati Reds have four prospects on the list created by the Baseball Prospectus crew. They also have a podcast that you can listen to that discusses the list. And finally, there will be a chat around noon where you could get some questions answered if you’d like. All of those things are at the link above.
Nick Senzel is the top rated prospect in the system, coming in at #9 on the list. He’s hilariously listed as “3B/2B/SS?/OF?”. The 23-year-old spent all of 2018 in Triple-A…. while he was healthy. He played in 44 games and hit .310/.378/.509 before he injured his finger and required season-ending surgery in June.
Taylor Trammell comes in at #11 on the list. That’s the highest ranking that he’s had thus far in his career. The now 21-year-old played in 110 games for Advanced-A Daytona. He hit .277/.375/.406 in the pitching friendly Florida State League. Trammell also stole 25 bases. He also went to the Arizona Fall League after the season was over and hit .298/.359/.393 with six more steals in 22 games played.
In a bit of a surprise, Jonathan India came in at #35 on the list. It’s not so much that he’s ranked that high – but that he comes in ahead of another guy from the Reds organization. But more on that in a minute. The fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft, India played in 44 games between Greeneville, Billings, and Dayton. In his three stops over those two months, he hit .240/.380/.433 with 28 walks and 44 strikeouts.
The biggest surprise on the list from the Reds side of things was Hunter Greene being all of the way down at #75 on the list. The right-handed pitcher struggled to begin the season, but went off in the final two months of his season. Like Nick Senzel, an injury cut his season short. He tore his UCL and opted for rehab instead of Tommy John surgery. The rehab seemed to work and he began to throw in December and has no restrictions as he prepares for spring training. Before the injury he posted a 4.48 ERA in 68.1 innings with 23 walks and 89 strikeouts as an 18-year-old in the Midwest League for the Dayton Dragons.
Cincinnati had four prospects on the list was the second most in the division. The Pirates landed five prospects on the list, but only one player in the Top 50 (Mitch Keller at #18). The Cardinals only had two players make the list. Chicago had just one player make the list. Milwaukee only had one prospect on the list, but made it count – Keston Hiura came in at #6, the highest ranked prospect in the division.
The Reds had four prospects on the list in 2018. Jesse Winker graduated from that list. The remaining prospects all returned. Nick Senzel dropped from #7 to #9. Hunter Greene dropped from #39 to #75. Taylor Trammell jumped up from #59 to #11. And of course, Jonathan India wasn’t eligible for the list and then jumped onto it after the draft.
Tony Santillan continues to fall into a weird blackhole with prospect lists.
Well….unless you are a Reds fan there are few people who even know who Tony Santillin is. And there’s nothing eye popping about his stats to be honest.
The people making these lists know who Tony Santillan is. And at least here, they’re missing the boat. I feel incredibly strong that not including Tony Santillan on your Top 100 list is very highly questionable.
Yeah, no idea why Santillan doesn’t get the national Love I feel he deserves.
Does not really matter. (yes it feels good).
I think Nolan Arenado was never a top 100 prospect, but is one of the best players in the game.
Also, just like March madness there is a whole group of players who are really close to each other.
(I think He should be on the list, but what do I know)
Not saying it matters as far as his future play is concerned. No rankings matter from that perspective. But since this is a post about the list, I thought I’d add my confusion on his exclusion from the list to the conversation. I like Santillan better than India as far as prospects go, one is ranked top 40 and one is in ranked. Not sure how that works out the way it does.
With respect to Hunter Greene Doug said this:
“He tore his UCL and opted for rehab instead of Tommy John surgery”
This is a extremely dramatic and somewhat irresponsible characterization of the events. Members of the media do this sort of thing all the time which explains why his ranking is so low but Doug you are better than this. The words “tore his UCL”
were never uttered by anyone who examined Greene yet the media now subscribes to the theory that any degree of sprain is a tear and it’s only a matter of time until Tommy John surgery is necessary.
No, it’s not. Hunter Greene TORE HIS UCL. This is an indisputable fact. Sorry to burst your “hate on the media” bubble, Tony.
Again show me where these words were uttered by anyone who examined him. The implication is that he “tore his UCL” and therefore it will never heal which is not necessarily true.
I’m telling you right now that he tore his UCL.
And the idea that “it will never heal” is also false.
This isn’t 1972 anymore.
https://vitalrecord.tamhsc.edu/differences-sprain-strain-tear/
Here is a random website that tries to explain the differences.
But I will say regardless of what you want to say about it, shutting down a very young pitcher because of an elbow injury when said pitcher routinely throws 100 mph and TJ is an option is a large red flag and nothing to really down play IMO.
And just for anyone who reads this, I will re-iterate once again, Hunter Greene tore his UCL. This is not based on reading “sprain” and assuming, even though a sprain is a tear.
I thought it was a partial tear?
It was. Does that change something about it not being a tear?
You guys are arguing semantics here. I am an Orthopedic Surgeon who has done a Sports Medicine Fellowship and tear, partial tear, sprain are all varying degrees of the same thing. Sprains are even technically tears. They all imply structural damage to the ligament. If he had a complete tear he wouldn’t be rehabbing it though. I haven’t read too much about his specific case but I am pretty confident it wasn’t that.
If it partially snows, then has it snowed? .
I know you are telling me this but how do you know this? I will flatly tell you that I don’t have any earthly idea if he did or did not tear it and I don’t claim to know. How do you know?
Because I know.
This is ridiculous. You claim that you have no earthly idea, but then come here to tell me that I’m being dramatic, irresponsible and should be better than this.
Talk about being dramatic and should be better.
It’s not ridiculous Doug. Did someone from the Reds medical staff relay this information to you or are you saying this because you subscribe to theory that any degree of sprain is a tear?
It’s absolutely ridiculous, Tony.
I told you what happened. You then came here trying to tell me how I’m not doing my job responsibly based on what you think I was doing.
In Tony’s defense. Doug you do sometimes come off as I’m better than you in the comments that you respond to people. Not trying to start a fight here but just saying.
The guy came in here telling me that I’m irresponsibly doing my job. Based on absolutely nothing other than his “I have no earthly idea of what happened” garbage.
Is a partial tear a tear? Yes. Are there degrees to it? Yes. However partial the tear was, he dropped about 40 spots on BA’s list, after pitching incredibly well. I cant fault BA either, in fact they probably have him right where he belongs.
General Manager Nick Krall said there was a partial tear.
“Technically, a sprain is a partial tear, but we’ve also had guys who had these—Michael Lorenzen it was non-surgical, Anthony DeSclafani was non-surgical—so hopefully this does work and this can lead to him being ready for next season,” Krall said.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hunter-greene-out-for-year-with-sprained-ucl/
But did Nick Krall hear it directly from the Reds medical staff? Or did he just read a sprain is a tear on the internet?
Doug this wasn’t based on “nothing or garbage” but rather it was based on everything that I read. Not once did I read that he “tore” his UCL from anyone who works directly from the Reds. If they did say it and I missed it then I stand corrected but I’m asking for you or anyone else to show me where this was said. As yes I’m well aware of the prevailing theory that every sprain is a tear which is akin to saying any bruise is internal bleeding.
How dare you, Doug! How dare you correctly outline an injury!
LOUD. NOISES.
General Manager Nick Krall said there was a partial tear.
“Technically, a sprain is a partial tear, but we’ve also had guys who had these—Michael Lorenzen it was non-surgical, Anthony DeSclafani was non-surgical—so hopefully this does work and this can lead to him being ready for next season,” Krall said.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hunter-greene-out-for-year-with-sprained-ucl/
Thank you for this link!
Doug this a great point. Why Krall said “technically” instead of just coming out and directly saying he tore it is anybody’s guess. To me it seems like he doesn’t want to seem like he’s ignorant to the prevailing theory and every ligament sprain is a tear but still treading lightly so as not to imply that Tommy John surgery is necessary.
Tony,
For the last time, stop. He tore his UCL. I know this. It’s a fact. Period. Move on and take the loss.
Jeez, man. Stop. This whole line of questioning is absurd to the point of embarrassing yourself. I’m not saying Doug knows everything, but it is his job to know a lot more than we do. You literally just said that you have no idea, but for some reason you keep pushing it. Get it together, man.
“I admittedly know nothing but you’re doing it wrong”
Wow.
Honestly blown away by this list. I could see Nick tailing off a little just because of how the season ended but he is still a top 10 talent. Tramell is poisted to turn a lot of heads this year and am glad the Reds opted to keep him. He has tremendous upside and will break into the top 10 list by mid season break. Very happy to see that India has made this jump, with a good year, he cold be inside the top 25. All hunter has to do is come back and prove to the media that he is healthy and he jumps into top 25.
Mid Season we could see Nick and Tramell top 10 and then India and Greene top 25. Santillan will break top 100 this year along with #7 draft pick.
And hopefully Siri.
Boy, not much in the pipeline anywhere in the division outside of Cincy and Pittsburgh. For the Pirates to sit on their hands all winter in this division it tells me they’re putting all their eggs in one basket–that they trust these prospects will usher in their next competitive window. I like their starting pitching a lot, but it’s not going to be enough at the moment.
This is going to be an interesting year in the Central. A lot to like about each of the teams, but the wheels are going to fall off somebody because that’s just how it goes.
All I’ve read about Greene’s arm is that he has a partial tear which is now better. I’m sure Doug is absolutely correct. Without any other sources Doug’s word has proven to be
able to be trusted.
“But, of course, African swallows are non-migratory…”
LOL, dating yourself there.
Monty Python or Bust
Are you sure its not a European swallow? Is it laden or unladen and what is its airspeed?
Look, it’s not a matter of how it would grasp it. An 8 oz bird can not carry a 2lb coconut!
I get knocking Greene down like they did. While there was some very promising stuff as the year went along, he didn’t exactly dominate from start to finish, and it’s hard to tell someone exactly what level of concern they should have about injuries. If BP thinks the Reds made a big mistake not doing TJS 6 months ago, then that should likely reflect in their rankings. The upside is still there, they are just more concerned than they used to be that he ever reaches that upside. I get it. I still have him ranked above India though.
And add me to the cacophony of people astounded by the national media sleeping on Santillan. Plus stuff, markedly improved control, year to year improvements every year as a pro, no way he isn’t a top 100 guy in my mind.
Well, if they think the decision was the Reds to not go the TJ route, they’re doing it wrong to begin with. This is the players choice, not the teams.
Technically yes. It boils down to the patient deciding. However, it isn’t as simplistic as that really. The doctors present the patient with options and outlooks for recovery, and make recommendations on those options. Yes, the patient decides, but they are also heavily influenced. Doctors work for the teams, not the players. Teams do have influence, but no they can’t make a player have surgery.
There’s a reason that most guys get a second opinion from a non-team doctor, too, though. Guys are always trying to avoid surgery if there’s another potential option on the table.
I think they knocked the injury, not the course of treatment. He’s top 25 if he finishes the year healthy. If anything, i think it shows that they really value his upside, to keep a 19 y/o with a serious elbow injury inside the top 100.
I can completely understand Santillan why he is not in the top 100. It is still questionable if he is a starter or a reliever. If he is a starter it is as a back end starter most likely.
His numbers last year do not look as great if you consider the leagues that he was in are pitching friendly. I get giving him the benefit of the doubt because of his age in AA.
But his improved control maybe more of him throwing it over the plate more and not true command. Him being hit hard in AA maybe a symptom of that. You can see by Castillo and Mahle how their much better walk at AA went up when they pitched in the MLB. You can project Santillan walk would also increase at the MLB level.
Santillan fastball as a starter is average in the MLB but coming out of the pen and adding a couple of MPH makes his fastball above average. I think he would be better in a Josh Hader role.
I do not think the ratings systems have caught up with the new pitching philosophies. Basically starters are there not to lose you the game in the first 5 innings. So 70 excellent innings out of a reliever to me is better than 150 meh innings from a starter.
He has time to improve his command and learn to pitch.
I’m confused. Santillan looks like a sure-fire starting pitcher to me. Who’s saying otherwise?
His league is more neutral than pitcher friendly if I recall correctly. It’s certainly not the FSL when it comes to being pitcher friendly.
Nate
The average ERA in the Southern league has been 3.69, 3.59 and 3.85
the last three years I consider that pitching friendly.
That is why Shed Long ops is better than what people think.
International League 2018 ERA was 3.84, Southern was 3.88, FSL was 3.79, Midwest League was 3.76.
Southern League had the highest ERA in 2018 of the full season leagues the Reds have affiliates in, but the league is pitcher friendly? Something doesn’t add up.
By OPS: International .709, Southern .701, FSL .691, Midwestern .698.
So the second highest OPS of the full season leagues the Reds have affiliates in.
Again, nothing there says pitching friendly.
Doug as with many naysayers, you must give up your source so that they can shoot down your source. Fine job Doug, I’ll believe what you say before many of the national sport scribes….because you’re reporting on your team. Don’t let them get you down…..you know that is what some people live for.
This should have been addressed yesterday but half of today’s comments are garbage so here goes.
Siri has 1 K in his 19 plate appearances in the championship series. To take it a little further he has 1 K in his last 25 plate appearance overall.
What has happened? Did he get a tip or figure something out? Maybe someone showed him how to differentiate between a FB and a Curve earlier. Maybe he is choking up. Maybe he shortened his stride. Has Doug or anyone heard anything? What do you guys think?
This could be a small sample size thing but two things stick out. The deeper you get into the playoffs the better the pitching. Therefore, the pitching he is facing now is as good as it gets. Second, the probability of doing this, even in this small sample size are slim.
Assuming a 25% K% (about what Siri was averaging prior to this streak) the probability of of striking out 0 or 1 times is as follows:
19 AB: 3.1%
25 AB: 0.7%
Finally, assume he has figured something out and after spending 2019 in AA and AAA he has a 15% – 20% K%. Assume this comes with power similar to the last two years. I say he instantly becomes our best prospect and a top 5 overall prospect (I know this is dreaming or hoping).
Anything under a 25% K rate this year and i’ll start getting really excited. He has 4 plus tools, but the one that matter most is the biggest question mark.
I’ve heard nothing, but I do know that he’s absolutely locked in right now. He’s hitting over .600 in the championship series. For now, I’m just going to say he’s seeing the ball insanely well. But I certainly hope that he’s figured out the slider.
Glad BA has India that high, Im higher on him than most. Similar to Senzel in many ways, with more strikeouts and more power. I think they should try him out around the field. CF, RF, 3rd, 2nd, SS. I doubt he’ll be good enough defensively to ever be starting SS at ML level, but for a handful a games a year maybe. Right field is probably easiest path for a single full time position.
I’m fairly high on India as well, I watched a ton of his games for Florida last year. He tended to shine in the toughest moments and was insanely competitive. He needs to bring the K rate down a bit, but the walk rate and power showed up from day one with the wood bats. If he starts in Dayton i’ll need to get to a game early before he gets moved up to Daytona. Won’t shock me if he starts in Daytona though.
I for one am no longer interested in the list, give me more Doug v Tony.
But Greene not being in the top 50 is kind of a joke. Oh well, he’s not paid to make list, just preform.
That comment from Pensacola I was responding to calling the Reds a “trashy organization” has disappeared. Poof, gone, like it was magic. Sorry if you wonder why I went off on Pensacola.
As far as response rants go, that one was pretty entertaining
Sorry about that. That guy has been coming on here and just making stupid posts, clearly upset that the Reds left Pensacola. It’s all he’s ever posted about – the posts used to be positive about the Blue Wahoos. But since the team left them/they chose to go with another team, he shows up to just say something trashy about the Reds. He’s about one more post like that away from just getting banned from posting.
Stock,
Thanks for sharing this about Siri. Kid is on an absolute tear. Agree maybe dreaming, but what if he cuts his K rate and has an awesome spring training?
Funny thing is Siri is already on the 40 man while Nick Senzel isn’t. Doesn’t really mean anything but what if both tore it up in Spring training? I think we could have some interesting activity in spring training. We already have 5 major league outfielders without Senzel or Siri. Also will have to do something with the pitching. Stephenson has to make the club or put on waivers or traded.
I say no for at least 3 reasons.
1. You don’t want to lose a year of control so he can’t start in the majors. His first two weeks need to be in AA or AAA.
2. You have to prove it for more than a month in winter leagues and ST.
3. The Reds have committed to Winker/Puig/Schebler.
I think Puig will be a good CF.
Puig’s biggest problem is attitude. He will be focused this year. I have no doubt about that. He is in a contract year. Plus, he is probably upset the Dodgers traded him.
As for his defense, he showed last year he has the ability to make the tough play. Here is his performance last year per fangraphs:
Unlikely to make (10% – 40%): Puig: 50%
Even (40% – 60%): Puig 100%
Likely (60% – 90%): Puig 100%
Worse case scenario he is better than Choo.
Siri is already on the 40 man, so the Reds will have to option him to the minors after ST. Or they could bring him up as the 5th outfielder, defensive cf, & baserunner. When Senzel is ready then option Jose down. If playing Winter ball postseason isn’t thwarting his development as a player, why should 7 to 8 weeks in the ML cause concern?
What is going on with this blog today, lmao. How bout them waffles lol.
It was entertaining right? I like Doug and respect his opinion about baseball stuff and the hard work he puts in. I thought our argument earlier, which wasn’t a baseball argument, was one worth having and at the very least much more civil than 99.9% of the stuff that happens on the web.
It was not entertaining at all.
No Tony, it wasn’t entertaining.
Comment deleted.
Both of you guys – stop with the insults.
Doug it’s your site so you can do with it what you want. You deleted my comment and censored Rat’s comment to support your view. Then on twitter you censored the order of my comments and omitted other pertinent comments to obscure the context of our discussion and again support you view. Why do you feel the need to do this?
No. I deleted the parts of the comments that were insulting the other poster. Your entire comment that was deleted was an insult. Rat’s entire comment was not. So I removed the insulting part of that comment.
As for twitter, I didn’t censor the order of your comments. I literally posted them in the order of which you posted them. I left out my responses because they added nothing at all to the conversation that you were trying to call me out for reporting something incorrect, while later admitting that you literally didn’t know what was going on.
Why I felt the need to do it? It’s called venting frustration.
Winker puig kemp…imagine that defense.