The prospect crew at Fangraphs released their Top 100 prospects today. In fact, despite calling it their Top 100 list, it actually went to 130. The Cincinnati Reds landed six (this post has been updated to reflect an error as Fangraphs accidentally left two players off of the list and has been updated) players in the Top 130, including catcher Tyler Stephenson. This is the first time he’s cracked a Top 100 prospect list this offseason.
For Tyler Stephenson, he came in at #95 overall on the list. The catcher put together his first fully healthy season in 2018 since the year he was drafted. The now 22-year-old spent his entire season last year with the Advanced-A Daytona Tortugas. In 109 games he hit .250/.338/.392 with 20 doubles, a triple, and 11 home runs. He also walked 45 times with 98 strikeouts in the pitching friendly Florida State League. Here’s an excerpt from the write up from Fangraphs:
Stephenson has a rare toolbox for a catcher, with a 70-grade arm and surprisingly advanced defensive skills for a 6-foot-4 backstop, along with plus raw power. Stephenson isn’t a runner and his hit tool has been a little inconsistent, due to both his power-focused offensive approach and multiple injuries in pro ball (broken wrist, concussion). He performed well in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2018 and caught the whole year, which has him on the upswing, primed for a taste of Double-A in 2019 and a future as a big league regular in view
While Tyler Stephenson was the last of the Reds prospects to show up on the list, he wasn’t the only one. Nick Senzel came in at #7 on the list. Perhaps the most interesting part with the Nick Senzel write up is the “Estimated Probably Future Value Outcome” chart. In these charts it breaks down the different outcome probabilities for each player. The two most likely outcomes for Nick Senzel are for him to become a 60/65 player, or a 70+ player. Essentially, the two most likely outcomes are that of a perennial All-Star or MVP candidate.
Taylor Trammell comes in at #12 – tied for the highest ranking he’s had this offseason. The 21-year-old outfielder has four above-average tools, with several of those being plus or plus-plus on the raw side. This part of the write up can really get you excited to dream about when it comes to Taylor Trammell’s future:
He has excellent plate discipline and an all-fields, gap-to-gap approach that suits his plus-plus speed; everything he slices down the line or sprays into the gap goes for extra-bases. Trammell also put on a shocking display during BP at the Futures Game and hit two absolute seeds during the game. He never did anything remotely like that in the Fall League (nor, frankly, did any of the other prospects who played in D.C. and then later in Arizona) and actually struggled to turn on balls there, but there’s a chance of huge, if dormant, in-game power here, too.
Hunter Greene is the #51 overall prospect. While the write up notes his need to continue to develop his secondary pitches, and his elbow injury, it was the first sentence of the write up that sticks out and what makes Hunter Greene so special:
Build a pitching prospect in a laboratory and the result is Greene, who has elite arm strength and athleticism.
He’s followed up on the list by infielder Jonathan India at #75. The Reds 1st round draft pick in 2018 was the drafts biggest riser according to Fangraphs. They note his all around game on both offense and defense. It’s also noted that Jonathan India’s bat is going to play. The question is whether it will be more hit than power, or more power than hit.
Tony Santillan was initially missing from the list. According to the chat, there was a coding error that left two players off of the list. Both of them have Reds ties. Santillan was one of the players. Shed Long was the other. The list goes beyond 100 because all players given a 50 FV are listed. Both Santillan and Long are 50 FV players. They are listed at #131 and #132 on the list. Whether that’s where they would actually rank, or if they would fall somewhere else between prospect 46 and 132 – where everyone is rated as a 50 FV prospect – isn’t entirely clear. Either way, they’ve both been added. And it also gives you an idea of the small gap between a guy rated 50th and 130th. Their future value, at least on this list, is graded the same.
All of the write ups have more information than what I’ve shared here. There is a breakdown of the tool grades for each player, more to the write ups, and a break down of their likely outcomes. Go check out the entire list.