There’s something to be said about being called overrated. You’ve got to be regarded fairly well for someone to think you are overrated to begin with. The guitarist playing the local bar on Monday night is never the most overrated guitarist – it’s the one in the band that’s sold 20 million records that gets labeled as the most overrated guitarist.

If you’ve ever watched The Office – and if you haven’t, what are you even doing with your life? – then you probably remember the exchange between Michael Scott and Jan Levinson:

Jan: Well Michael, I underestimated you.

Michael: Yeah, well, maybe next time you will estimate me.

When it comes to over, or underrating someone – we need to know who is doing the rating in the first place. We don’t know the answer to that question. But Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline asked general managers, scouting directors, and executives for all 30 teams some questions for a series they are doing. And one of the questions that was asked was who is the most overrated prospect. Three players are tied at the top of the list with 13% of the vote. Hunter Greene is tied there with Taylor Trammell and Bobby Witt Jr.

Remember the part above where I said you’ve got to be highly regarded in order to get tabbed as overrated? Well, that certainly holds up well here. Hunter Greene and Bobby Witt Jr. were both the #2 overall draft pick – in 2017 and in 2019. In total there were 15 players who received votes in this category. Let’s take a look at where those players rank in the most recent prospect rankings from both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline:

Every player, except Adonis Medina, is rated inside the top 50 prospects in the entire game. It certainly seems that there’s plenty of guys on that list that are thought very well of, huh? Jo Adell got multiple votes and he’s the #2 prospect in baseball. Luis Robert just signed a contract extension that could be worth $88M and he’s rated as the #3 prospect in the game. Yet, someone voted that he was the most overrated prospect in all of baseball.

Hunter Greene was the recipient of votes in other categories. In the best fastball category he was among the “also received votes” list. Blue Jays Nate Pearson got half of the total votes on that one. Greene was also listed in the “also received votes” section of the best future closer category. As noted in the article – only one of the 15 pitchers that got a vote here is actually a reliever currently.

Only one other Reds prospect got votes in any category. That category was Most Underrated Prospect. And while I can tell you that I completely agree with the player receiving the vote he got, that I was not consulted for the vote. Shortstop Jose Garcia got the nod from at least one person in the voting pool. But to also put it into perspective, the player who got the most votes, Drew Waters, also got votes in the most overrated category.

31 Responses

  1. Tom

    I don’t think Greene would be under consideration if he wasn’t currently injured. Seems like an easy, if not unfair, way of identifying an overrated prospect. Let’s see how he matures.

    For Trammell, thinks started sliding last year to the point where it’s not hard to see him as a Corey Patterson style prospect unless the bat comes around.

    I never thought Madrigal or Bart were safe top 5 picks, so it’s interesting to see them on this list.

    Jo Adell is good company for anyone wishing they weren’t on this list. He’s got a bright future, IMO.

  2. RojoBenjy

    In other news, Alex Wood is back with the Dodgers. Plus the Dodgers still have Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs.

    The Reds still have—Kyle Farmer…

    Dick Williams and Nick Krall must feel like Charlie Brown sometimes.

    • Oldtimer

      Reds have Trevor Bauer (in exchange for Yasiel Puig). You forgot him.

      • RojoBenjy

        I hope Bauer rallies this year. Then it will feel better.

        The first impression of my post is that I was ragging on the Reds—but actually just feeling melancholy. The front office wasn’t expecting Wood to be out most of the year.

      • Stock

        I have to believe Trammell was the prize in that deal. Puig was a throwin

      • Oldtimer

        Puig has a career 122 OPS+ in MLB. Trammell has 0 OPS+ in MLB.

        I think you’re wrong.

      • Oldtimer

        Puig had 22 HR and 61 RBI in 100 games as a Red. Pretty good throw-in. Trammell has 0 HR and 0 RBI in 0 MLB games.

    • My Beloved Reds

      I understand how that looks, but Homer Bailey’s contract was unloaded in that trade as well. That alone is a positive.

      • Anderson

        Homer had a 1.9 WAR better than everyone they traded for combined.
        Wood -.2
        Puig 1.3
        Farmer .3
        Kemp -.9

        It wasn’t worth trading him

      • Greenfield Red

        Completely unfair Anderson. Unloading Bailey was universally believed to be a positive. It is using 20/20 hindsight to make the statement you made.

  3. Oldtimer

    Greene’s future is uncertain but not overrated. If healthy, he will be a darn good SP.

  4. TMS

    It’s fascinating how Hunter Greene is suddenly “overrated” by the same group who were calling him a “generational talent” the day before he was drafted. The only negative about Greene was the injury, but if you go back and look at his performance for the six weeks prior to his injury, he was completely dominating the Midwest League.

    • Hoyce

      Greene’s fastball is too straight. That’s another negative. Along w the obvious injury concerns.
      Would much rather have gore. Since it’s 20/20

  5. Redsvol

    Doug – do you plan on having a thread about what happened with the Astros today. Isn’t this the 3rd or 4th time since Luhnow took over that they’ve been caught being very unethical. I remember they stole analytics data from someone, then the Tubman incident and now electronic sign stealing. Not only him but now 2 of his top assistants are running clubs.

    • Hoyce

      Think they had the data stolen from them (cardinals). If I remember right.

      • Colt Holt

        Cardinals suspected foul play on Luhnows part. Looking back, maybe those stones weren’t fully unturned! I am happy to blame the cardinals as much as the next guy, but makes you wonder!

  6. Simon Cowell

    I agree on the Greene assessment. I will be shocked if he ever sees the light of day in the majors (as a starting pitcher)

  7. MK

    What possible difference does the assessment of these people mean? It is now about the performance noy projections. Greene, India, Stephenson etx, still have all the tools they were drafted with and now it is the development of positive performance.

  8. Colorado Red

    Could also be talking down prospects, and then trying to get them, for a lower price.

  9. Rich H.

    Hunter Greene is also listed as receiving a vote for “Best Amateur Prospect you’ve ever seen.”

  10. MBS

    This will be a telling year for Greene. I am hoping to see health and progression to AA from Greene. If that goes well, probably 1 more season in the minors.

    • DaveCT

      The amount of vitriol rises proportionally to the bonus received at signing. Same old you know what. Zzzz. As stated above, the tools remain.

  11. Shawn

    I just noticed you have me blocked on Twitter. I have never argued with you, I am a patron, I constantly link your articles on Facebook trying to send traffic your way. Was it a mistake? Reds and wildcats

    • Kurt

      Shawn, When Doug made an argument concerning minor leaguers needed more pay and then almost immediately shut off debate on the issue is when I quit my patron account. I rarely visit this site anymore. Figured he was doing well enough if only his opinion mattered.

      • Doug Gray

        Yeah, and I’ll continue to fight against anyone suggesting minor league baseball players should not be paid more than sub-minimum wage.