The 2021 season got out to a nice start for Allan Cerda. Cincinnati assigned the outfielder to Low-A Daytona to begin the year and Cerda homered in his first game, then added a double and a triple in his second game. In the final game of the opening series he would add another double and another home run as he just eviscerated the Palm Beach Cardinals pitching. But things slowed down from there. Over the next month he hit just .163/.275/.349 before an injury landed him on the injured list with the Tortugas for the next month.

When Allan Cerda returned to the lineup on July 9th he struggled out of the gate in a big way as he went 0-17 with two walks in the first six games back. But starting on the 17th he caught fire and didn’t look back. Over the next five weeks he played in 30 games and hit .321/.435/.679 with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 9 home runs, and 16 walks.

That led to the Reds promoting the centerfielder to High-A Dayton. In his first series against Fort Wayne he went 9-21 (.429) with 5 doubles and a triple. But he quickly went into a slump, going 1-32 in the next nine games. As quick as he went cold, he turned things right back up to 11 in the final week of the year, going 11-24 (.458) in the final seven games of the year with more walks than strikeouts in that span.

For all 2021 Season Reviews and Scouting Reports – click here (these will come out during the week throughout the offseason).

Allan Cerda Scouting Report

Position: Outfield | B/T: R/R

Height: 6′ 3″ | Weight: 170 lbs | Acquired: International FA (2017)

Born: November 24, 1999

Hitting | He’s got a below-average hit tool.

Power | His power potential is above-average.

Speed | He shows above-average speed.

Defense | He’s an above-average defender.

Arm | He has an above-average arm.

Allan Cerda’s got one of the best array of tools in the Reds farm system. His hit tool is below-average, but every other tool in his tool belt is above-average. And some of those tools are very usable right now.

The hit tool, though, is what could be the determining factor for where exactly Allan Cerda falls in the wide variety of outcomes his future could hold. When he was in Daytona this season he did cut his strikeout rate from where it was when he was in Greeneville back in 2019, but he still struck out 31% of the time – far more than you want to see a hitter strike out. In just 87 plate appearances when he was with Dayton late in the year his strikeout rate dropped to 23%. If he can get his strikeout rate closer to that number moving forward then Cerda could vault up the prospect rankings.

The upside here is an above-average defensive centerfielder who could hit 25+ home runs, steal double digit bases, and get on base at a good clip. You’re talking about an All-Star caliber player if he gets close to his ceiling. But the strikeout rate in his last two seasons is high, and it’s come in rookie and A-ball, and that likely means his floor is a bit low as a guy who could struggle in the upper minor leagues without making some real adjustments.

He’s always carried a high walk rate, which is both good and a tad concerning in this particular case. It does signify that he gets the strikezone well enough, and that’s a good thing. But that fact coupled with that he’s still racked up a lot of strikeouts may suggest that he has a limited upside in terms of contact because of something in his swing.

Allan Cerda Spray Chart

*No, that’s not a typo. Allan Cerda did triple on a pop up to first base.*

Interesting Stat on Allan Cerda

He hit .214 or less in three of the five months of the season (only played 9 games in June). But in July and August he hit .299 in 41 games.

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5 Responses

  1. MK

    Good thing this isn’t a Cubs site as they would have been lost once they got to eviscerated.

  2. DaveCT

    Siri, who is the best comp for Cerda of previous Reds prospects?

    • Stock

      What about Danny Dorn. Maybe Drew Stubbs with a lot more in-game power. Maybe even go as far as Todd Frazier with less plate discipline

  3. Stock

    Cerda is younger than Dorn, Stubbs or Frazier when he hit A+ ball. He also missed a year due to Covid. That said he looks superior to both Frazier and Stubbs offensively in A+ ball. I also included Aquino. Aquino’s numbers took quite a hit in AA.

    Player – Age/L / BB% / K% / ISO / OPS
    Cerda – 19/R / 0.121 / 0.339 / 0.25 / 0.83
    Cerda – 21/A / 0.112 / 0.308 / 0.282 / 0.886
    Cerda – 21/A+ / 0.115 / 0.23 / 0.247 / 0.875

    Player – Age/L / BB% / K% / ISO / OPS
    Dorn – 21/R / 0.145 / 0.145 / 0.218 / 1.03
    Dorn – 22/A+ / 0.083 / 0.178 / 0.175 / 0.815
    Dorn – 23/AA / 0.108 / 0.216 / 0.262 / 0.906

    Player – Age/L / BB% / K% / ISO / OPS
    Frazier – 22/A+ / 0.099 / 0.203 / 0.169 / 0.808
    Frazier – 23/AA / 0.084 / 0.134 / 0.191 / 0.831
    Frazier – 24/AAA / 0.084 / 0.206 / 0.19 / 0.781

    Player – Age/L / BB% / K% / ISO / OPS
    Stubbs – 23/A+ / 0.14 / 0.229 / 0.145 / 0.772
    Stubbs – 23/AA / 0.104 / 0.198 / 0.087 / 0.802
    Stubbs – 24/AAA / 0.108 / 0.22 / 0.092 / 0.713

    Player – Age/L / BB% / K% / ISO / OPS
    Aquino – 22/A+ / 0.065 / 0.198 / 0.246 / 0.846
    Aquino – 23/AA / 0.077 / 0.288 / 0.181 / 0.679
    Aquino – 24/AA / 0.079 / 0.252 / 0.208 / 0.754