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    Reds promote Christian Roa to Triple-A Louisville

    Doug Gray 7

    A few days age we found out that top 10 prospects Connor Phillips and Noelvi Marte were both being promoted from Double-A Chattanooga to Triple-A Louisville now that the first half of the season is over. This morning we found out that the first-half winners in the Southern League would be losing another player to promotion, with right-handed starting pitcher Christian Roa joining them.

    For the first half of the season, Christian Roa was in Chattanooga’s rotation. He made 13 starts and posted a 4.88 ERA. Over his 59.0 innings pitched he allowed 41 hits, seven home runs, walked 44 batters, and he struck out 87.

    On the good side of those stats is that he’s not allowing many hits and he’s picking up a lot of strikeouts. On the flip side of that is that his walk rate is about twice as high as you’d prefer to see it from a starting pitcher. That walk rate is going to have to come down if he’s going to remain a starting pitcher in the long run.

    The season has been up-and-down for Roa. His first start of the year saw him allow five earned runs and not get out of the 1st inning. The next three starts were better, but not good, as he allowed 11 runs in 11.2 innings and had 11 walks, and hit three more. But he was absolutely dominant in the three starts that followed that, giving up just four hits in 15.0 innings and allowing no earned runs while striking out 24 batters (but did have 10 walks). Things got tough in the following three starts as he allowed 14 runs in 14.2 innings. But once again he was dominant in the following three (and final) starts. He gave up just two runs in 17.0 innings and allowed just eight hits (but walked 11 batters). You can see his career stats here.

    With Double-A experimenting with the pre-tacked ball in the first half of the season, it’s been tough to truly evaluate pitchers (and hitters, to be honest). Triple-A uses the major league baseball. It’s not pre-tacked. We’ll get a little better idea due to that, but with that it also comes better hitters. It also comes with the automated strikezone for half of each series, and a challenge system for the other half.

    As I type this, no other promotions in the system have been announced, but they have to be coming. The trickle up effect to fill out the rosters is going to happen.

    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2006 in one variation or another.

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    7 Responses

    2. Doubt the Dragons play today as reports are that Grand Rapids,MI has the worst air quality in the US and is a very unhealthy standard.

      1. That would be wise. I’ve been here in the PNW for several years now, and wildfire smoke is a very real health hazard.

    3. Thanks alot Doug! I didn’t think Roa had progressed reducing his BB with the tacky baseball. Plus vs the best hitting Southern League team, Tennessee on 5/30 he threw 3 IP, 6h, 6ER 2BB & 6 k’s. Maybe he should be trying to UNtack the baseball before he throws it! If it works, Joe needs to UNBoyle that tacky ball too! LOL.

      What do you think about these pitchers that the Reds should have at the top of their next promotion list with each pitchers justification? With many Cincy’s starters injured, and the current bullpen throwing some of the most pitches per pitcher so far, they next 3 months, they’ll need help from AAA to get players on the 40 man roster, throw first pitch strikes, hit the catchers mitt with Every pitch, pitch to contact, not nibble and the ump calls borderline pitches balls. Plus Cincy needs more LHP relievers! Do this so they dont overpay for a rental reliever with one of their prized catches from last years trades: Marte, Arroyo, Acosta, or Rodruiguez

      2023 Draft: Needed upper level starters last year in trades but trade teams didnt want to include starters SOOOO this year draft rounds 1-5, add some much needed upper level arms like they did with Abbott in 2021. With the Cincy starters being so young and being more throwers than pitchers (more pitches for each IP, they have no mid-career pitchers to learn “pitching to contact” from. The Cincy staff still needs to “hit the mitt”, location, location, location of pitches. Same with relievers. Thats why so many young pitchers are on the DL now: Santillan etc.

      AA to AAA:
      Fisher LHP, Age 26: ERA 3.3, WHIP 1.1, 27IP, 18 h, 11B 31 K.
      Kravetz LHP Age 26, ERA 2.7, WHIP 1.0, 27 IP 19 h 9 BB 30 K.

      A+ to AA: 3 RHP’s
      Gozzo Age 26, ERA AND WHIP: POINT 9! .9, 29 IP 15 H, 12BB 30 K, pitched AFL 2022
      Gayman: Age 25, ERA 2.7, 1.0 WHIP, 33IP, 29H, 5BB 25 K,
      Timpanelli: Age 24, ERA 3.1, 1.1 WHIP, 29 IP 22H, 29K. pitched AFL 2022

      AFL level is between AA & AAA. Remaining AA & A+ relievers mainly need to reduce BB/IP before promotion.

    4. Seems like a good move given Krall’s implication that right now the asking prices are too high

      1. I’ve watched Roa a handful of times this year. I think AAA will be a good test for him, though I really don’t see him much as a starter as he unravels a bit too much. His stuff is pretty good, however, enough to get a bunch of K’s. But I’d guess he can get ML batters out in shorter stints.

        Roa and Williamson both might fit into a Tampa Bay opener pitching model, IMO. Before Williamson’s rainy day start, his stuff in his previous outing was amped up, and I half think he was told to go out and go as hard as he could as long as he could (He’d been seen as a piggyback guy before they needed him to start that night).

        Who knows? These are really unusual times with the shambles of a starting staff.

    5. I think it’s very likely José Acuña and Julian Aguiar will go to AA in those next moves coming soon.

      1. Hey RGB, those two are very young (22 & 20) and haven’t pitched over 100 inning a year. Why not take their time with these two especially Acuna and fill the A+ with this years draftees.

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